Fangraphs makes some remarkable claims about Gunnar Henderson. Say he is better than Adley.

[Gurgi]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-orioles-are-now-gunnaring-for-a-wild-card-spot/

So just how good is Henderson? That’s a question that has shifted notably over the course of the minor league season. If you go back to the winter, he was considered an excellent prospect, ranking 66th in the FanGraphs Top 100 list and 53rd in the ZiPS Top 100. We weren’t outliers, either; among others, Keith Law at The Athletic and Baseball Prospectus also put him in their top 100s.

Henderson’s stock wasn’t poorly valued, but it shot up so quickly this year that you might think that it was a Reddit meme stonk like GameStop and AMC. Minor league translation printer goes brrr! Before the season, ZiPS only projected Henderson to amass 1.5 WAR in 2023 with a wRC+ of 87. We’ll get to that updated 2023 projection in a minute; let’s just say for now that it’s better.

The improvements made by Henderson in the minors this year were across the board, from power to plate discipline to defense. Combining his performances for Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, you get an overall line of .297/.416/.531 with 19 homers and 22 stolen bases in 112 games. That would be enough to make him the best first base prospect in baseball, considering he didn’t turn 21 until late June, but as a player who can legitimately play shortstop, that’s the kind of performance that puts you in the ultra-elite category.

Those are meatier projections than Adley Rutschman’s at this time last year, and that’s certainly not damning with faint praise!

[Can_of_corn]

That's not exactly what they are saying there.

I will say that given the age difference I would not be shocked if Gunnar accumulates more WAR over the course of his career.

 

This post is interesting.

Quote

It’s the kind of performance that makes you wonder if the O’s would have been better off calling Henderson up a month ago rather than yesterday. As of this moment, ZiPS projects the Orioles with a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs. Adding 0.7 wins, the amount ZiPS estimates he’d have added if he had been promoted after the All-Star break, doesn’t sound like a whole lot, but it’s enough to bump them to 19.1%.

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[waroriole]

Got someone’s attention:

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's not exactly what they are saying there.

I will say that given the age difference I would not be shocked if Gunnar accumulates more WAR over the course of his career.

 

This past is interesting.

 

#Eliasout  #Angelosyachtsrock  #Tennesseeorioles2024

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I will say that given the age difference I would not be shocked if Gunnar accumulates more WAR over the course of his career.

Three years difference in age among rookies of similar performance points to something like 50% more career WAR.  Catcher-shortstop comps are tricky, who knows what's going to happen with defensive metrics for catchers or robot umps canceling out framing.  But If they were the same position I'd say Gunnar was likely to have 20-30 more WAR just based on age and current performance.  How much development do you think Gunnar will have between now and 2025 when he's Adley's current age?

But, don't discount the value of having an All Star level catcher through his prime.  It really only takes about 45 WAR to get a catcher on the Cooperstown shortlist. A shortstop probably needs 55 or 60.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Three years difference in age among rookies of similar performance points to something like 50% more career WAR.  Catcher-shortstop comps are tricky, who knows what's going to happen with defensive metrics for catchers or robot umps canceling out framing.  But If they were the same position I'd say Gunnar was likely to have 20-30 more WAR just based on age and current performance.  How much development do you think Gunnar will have between now and 2025 when he's Adley's current age?

But, don't discount the value of having an All Star level catcher through his prime.  It really only takes about 45 WAR to get a catcher on the Cooperstown shortlist. A shortstop probably needs 55 or 60.

I wasn't planning on discounting the value of an All Star catcher through his prime but thanks for the warning.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wasn't planning on discounting the value of an All Star catcher through his prime but thanks for the warning.

Just making sure you're keeping up.

[Alasdaire]

I wonder if we see a Ray Lewis/Ed Reed dynamic between Adley/Gunnar.

Non-Ravens fans will tell you that Reed was the better player, which might be true if you're only considering on-field ability. Ray had HOF-worthy stats in his own right, but Ravens fans know that Ray had this transcendent ability to elevate the play of everyone around him in a way that made the entire team better. Since Adley has been called up, the team has become contenders almost overnight.

In the same way that Ray did the dance or made speeches that fans of other teams found cringe but Ravens fans/player loved, Adley has these quirks like going to the mound after every inning. And Adley's leadership goes back to college when his team won the CWS. Ray and Adley both play positions entrusted with many responsibilities and were drafted by new regimes to bring the organization to relevance.

I'm just making a lighthearted analogy, but I do think there are intangible/non-quantifiable traits that matter, and Adley seems like one of those guys who has them in spades.

[Frobby]

Hey, I’m not going to choose between them when I can have both.   

And by the way, I firmly believe that Grayson Rodriguez is on that level.  
 

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hey, I’m not going to choose between them when I can have both.   

And by the way, I firmly believe that Grayson Rodriguez is on that level.  
 

And Cowser and Holliday could be as well! 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

And Cowser and Holliday could be as well! 

Personally I don’t think Cowser is on that level.  Holliday could be but he’ll have to prove it.  

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Personally I don’t think Cowser is on that level.  Holliday could be but he’ll have to prove it.  

The strikeouts really bother me about Cowser but that swing, that power.  I don’t know.  I think he’s got a chance of being something special with the bat.  

[DrungoHazewood]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hey, I’m not going to choose between them when I can have both.   

And by the way, I firmly believe that Grayson Rodriguez is on that level.  
 

Yea, but every single pitcher is about a week away from having a 7.50 ERA the rest of his injury-riddled career.

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yea, but every single pitcher is about a week away from having a 7.50 ERA the rest of his injury-riddled career.

Such a ray on sunshine.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Hey, I’m not going to choose between them when I can have both.   

And by the way, I firmly believe that Grayson Rodriguez is on that level.  
 

That is if he stays (gets?) healthy.