Why isn’t Stowers here?

Roll Tide · August 12, 2022

1 hour ago, seak05 said:

Then why ever bring anyone up, why is Vavra up? The orioles weren’t planning on winning this year, why is Adley up?

You can twist yourself into circles with “service time games”. They do happen, and it does matter. But how often, & how much it matters is way overstated. You potentially do it with someone like Gunnar, I think this board rates Stowers higher then most other places.

Now your getting ridiculous! Openings were created on the roster by moving Mancini and Lopez. The spot filled by Vavra. Vavra was deemed the most ready so he was brought up. I’d imagine Stowers would be up if the team had not traded for Phillips. So Elias chose to trade for Phillips and $600,000 over bringing up Stowers. It seems to me that he’s playing the clock game. Otherwise why would he bring in a player with a mediocre bat? In Roch’s article today he answers questions from his mail bag. He mentions the team being happy with their infield defense. Perhaps the team is more happy with the outfield defense with Phillips over Stowers. I don’t know Elias’ reason and I’m speculating why he chose the current path. If Elias wanted Stowers in the majors he’d already be here. He’s not benching or releasing Odor. He’s getting decent production out of McKenna and Nevin (3 for his last 12) considering the sporadic playing time. Folks here want to come up with additional ways to get Stowers up here by cutting Nevin and playing Odor at 3B when Urias needs a break. But, that means you are carrying 6 outfielders which is too many. He also advocated benching Vavra to make an everyday role for Stowers. Why anybody would think it’s a good idea to take Vavra’s bat out of the lineup is beyond me. He looks to be a .300 hitter with a .350+ OBP. Next year he’s probably everyday at 2B once Odor is cleared off the roster.

I’m not advocating on who should or shouldn’t be here or why. I’m just giving my opinion on what I think Elias is doing based on his actions and what he’s saying. I trust what he is saying based on his track record of telling us the plan and then seeing the stuff happen.

Edited August 12, 2022 by Roll Tide

ManciniFan · August 12, 2022

Can_of_corn · August 12, 2022

To be fair he'd be unlikely to maintain that rate in the majors.

He should still get a shot.

DrungoHazewood · August 12, 2022

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

To be fair he'd be unlikely to maintain that rate in the majors.

He should still get a shot.

Looking at recent Norfolk players who've graduated to the majors like Jones, McKenna, Nevin, Stewart, a 30% increase in Ks seems typical. Rutschman barely increased (4%), Jahmai Jones shot up by 59%. Median is somewhere around 30%.

So I'd expect Stowers to strike out in 33-37% of MLB PAs. There aren't a whole lot of good players who strike out that much. Patrick Wisdom, I guess.

I did a little math. Let's say he strikes out in 35% of PAs, continues to have the .342ish BABIP he has in AAA, and walks a little less. That would change his current .273/.358/.523 slash line into something like .233/.310/.454, good for a .764 OPS. That's okay, that's Austin Hayes-ish productivity. But I don't know if maintaining his AAA BABIP is realistic. If that falls to .300 he ends up with an OPS in the .700 range.

His challenge will be to either keep hitting the ball very hard when he hits it, or have his K rate fall in the lower end of what I expect.

RZNJ · August 12, 2022

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Looking at recent Norfolk players who've graduated to the majors like Jones, McKenna, Nevin, Stewart, a 30% increase in Ks seems typical. Rutschman barely increased (4%), Jahmai Jones shot up by 59%. Median is somewhere around 30%.

So I'd expect Stowers to strike out in 33-37% of MLB PAs. There aren't a whole lot of good players who strike out that much. Patrick Wisdom, I guess.

I did a little math. Let's say he strikes out in 35% of PAs, continues to have the .342ish BABIP he has in AAA, and walks a little less. That would change his current .273/.358/.523 slash line into something like .233/.310/.454, good for a .764 OPS. That's okay, that's Austin Hayes-ish productivity. But I don't know if maintaining his AAA BABIP is realistic. If that falls to .300 he ends up with an OPS in the .700 range.

His challenge will be to either keep hitting the ball very hard when he hits it, or have his K rate fall in the lower end of what I expect.

Mountcastles k rate was 23.5%. In the majors it’s 25%. Every player is different, of course.

Aristotelian · August 12, 2022

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Now your getting ridiculous! Openings were created on the roster by moving Mancini and Lopez. The spot filled by Vavra. Vavra was deemed the most ready so he was brought up. I’d imagine Stowers would be up if the team had not traded for Phillips. So Elias chose to trade for Phillips and $600,000 over bringing up Stowers. It seems to me that he’s playing the clock game. Otherwise why would he bring in a player with a mediocre bat? In Roch’s article today he answers questions from his mail bag. He mentions the team being happy with their infield defense. Perhaps the team is more happy with the outfield defense with Phillips over Stowers. I don’t know Elias’ reason and I’m speculating why he chose the current path. If Elias wanted Stowers in the majors he’d already be here. He’s not benching or releasing Odor. He’s getting decent production out of McKenna and Nevin (3 for his last 12) considering the sporadic playing time. Folks here want to come up with additional ways to get Stowers up here by cutting Nevin and playing Odor at 3B when Urias needs a break. But, that means you are carrying 6 outfielders which is too many. He also advocated benching Vavra to make an everyday role for Stowers. Why anybody would think it’s a good idea to take Vavra’s bat out of the lineup is beyond me. He looks to be a .300 hitter with a .350+ OBP. Next year he’s probably everyday at 2B once Odor is cleared off the roster.

I’m not advocating on who should or shouldn’t be here or why. I’m just giving my opinion on what I think Elias is doing based on his actions and what he’s saying. I trust what he is saying based on his track record of telling us the plan and then seeing the stuff happen.

I think Phillips is just insurance for Hays who was fighting injury at the time. I don't understand the thinking on Stowers but I don't think it has anything to do with Phillips.

DrungoHazewood · August 12, 2022

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mountcastles k rate was 23.5%. In the majors it’s 25%. Every player is different, of course.

Sure. Like I said, hope for the low end on the strikeout rate. But that would still put Stowers over 30%. Unless something changes he's just not going to be a guy who hits .260-.280 in the majors.

DenaOsHon · August 12, 2022

He deserves a shot but my expectations are low.

RZNJ · August 12, 2022

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Sure. Like I said, hope for the low end on the strikeout rate. But that would still put Stowers over 30%. Unless something changes he's just not going to be a guy who hits .260-.280 in the majors.

Ok. Just want to point out a few things. Stowers struck out 32.5 % in 2021, with most PA below AAA. This year at AAA it’s a fairly reasonable 24.7%. Not sure how many ML successful players had a K rate like that at AAA. So, he has shown the ability to make some adjustment. I would hope that’s a good sign moving forward. There are only 6 hitters in MLB with enough AB to qualify that K over 30%. Wisdom is the highest at 33%. Your expectation that Stowers K’s between 33% to 37% seems to predict that he’ll be a total washout. Could be.

Not sure I want to compare Stowers to McKenna and Jahmai Jones when it comes to transitioning to the majors but we don’t know if he’s more Mountcastle or more McKenna at the moment. Stowers SEEMS like a better prospect than everyone you mentioned, including D.J. Stewart.

LookinUp · August 12, 2022

The O's paid for their roster decisions last night.

It's the 9th inning, Urias is on first and we hit Mateo.

That's not good. Phillips pinch ran. We had Mateo scheduled with Nevin, Chirinos and McKenna on the bench. If we pinch run for Urias, it should have been McKenna and a really potent bat should have pinch hit for Mateo.

DrungoHazewood · August 12, 2022

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok. Just want to point out a few things. Stowers struck out 32.5 % in 2021, with most PA below AAA. This year at AAA it’s a fairly reasonable 24.7%. Not sure how many ML successful players had a K rate like that at AAA. So, he has shown the ability to make some adjustment. I would hope that’s a good sign moving forward. There are only 6 hitters in MLB with enough AB to qualify that K over 30%. Wisdom is the highest at 33%. Your expectation that Stowers K’s between 33% to 37% seems to predict that he’ll be a total washout. Could be.

Not sure I want to compare Stowers to McKenna and Jahmai Jones when it comes to transitioning to the majors but we don’t know if he’s more Mountcastle or more McKenna at the moment. Stowers SEEMS like a better prospect than everyone you mentioned, including D.J. Stewart.

I'm not predicting anything besides I think it's very unlikely he'll hit for high averages in the majors. Whether he's a star or a regular or a washout will largely depend on if he strikes out 28% or 33% or higher. Hopefully he makes some adjustments and it's on the low end.

It also worries me a bit that he's kind of old for a prospect. Turns 25 in January and has seven MLB plate appearances. I don't have a crystal ball, but that usually means he's closer to peak ability than someone like Mountcastle who has 1136 PAs and is less than a year older than Stowers. But, everyone is different. Hopefully soon he gets a chance and takes advantage of it.

LookinUp · August 12, 2022

Re: age, I'm not bothered. He's 24. There was a Covid year. He's been ready for months.

I think he's essentially Santander but more likely to be healthy, play better defense and be cheaper.