Mike Trout to the Orioles?

[Il BuonO]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Now, is he a risk?  Hell yea he is but for me, the risk is in the last 3-4 years of the deal.  I’m good with trading these 2 for that. 

Im not risking top level prospects for him but I will risk a good CFer and a role player 4th OFer for him.

Agree with this, but I don’t think Mullins and Hays gets it done.

[Ripken]

Let's say Trout is a FA at the end of this season... who would give him an 8/300? 

I would not.

Edited August 27, 2022 by Ripken

[Pickles]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I haven't bothered to look but I'm guessing that most if not all projections would have them under that threshold.

Well, they are inherently conservative, particularly with younger guys like Mullins and Hays.  I'm about to lay out a hypothetical.  Feel free to respond.

Edited August 27, 2022 by Pickles

[Pickles]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not using a different war for any reason other than fWAR is the only one I look at because it’s recognized as the best one.  It uses OAA for defense and, as Jon Shepherd recently discussed, it does a better job of evaluating park factors.

As for what I don’t like them going forward…that’s not entirely true.  I have said several times that I feel Mullins is a 2.5-4 WAR guy.  I was a lot more accurate on his production for this season than many others were.  

I think he’s a good player and one that will bring us back pitching we need this offseason (I hope) but if we keep Him, we will have a good CFer.

I also like Hays and have said I want him to be the 4th OFer next year, getting 400ish at bats.  I don’t trust Hays.  He’s hurt too much and doesn’t produce for a lot of the season.  He isn’t patient at the plate and struggles vs righties.  He’s a solid role player type guy…a guy I think, going forward, is a 1-2 WAR player (like this year).

Now, as for Trout, the back injury does worry me but not enough to where I wouldn’t acquire him.  We have tons of payroll flexibility for the next 5+ years.   He’s an elite player and a guy who should be elite beyond this year and a guy, with this current young core, that makes us better.

Now, is he a risk?  Hell yea he is but for me, the risk is in the last 3-4 years of the deal.  I’m good with trading these 2 for that. 
 

Im not risking top level prospects for him but I will risk a good CFer and a role player 4th OFer for him.

 

Let's use a different hypothetical then.  One far more forgiving of your take.

Let's say Mullins and Hays combine for 15 WAR the next 3 years.  For me that is the "reasonable" worst case scenario.  They have an 80% chance of doing that imo.

And let's say Trout doesn't drop off.  He keeps pumping out 7 WAR years and is worth 21 WAR the next three years.  He has about a 20% of doing that imo.

Ok, you can say, see we pick up 6 wins.

But we spent, guessing 40 mil for Hullins/Mays based on what I assume were some numbers Frobby put some thought into and lowered because we're lowering their performances significantly and the 112 we'd owe Trout, we spent 70+ million more to do it.

Couldn't you get 6 wins on the free market for 70 million dollars?

You'd be paying over the market rates to get those six wins.

You could argue that it's actually more value than 6 wins due to consolidating the roster spot, and you wouldn't be wrong.

But where's that leave us: In a very, very rosy short-term projection, it could kinda maybe work out for the Orioles.

You know what I didn't mention?

Age.

Degenerative spinal condition.

5 years and almost 200 million dollars remaining on the contract in what should be Adley Rutschman's prime.

So the upside for this move is fairly small.  And the downside ranges from Glenn Davis to Chris Davis catastrophe.  

So maybe you could argue to do it, but only an arrogant fool would laugh at opposition to the idea.

 

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Mike Trout's ZIPS projection is 9.9 fWAR through 2024.  Cedric Mullins ZIPS by himself over the same time period is 7.5.  Hays adds another 3.5.  Regardless, that's 11 WAR over 2 years, for these 2 players, that are cost controlled, versus around 10 for Trout, with significantly higher injury risk and on a very long market rate contract.

 

My personal opinion is that Trout and Hays are being undersold by ZIPS and Mullins is being oversold.  But I don't think it changes the basis of the argument that the team isn't significantly better with Trout, and without Mullins or Hays, especially when we are also trading away potential replacements for them.

Yes but again, we aren’t going to play with 2 OFers.  So it’s Trout plus the other OFer replacing those guys vs Mullins and Hays.

I think you would be hard pressed to find a team that trades 3 2 win players for one 5 win player.  That’s essentially the argument here.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Let's use a different hypothetical then.  One far more forgiving of your take.

Let's say Mullins and Hays combine for 15 WAR the next 3 years.  For me that is the "reasonable" worst case scenario.  They have an 80% chance of doing that imo.

And let's say Trout doesn't drop off.  He keeps pumping out 7 WAR years and is worth 21 WAR the next three years.  He has about a 20% of doing that imo.

Ok, you can say, see we pick up 6 wins.

But we spent, guessing 40 mil for Hullins/Mays based on what I assume were some numbers Frobby put some thought into and lowered because we're lowering their performances significantly and the 112 we'd owe Trout, we spent 70+ million more to do it.

Couldn't you get 6 wins on the free market for 70 million dollars?

You'd be paying over the market rates to get those six wins.

You could argue that it's actually more value than 6 wins due to consolidating the roster spot, and you wouldn't be wrong.

But where's that leave us: In a very, very rosy short-term projection, it could kinda maybe work out for the Orioles.

You know what I didn't mention?

Age.

Degenerative spinal condition.

5 years and almost 200 million dollars remaining on the contract in what should be Adley Rutschman's prime.

So the upside for this move is fairly small.  And the downside ranges from Glenn Davis to Chris Davis catastrophe.  

So maybe you could argue to do it, but only an arrogant fool would laugh at opposition to the idea.

 

You lost me at 80% chance of that happening.  You are just so over the top optimistic of those 2 that I can’t have a conversation with you about it.

The difference between us are the expectations of the players.  You are higher on them than I am. That’s fine.  
 

And you are so butt hurt over laughing emojis. Lol. Sensitive much?

Edited August 28, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Bemorewins]

26 minutes ago, Ripken said:

Let's say Trout is a FA at the end of this season... who would give him an 8/300? 

I would not.

EXACTLY

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, Ripken said:

Let's say Trout is a FA at the end of this season... who would give him an 8/300? 

I would not.

Yea I would consider it.  Need to know what my doctors think he can be for the next 3-5 years.  Obviously, the physical and doctors opinions have to be on the side of him being able to play at a high level for that time frame for any of this to matter.

I don’t care what he can give me for 8 years..I care what he can give me for 3-5 years.  If I can win a title or 2 with him, I don’t really care about the last few years.

That being said, there are plenty of other moves I would like to make and would consider making before doing anything with Trout.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

You lost me at 80% chance of that happening.  You are just so over the top optimistic of those 2 that I can’t have a conversation with you about it.

The difference between us are the expectations of the players.  You are higher on them than I am. That’s fine.  
 

And you are so butt hurt over laughing emojis. Lol. Sensitive much?

Oh I think you who said Hays is a fourth outfielder at best, and Mullins might be a platoon player in this conversation don't have a clue about their value.  Hallas just laid out your precious FWAR projections.  They mirror much of what I said above.

And it wasn't just the laughing emojis.  It was also the open ended comments without actually engaging on the topic.  

Because once you get over the fangirl mIkE tRoUt reaction, it's pretty clear to see that I'm correct.  Trading Mullins and Hays for Trout doesn't make any sense for the Orioles.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

Oh I think you who said Hays is a fourth outfielder at best, and Mullins might be a platoon player in this conversation don't have a clue about their value.  Hallas just laid out your precious FWAR projections.  They mirror much of what I said above.

And it wasn't just the laughing emojis.  It was also the open ended comments without actually engaging on the topic.  

Because once you get over the fangirl mIkE tRoUt reaction, it's pretty clear to see that I'm correct.  Trading Mullins and Hays for Trout doesn't make any sense for the Orioles.

Sure thing.

[Hallas]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but again, we aren’t going to play with 2 OFers.  So it’s Trout plus the other OFer replacing those guys vs Mullins and Hays.

I think you would be hard pressed to find a team that trades 3 2 win players for one 5 win player.  That’s essentially the argument here.

 

Except the proposed trade is not 3 2-win players, its a 3.5 to 4 win player, and a 2-2.5 win player.  That's 2 above average starters, that are also younger, not injury risks, and cost controlled.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure thing.

I'll take that for the concession it is.  Maybe we could take this show on the road sports guy.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Pickles

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Except the proposed trade is not 3 2-win players, its a 3.5 to 4 win player, and a 2-2.5 win player.  That's 2 above average starters, that are also younger, not injury risks, and cost controlled.

I’m aware..I’m just making a general comment. Saying multiple players are worth marginally more than 1 player doesn’t really help an argument. 

I mean, take Trout when he is in his normal 8+ WAR years.  Do you think you could have get Trout for 3 3 win players?  I mean, of course not.

I mentioned earlier..Kremer, T Wells,  Lyles and another Os pitcher had a higher WAR than Alcantara.  Would Miami trade him for those 4?  

And are you really saying Hays isn’t an injury risk?

Edited August 28, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I'll take that for the concession it is.  Maybe we could take this show on the road sports guy.

Yep..you sure showed me.  You have a crystal ball and hypotheticals.  
 

You have shown me proof of the future. You are amazing.  

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yep..you sure showed me.  You have a crystal ball and hypotheticals.  
 

You have shown me proof of the future. You are amazing.  

No, no, no we don't judge outcomes.  We judge processes.