We are up. Who do you want for pick 81, and who do you think they will take?

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, cnmilton said:

Once DL Hall and Rodriguez move to the MLB team, wjo is going to be left to pitch for the Orioles? This system is going to be completely bereft of any significant pitching. It makes no sense.

If you look at Houston from just before Elias got there in 2012 until he left .. it may make more sense

On all their winning teams the only guys who were homegrown right out of the draft were Dallas Keuchel who was a 7th round pick and Lance McCullers who was a first rounder. 

They traded and bought every other starting pitcher they used from two years before they started really winning through the first World Series years … guys like Mike Fiers, Scott Feldman, Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock, verlander, Greinke, Wade Miley, Collin McHugh, Scott Kazmir, etc etc 

 

Elias does not have a record of drafting pitchers in upper rounds very often  

 

 

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, baltfan said:

One thing that is getting lost a bit in this discussion is that generally it seems like the prospect gurus like the Orioles draft so far including all of their picks with maybe the exception of Fabian to a certain degree.  Last year, a lot of the the gurus seemed less than impressed with the guys we took after Cowser in light of the money that was saved.  

1.  Where are you seeing this?

2. Should we really care what the “prospect gurus” think?

[Brooks The Great]

42 minutes ago, cnmilton said:

That's all well and good if the franchises goal is to compete for a wild card spot, but to legitimately be able to compete for a World Series title, high end SP is an essential

Grayson Rodriguez projects to be a high end SP. And there are multiple ways of acquiring high end SPs outside of the draft. 

[tntoriole]

Or maybe Elias just got burnt and it made him leery of high round pitching

 

Elias and others picked George Springer in first round and the next year was Carlo Correa .. then they picked Mark Appel the following year and Brady Aikens the following years thus going back to first round position player choice the following year with Alex Bregman 

[waroriole]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

1.  Where are you seeing this?

2. Should we really care what the “prospect gurus” think?

Exactly. If Mike Elias wasn’t a GM, wouldn’t he be a prospect guru?

[Low Country Bird]

1 hour ago, Mizerooskie said:

'05.  Got to see the Greene/Baker/Johnson team, so that was cool.

Definitely rooting against Smith being taken! 

Benson, Koch, Vining and Matz with LeCroy and Burnham doing the damage, for me.  If he makes it out of this round, I think we are good.  

[RZNJ]

Look at the Houston Astros starting rotation.  They were all signed between 2015 and 2017 as 19-20-21 year old FA pitchers from Latin America.  I'm not sure how much Elias had to do with that but I certainly believe he's trying to duplicate that process here with the Orioles.   You sign pitchers in large numbers.   The attrition rates still apply but it's survival of the fittest and you don't need to draft 2 or 3 HS pitchers in the U.S.  Instead you sign 10 pitchers for 10K, 20K, 50K.    We can see the tip of the Iceburg down at Delmarva right now the Juan Delosantos, Edgar Portes, and about 6 other Latin arms down there.   Tough to see what we have yet.   Maybe nothing.   But that is the plan I see in place.

[geschinger]

11 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

If you look at Houston from just before Elias got there in 2012 until he left .. it may make more sense

On all their winning teams the only guys who were homegrown right out of the draft were Dallas Keuchel who was a 7th round pick and Lance McCullers who was a first rounder. 

They traded and bought every other starting pitcher they used from two years before they started really winning through the first World Series years … guys like Mike Fiers, Scott Feldman, Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock, verlander, Greinke, Wade Miley, Collin McHugh, Scott Kazmir, etc etc 

Elias does not have a record of drafting pitchers in upper rounds very often  

This.  Almost nothing that Elias has done during his tenure in Baltimore is surprising if one looks at what worked and didn't work from his time in Houston.  And Keuchel was like Grayson and Hall in that he was inherited from a previous regime not a draft success story for Luhnow/Elias etc..

[Low Country Bird]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Look at the Houston Astros starting rotation.  They were all signed between 2015 and 2017 as 19-20-21 year old FA pitchers from Latin America.  I'm not sure how much Elias had to do with that but I certainly believe he's trying to duplicate that process here with the Orioles.   You sign pitchers in large numbers.   The attrition rates still apply but it's survival of the fittest and you don't need to draft 2 or 3 HS pitchers in the U.S.  Instead you sign 10 pitchers for 10K, 20K, 50K.    We can see the tip of the Iceburg down at Delmarva right now the Juan Delosantos, Edgar Portes, and about 6 other Latin arms down there.   Tough to see what we have yet.   Maybe nothing.   But that is the plan I see in place.

The Rays A team is here in Charleston.  I take my boys to a few games a season and we sit down near the bullpen.  Virtually all of those pitchers are from Latin America.  18-21 years old, big kids and all throw gas.  So it appears the Rays also take that approach.

[tntoriole]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Look at the Houston Astros starting rotation.  They were all signed between 2015 and 2017 as 19-20-21 year old FA pitchers from Latin America.  I'm not sure how much Elias had to do with that but I certainly believe he's trying to duplicate that process here with the Orioles.   You sign pitchers in large numbers.   The attrition rates still apply but it's survival of the fittest and you don't need to draft 2 or 3 HS pitchers in the U.S.  Instead you sign 10 pitchers for 10K, 20K, 50K.    We can see the tip of the Iceburg down at Delmarva right now the Juan Delosantos, Edgar Portes, and about 6 other Latin arms down there.   Tough to see what we have yet.   Maybe nothing.   But that is the plan I see in place.

That is easier to do with a Verlander, Greinke,  McCullers , Odorizzi also in rotation last year or this year .  I think it is a replacement plan but the Astros won their championships almost exclusively with non organization pitchers 

[cnmilton]

Ok, this information makes me feel somewhat better about the lack of draft capital towards pitching in the draft. Thank you for the informative posts.

[Sports Guy]

Doesn’t seem like they really took an overslot.  Seemingly no intention (ie not allowed) of using the money for that can be used over your bonus pool.

Shame that ownership is still making them play this game with an arm tied behind their backs.

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Doesn’t seem like they really took an overslot.  Seemingly no intention (ie not allowed) of using the money for that can be used over your bonus pool.

Shame that ownership is still making them play this game with an arm tied behind their backs.

What do you mean by this?

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Or maybe Elias just got burnt and it made him leery of high round pitching

 

Elias and others picked George Springer in first round and the next year was Carlo Correa .. then they picked Mark Appel the following year and Brady Aikens the following years thus going back to first round position player choice the following year with Alex Bregman 

Elias himself was a college pitcher who hurt his arm.   I’m sure he’s very aware of what can happen with pitchers.   

But by the way, Springer was picked by the pre-Luhnow/Elias regime in Houston.  
 

[baltfan]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Doesn’t seem like they really took an overslot.  Seemingly no intention (ie not allowed) of using the money for that can be used over your bonus pool.

Shame that ownership is still making them play this game with an arm tied behind their backs.

Until we see the actual amount spent, it’s all speculation.  We took a fair amount of sophomores that might cost more than people on this board might think