We are up. Who do you want for pick 81, and who do you think they will take?

[Flash- bd]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Brad Ciolek said unequivocally that they're sticking to their board. 

 

 

I wonder what people like Mountcastle and Hays think when they see stuff like this, with so much emphasis on OBP. 

 

I love it, mind. But it kinda makes you feel like their days are numbered with this organization (something I'm not really against). 

[brvn52]

Who do I want? Brock Porter. But that's a pipedream and we probably don't have the cash to sign him anyway. Bradley Loftin would be a nice pickup at 81. 

Who do I think? Sonny DiChiara somewhat fits Elias and co.'s type. At least with the bat. Huge year this year at Auburn. Very similar to Wagner in that sense. 

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

 

I wonder what people like Mountcastle and Hays think when they see stuff like this, with so much emphasis on OBP. 

 

I love it, mind. But it kinda makes you feel like their days are numbered with this organization (something I'm not really against). 

You know...psychobabble wise for some of the important players....Holliday over Jones probably feels good.

Mullins can play without an end in sight to his CF tenure.     Gunnar and Westburg can work on letting go of the idea they are a SS.

I am waiting expectantly for the first 20-30 games to see how much Jackson Holliday "needs to work on his positional flexibility".

[baltfan]

6 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

 

I wonder what people like Mountcastle and Hays think when they see stuff like this, with so much emphasis on OBP. 

 

I love it, mind. But it kinda makes you feel like their days are numbered with this organization (something I'm not really against). 

I imagine it is more complicated than that.  It seems the Astros became convinced that some low OBP and higher strikeout people were ok but a lot of them were suboptimal for postseason reasons.  Mountcastle has the highest barrel rate on the team.  That ability may well make him more effective against better pitching than I guy with equal swing and miss but a better walk rate.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, DocJJ said:

I want Sam Horn for sentimental reasons!!!!

 

I was at a game where he hit 3 HR in one game for the Os.   I don't think he ever hit one again!

Vs. Kansas City?

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I of course agree but at some point is it fair to question if the O's model is accurately picking the BPA or if it has a bias against certain types of players?

It's fair to assume that the O's models right now are different than they were 365 days ago.

They're always evolving. I guarantee that they want to accurately pick BPA and I guarantee they're continuously looking for new methods to do so.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookinUp said:

It's fair to assume that the O's models right now are different than they were 365 days ago.

They're always evolving. I guarantee that they want to accurately pick BPA and I guarantee they're continuously looking for new methods to do so.

Sure, I agree with that.

I do think it is interesting when one model seemingly doesn't conform with the other models used in an industry.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, I agree with that.

I do think it is interesting when one model seemingly doesn't conform with the other models used in an industry.

The Ravens have taken some heat over the years because they aren’t placing the same value on some of the positions other teams are.  They are going against the norm.  Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t.

I mention this because Sig has had an impact on the Ravens and there are some similarities on how the 2 front offices are doing things.

[LookinUp]

IDK, it seems to conform pretty well with the Astros and the Rays, and maybe the Sox too. Seems different than the Padres, who are also smart.

It's anyone's guess. I do think it does have something to do with how the draft falls. I'm sure if it fell a little differently the O's could have taken a pitcher yesterday.

[Mizerooskie]

27 minutes ago, Low Country Bird said:

As a Clemson alum, this discussion is very interesting for both my O's and Tigers. 

First re Wagner, he was an absolute stud this year.  Any time we needed a big hit, he seemed to deliver.   Caden Grice, who we thought was our best player going into the season, was brutal this year.  Max picked up where Grice left off last year and carried the offense.  I don't think he's coming back to Clemson and think he will sign at or under slot.  We had a coaching change a month ago and while there's a great deal of excitement for Bakich, numerous players have left/transferred.  When Wagner announced he was leaving, there didn't seem to be any uncertainty.  And there doesn't seem to be any from the coaches that he's not coming back.  So I doubt he gives up the money (even at or under slot) to come back to a new coaching staff.  I don't see how he could have a better year than this year.  

As to the HS pitchers, both Porter and Tristan Smith are Clemson commits so it's been interesting watching them slide a bit (Porter more so than Smith).  Obviously, the hope at Clemson is that they are now priced out of any remaining slot money and will enroll in August.   While it worked out for us for Will Taylor, we were burned on Bubba Chandler last year so many are prepared that Porter will  be drafted today, sign an overslot deal and never step foot in a classroom at Clemson.    I just hope that at this point, it's either Clemson or the O's. 

Hello fellow Clemson alum!

[LookinUp]

I do have a random thought about this next pick...

If the O's really do think they can squeeze value out of lesser heralded college arms, doesn't that mean they could target those arms for savings with other picks and still get a lot of value through their models?

Seems to me that an over slot guy would go against their risk model, but that they could gain value in under slot guys.

So maybe over slot works here.

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Low Country Bird said:

As a Clemson alum, this discussion is very interesting for both my O's and Tigers. 

First re Wagner, he was an absolute stud this year.  Any time we needed a big hit, he seemed to deliver.   Caden Grice, who we thought was our best player going into the season, was brutal this year.  Max picked up where Grice left off last year and carried the offense.  I don't think he's coming back to Clemson and think he will sign at or under slot.  We had a coaching change a month ago and while there's a great deal of excitement for Bakich, numerous players have left/transferred.  When Wagner announced he was leaving, there didn't seem to be any uncertainty.  And there doesn't seem to be any from the coaches that he's not coming back.  So I doubt he gives up the money (even at or under slot) to come back to a new coaching staff.  I don't see how he could have a better year than this year.  

As to the HS pitchers, both Porter and Tristan Smith are Clemson commits so it's been interesting watching them slide a bit (Porter more so than Smith).  Obviously, the hope at Clemson is that they are now priced out of any remaining slot money and will enroll in August.   While it worked out for us for Will Taylor, we were burned on Bubba Chandler last year so many are prepared that Porter will  be drafted today, sign an overslot deal and never step foot in a classroom at Clemson.    I just hope that at this point, it's either Clemson or the O's. 

Excellent post and info.

[Just Regular]

37 minutes ago, Low Country Bird said:

As a Clemson alum, this discussion is very interesting for both my O's and Tigers. 

Thanks for the good post!

If the Orioles or any other Club stop Porter or Smith, should we count that as keeping them out of the ACC or the SEC?

[Low Country Bird]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Thanks for the good post!

If the Orioles or any other Club stop Porter or Smith, should we count that as keeping them out of the ACC or the SEC?

Likely the ACC.  That damn Grant of Rights clause is likely keeping us (and FSU and Miami) from going anywhere unless ESPN gets involved and negotiates a buy-out with the conference.

[Low Country Bird]

22 minutes ago, Mizerooskie said:

Hello fellow Clemson alum!

Hello back.  '98 for me.  How about you?