Average playoff team WAR

[btdart20]

This is related to the team construction and off-season goals to build a contender.  Obviously, there is more than one way to build a contender.  But article shows how we need to raise the bar in a few areas to be "an average playoff team".

Baseball’s Best Bats Are Headed to the Postseason | FanGraphs Baseball

The article is focused on the unique concentration of top hitters in the 2022 playoffs.  But I was drawn to the graph at the end of the article that shows the average batting and pitching WAR for playoff teams over the last 5 (non-2020) years.

It looks like the batting WAR ranged between 25-30.  And the pitching WAR ranged between 18-21.

O's hitting WAR is 18.6 while pitching is 11.5.  About a 28% short in hitting and closer to 40-50% short in pitching compared to the "average playoff team".  

How much of the hitting WAR gap can be overcome internally with prospects?  Mr. Prorater puts a full season of Gunnar at a 4.8 WAR (or adding 4 of the 7+ WAR we need).  Does 80-90% of Westburg/Norby/Ortiz trump anything Odor did?  Positive "Regression to mean" by Mountcastle?  I feel like we can gain over 7 WAR on the hitting side just in-house.

But pitching...  Lyles's 1.3 WAR will likely need filling.  Either way, we still need about a 10 WAR gain in pitching to be an average playoff team.

In 2022, we only have a few pitchers with a WAR greater than 1.  And none over a 2.  Do we see any of them making big gains?  Bradish?  Kremer?  Hall?  Any negative regression?  

Grayson will make a difference, but can we expect a Strider-esque 4.2 WAR?  A Kirby 3.1 WAR?  I'm hoping for something in the 2.5-3.0 (with easy room for more) ballpark is reasonable.  Less than half a season of Means could as well, but what's reasonable?   The highest WAR Means has had was 2019 at 3.2.  So, what can we expect from him coming off TJ?  Is replacing Lyles's 1.3 reasonable? 

Feels like we still have at least a 6-7 WAR gap from a pitching perspective.  TOR pitchers usually are about a 6-8 WAR.  (Rodon is the highest with a 6.2 this year.  deGrom was 9.5 a few years back.).

With our payroll flexibility, it certainly feels like a 2-3 year max AAV deal to a TOR SP should be on Elias' Christmas list this year!

[Pickles]

Good post.  As I have been saying for a while now, resources for external acquisitions should focus on the pitching side.

[AnythingO's]

I second what Pickles said! To take the pitching angle further, and to paraphrase JR on managing the total number of innings, I'll elaborate. Lyles, or his replacement needs to cover 175 innings. Kremer and Bradish are in the 120 inning range now so plus 50 gets them there (assuming health, etc.). That's 3 rotation spots. Grayson would be lucky under ME's arm protective inclinations (CoC can have fun with that one), to get 100 MLB innings in 2023. Similarly, Wells is at 100 and seems to have run out of gas.  Then we have Voth and Watkins around 75 (sorry for rounding I was an engineer and I do math in my head). Voth is a mystery to me but  Watkins is a multi-inning BP guy, his control needs to be perfect to work. While Wells has been effective starting, due to workload he may be better suited to relief. For 2023 (only), why not pair GR and T. Wells with Akin and Voth; starter gets 3-4 innings, tandem gets 2-3 innings. Roles can reverse every other start to manage innings. All 4 end up in the 75-100 inning range. Means coming back mid-year lets you trade someone not named GR. The remaining 6 roster positions are Bautista, Perez, Tate, Baker, potentially Watkins, plus another arm. I can hope for a Lopez DFA/non-tender or for ME to find a Pop-like arm. Nearly everyone wants a TOR, I refuse to believe JA will sign that check until he does, but I do't want to go there or discuss how much $$ SHOULD be available. Why doesn't (or can't) a tandem approach work for 2023 with the arms we have now???

[Jammer7]

Very interesting that with a big improvement, the Orioles are still at such a deficit. With a balanced schedule next season, it will be interesting to see what impact that has in this discussion. Will there be a wider disparity between the AL East teams (and Houston) and the rest of the league?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 hours ago, Pickles said:

Good post.  As I have been saying for a while now, resources for external acquisitions should focus on the pitching side.

100%. I think Elias is following the Astros model of developing an excess of position player talent, while trading for or signing the missing arms. 

[Frobby]

The way I see it, wins are a function of outscoring the other team and it doesn’t matter much how you do it.  Looking at runs scored vs. allowed for the six AL playoff teams:

Houston 724 - 513 = 211

New York 791 - 555 = 236

Cleveland 682 - 624 = 58

Toronto 761 - 672 = 89

Seattle 666 - 603 = 63

Tampa 660 - 598 = 62

The O’s are at 667 - 674 = -7.   At a minimum, the team’s run differential is 65 runs below a true playoff contender, more like 200 runs less than a really top team.   

Notably, the O’s have outscored Seattle and Tampa by a minimal amount, but have allowed more runs than all the playoff teams.  

I’m pretty indifferent as to whether the team improves by increasing its runs scored, decreasing its runs allowed, or a combination of both.   But I’ll say this: to be a truly top-level team, as opposed to a mere playoff contender, they need to do both.  To me, they probably need to improve by 50+ runs in both respects.  I think on both sides some of that could come from internal improvement, but we will need to acquire outside talent to achieve either goal as well.

 

 

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The way I see it, wins are a function of outscoring the other team and it doesn’t matter much how you do it.  Looking at runs scored vs. allowed for the six AL playoff teams:

Houston 724 - 513 = 211

New York 791 - 555 = 236

Cleveland 682 - 624 = 58

Toronto 761 - 672 = 89

Seattle 666 - 603 = 63

Tampa 660 - 598 = 62

The O’s are at 667 - 674 = -7.   At a minimum, the team’s run differential is 65 runs below a true playoff contender, more like 200 runs less than a really top team.   

Notably, the O’s have outscored Seattle and Tampa by a minimal amount, but have allowed more runs than all the playoff teams.  

I’m pretty indifferent as to whether the team improves by increasing its runs scored, decreasing its runs allowed, or a combination of both.   But I’ll say this: to be a truly top-level team, as opposed to a mere playoff contender, they need to do both.  To me, they probably need to improve by 50+ runs in both respects.  I think on both sides some of that could come from internal improvement, but we will need to acquire outside talent to achieve either goal as well.

 

 

What do you think the odds of them gaining 50 more runs scored in-house?  

What about allowing 50 less runs with in-house improvement?

Not sure I can sit the line but know my line for runs scored would be much higher.  Likely 2-3 times larger.

Some of that run differential gap will drop when we sign Verlander and Judge!   

[btdart20]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Likely 2-3 times larger.

That’s a stretch now that I think about it a bit more.  But in the right direction by order of degrees.

[jdwilde1]

The good thing when projecting the offensive side is that there is not too much of a regression concern because no one had a career type season.  Maybe Santander is an exception, but his “breakout” is more about staying healthy than improved hitting.

Also, Adley will be up for a full season, so add another 1 WAR assuming similar production. Therefore, projecting full seasons from Adley and Gunnar, the O’s will need about 2 WAR from Odor’s replacement.  Seems like that can come from Urias or out of the system (e.g. Ortiz or Westburg).  

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

What do you think the odds of them gaining 50 more runs scored in-house?  

What about allowing 50 less runs with in-house improvement?

Not sure I can sit the line but know my line for runs scored would be much higher.  Likely 2-3 times larger.

Some of that run differential gap will drop when we sign Verlander and Judge!   

Well, post-Adley the O’s are averaging 4.47 runs per game, which over the 159 games played so far would be +43 compared to last year.   Factor in Gunnar for a full season, addition by subtraction on Odor and Chirinos, I’d say the odds of +50 runs are pretty good, though they should still look for external improvement as well.

On run prevention, the post-Adley O’s are almost exactly the same as the pre-Adley O’s.   So, no presumed improvement there.   That surprised me a bit, but the Sept./Oct. ERA is pretty high (4.60).  Grayson could be an upgrade, having Kremer all year should help, and Bradish turned a corner after returning from the IL.  Bottom line, I agree with you that an internal 50 run improvement is unlikely.  They will need to add pitching to do it IMO.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

What do you think the odds of them gaining 50 more runs scored in-house?  

What about allowing 50 less runs with in-house improvement?

Not sure I can sit the line but know my line for runs scored would be much higher.  Likely 2-3 times larger.

Some of that run differential gap will drop when we sign Verlander and Judge!   

I think a major part of the 50 runs scored will be from not playing Odor almost every day, a full season of Adley (and no Chirinos/Biemboom), and a full season of Gunnar.  I'm not an expert of how many runs that would increase the O's offense, but I would guess that could provide the majority of 50 run improvement needed/targetted.

[jdwilde1]

On the pitching side there are more candidates at risk of regression considering the likelihood of injury and the contributions from guys like Voth (1.1) and Perez (2.9), but also there is a lot of potential to add significant pitching WAR just off of the in-house guys (e.g. Bradish, Means, Grayson). Also, the 2022 O’s had a combined negative 2.5 WAR from the following : Paul Fry, Bruce Zimmerman, Travis Lakins, Jake Reed, Zac Lowther, Chris Ellis, Cody Sedlock, Logan Allen, and Yennier Canno (who posted a -.2 WAR in just one inning). So, replacing that cast of characters’ worklod with just replacement level production gets you 25 of the 50 runs they are looking to improve.  
 

This is why a TOR starter is so important. Adding somebody like Rodon moves everybody else back in the rotation and allows somebody like Voth to take over a multiple inning role in the bullpen. Then, the O’s have enough depth to where they aren’t running out Zimmerman for 13 starts or having the Beau Sulsers of the world to try and help eek out 1400+ innings without killing the bullpen.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The way I see it, wins are a function of outscoring the other team and it doesn’t matter much how you do it.  Looking at runs scored vs. allowed for the six AL playoff teams:

Houston 724 - 513 = 211

New York 791 - 555 = 236

Cleveland 682 - 624 = 58

Toronto 761 - 672 = 89

Seattle 666 - 603 = 63

Tampa 660 - 598 = 62

The O’s are at 667 - 674 = -7.   At a minimum, the team’s run differential is 65 runs below a true playoff contender, more like 200 runs less than a really top team.   

Notably, the O’s have outscored Seattle and Tampa by a minimal amount, but have allowed more runs than all the playoff teams.  

I’m pretty indifferent as to whether the team improves by increasing its runs scored, decreasing its runs allowed, or a combination of both.   But I’ll say this: to be a truly top-level team, as opposed to a mere playoff contender, they need to do both.  To me, they probably need to improve by 50+ runs in both respects.  I think on both sides some of that could come from internal improvement, but we will need to acquire outside talent to achieve either goal as well.

 

 

Its just foolish to ignore the offense and assume prospects are going to come up and perform immediately.  They need to add to the offense, more than just bringing guys up.

[Hallas]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Its just foolish to ignore the offense and assume prospects are going to come up and perform immediately.  They need to add to the offense, more than just bringing guys up.

I think there should be an exception to this if you're a top-3 in all of baseball prospect, which Adley and Gunnar are.  I'm fine relying on them to give us a boost.  Everyone else?  Yeah I 100% agree.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I think there should be an exception to this if you're a top-3 in all of baseball prospect, which Adley and Gunnar are.  I'm fine relying on them to give us a boost.  Everyone else?  Yeah I 100% agree.

Yea I agree with that.  That’s obviously a help. But some things won’t work out, others will.

Heres the thing..you need a good offense.  Look at the teams in our division and a team like Houston. 
 

I don’t want them to go nuts with position players but I do feel 1-2 bats need to be added.  I believe it was Just Regular who suggested Brantley. He’s an injury prone guy but an excellent guy to look at.

Need some real hitters.  Too many guys who don’t walk, swing from their heels, etc…need a little less of that and a little more overall hitting talent.