Elias' first Draft

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, jabba72 said:

I didnt like the Rutschman pick. Though Abrams or Witt were the better prospects. Looks like the correct pick was made though, still time for Witt to figure it out defensively.  And Abrams has debuted so he's not too far off either. 

It will be years before we really know who turned out best.  Here’s what we know now: we didn’t miss.  We got an excellent, impact player.   And that’s the most important thing.  

Looking beyond the top three picks, all of whom are in the majors:

3. Watson looks like a miss.

4. Ortiz looks like he’ll reach the majors.  

5. Hernaiz has a decent chance to make the majors.  

6. Handley has a decent chance to make the majors.  

Everyone beyond that looks like a long shot, but odds are that a couple of them will get a cup of coffee.   

All in all, that’s a real good draft.  You can argue Adley was an obvious choice.  Gunnar was not.  If he pans out like we’re hoping, this could be an absolutely brilliant draft.  

 

[jabba72]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

It will be years before we really know who turned out best.  Here’s what we know now: we didn’t miss.  We got an excellent, impact player.   And that’s the most important thing.  

Looking beyond the top three picks, all of whom are in the majors:

3. Watson looks like a miss.

4. Ortiz looks like he’ll reach the majors.  

5. Hernaiz has a decent chance to make the majors.  

6. Handley has a decent chance to make the majors.  

Everyone beyond that looks like a long shot, but odds are that a couple of them will get a cup of coffee.   

All in all, that’s a real draft.  You can argue Adley was an obvious choice.  Gunnar was not.  If he pans out like we’re hoping, this could be an absolutely brilliant draft.  

 

Just the top three of AR, GH and Stowers being impact players would make it an epic draft, possibly the best in history. I haven't looked into it. What Ortiz and Hernaiz are doing on top of that makes it unreal. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Just the top three of AR, GH and Stowers being impact players would make it an epic draft, possibly the best in history. I haven't looked into it. What Ortiz and Hernaiz are doing on top of that makes it unreal. 

Naw.

1968 Dodgers.

11 future big leaguers who combined for a total of 234.8 rWAR.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Naw.

1968 Dodgers.

11 future big leaguers who combined for a total of 234.8 rWAR.

 

 

 

I expect Adley to top that by himself.  

[waroriole]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Naw.

1968 Dodgers.

11 future big leaguers who combined for a total of 234.8 rWAR.

 

 

 

23 All Star appearances among 6 players. Some very good players:

Steve Garvey

Ron Cey

Doyle Alexander

Bill Buckner

Davey Lopes

https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-class-of-1968-tops-list-of-10-best-drafts

Edited September 1, 2022 by waroriole

[yark14]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Who hired them?

Who did the dirty work?

I think Elias has dont a hell of a job, my whole point is that the developmental staff deserve credit.  Go team!

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, yark14 said:

Who did the dirty work?

I think Elias has dont a hell of a job, my whole point is that the developmental staff deserve credit.  Go team!

I was just pointing out that Elias does get some credit for building a top development staff, not just being a good drafter.   The coaches absolutely deserve lots of credit.  The system really is clicking on all cylinders.  

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I expect Adley to top that by himself.  

He's gonna hit like Mike Trout, not get injured, then drag out his career at catcher like Carlton Fisk did, putting up a 5 win seasons at the age of 42.  I like the sound of that!

[deward]

Ironically, this draft may turn out to be the core of the rebuild, and it wasn't the result of any of the deliberate tanking. 

[btdart20]

16 hours ago, yark14 said:

I think just as much credit should go to the minor league coaches that developed these players.  We have an incredible player development system.

There was a Driveline poll a few weeks back that asked what was more important 1: scouting/identifying talent or 2: developing talent.  Obviously “both” is the right answer but they took that option away.  Developing talent won as more important to an organization.  Not that polls mean much but considering the audience and the stats behind Driveline, it’s a pretty good vote of confidence!

It’s so good to be on this side of competence seeing results and hearing near universal accolades about the O’s player development compared to the years of famine!

[btdart20]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

ll in all, that’s a real good draft.  You can argue Adley was an obvious choice.  Gunnar was not.  If he pans out like we’re hoping, this could be an absolutely brilliant draft.  

Gunnar was a first round talent with signability issues because he wanted top 10ish type money.  He fell.  Elias drafted him and the overslot panned out!  

When we debate overslot, Gunnar’s name should be mentioned.  Plus we got the #1 projected guy in that draft too!  So overslot doesn’t have to compromise first round talent.

[DrungoHazewood]

The 2019 draft has already provided more value than the Orioles' 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, close to 1993, 1994, close to 1995, 1998, 2000, 2002, about even with 2004, close to 2005 and 2008.  There are another half dozen or so they'll pass in the next 2-3 years.  And I didn't go back before 1980.

So it's likely that by 2024 or 2025 this will already be a well above-average draft for the Orioles, with probably 10+ years of accumulating value after that.

[sportsfan8703]

I could see Watson getting sent to the AFL just to get ABs. Plus Elias never really sends a slew of “prospects there. 
 

No need to start a AFL debate on the main board. 
 

Heck of a first draft by Elias. 

[jerios55]

Posting this for those that don't have all the picks remembered.   Some interesting info here as well. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The 2019 draft has already provided more value than the Orioles' 1980, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, close to 1993, 1994, close to 1995, 1998, 2000, 2002, about even with 2004, close to 2005 and 2008.  There are another half dozen or so they'll pass in the next 2-3 years.  And I didn't go back before 1980.

So it's likely that by 2024 or 2025 this will already be a well above-average draft for the Orioles, with probably 10+ years of accumulating value after that.

It doesn’t take much.  The drafts that stand out in the last quarter century are 1999 (55.1 rWAR - Roberts, Bedard etc.), 2003 (41.4 rWAR - Markakis, etc.), 2007 (49.2 rWAR - Arrieta, Wieters, etc.) and 2010 (52.0 rWAR - Machado, etc.).   Other than those, I’m not sure we’ve had a draft that produced 20 rWAR in that period.  

In a study I did of the 1998-2005 drafts, I found that the median draft for all 30 teams was 14.5, whereas the mean was 23.2.   https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/42459-what-constitutes-a-good-draft-my-study-of-1998-2005/#comment-2697018