MLB draft #1 pick odds

[Sports Guy]

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Just Regular]

The Philadelphia-Milwaukee loser will probably have lower Odds than us.

Our position relative to the Giants, White Sox and Twins could shift before the end.

[Jammer7]

I’m not a fan of the lottery system they adopted, but so be it. It will be interesting how it shakes out. If we end up in the middle picks, we can see what the “scouting apparatus” does with that pick. See how their philosophy changes, if at all. If Elias gets a top 6 pick, Buster Olney will lose his mind. lol

[SpOkane]

Tankathon | 2023 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

Anyone try the Tankathon simulator?

I just tried it about 20 times and Miami was #1 3xs. Boston was #1 once. The Nats were frequently out of the top 6. Baltimore moved out of the #17 spot just once and that was to #18 when Milwaukee was #5.

[Just Regular]

It was just a Google away, but new to me the big day expected during the Winter Meetings in early December.

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/9/5/mlb-draft-lottery-expected-to-take-place-december-6-during-winter-meetings

Assuming we stay behind SD/PHI/MIL and ahead of SFG/CHW/MIN to end at the 17th worst record, and they count it down NBA style, confirmation we pick ~1-17 will come almost right off the bat.

With of course the long shot, Envelope 17 (or however they do it digitally if they are saving paper) is not us, and then the event hosts start gushing, "The Orioles are in the lottery, the Orioles are in the lottery".   

And for the next 30-60 minutes, we stress test the OH servers.

iS tHiS rIgHt MoOsE mIlLiGaN?!?!

Edited October 1, 2022 by Just Regular

[Sports Guy]

It would just be great if we moved into the top 12.

[SpOkane]

The draft lottery is only for the first six picks. O's can only be 1-6 or 17 or 18 if the standings remain unchanged.

At 17, the O's have a better chance of being selected in the top 6 (3.4%) than dropping to 18th (2.1%).

Edited October 1, 2022 by SpOkane

[OriolesMagic83]

If the O's finished with a bottom 6 record this year, is the earliest they could pick be #7?  Trying to understand the tanking penalties.

[Just Regular]

20 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the O's finished with a bottom 6 record this year, is the earliest they could pick be #7?  Trying to understand the tanking penalties.

All 18 non-playoff teams get a chance at the first six picks.

The team that finishes with the worst record, the latest they could pick is #7, in the bad luck scenario where their "most lottery combinations" are not the winners pulled for any of the first six picks.

[Frobby]

It shouldn’t affect us for now, but I hope these anti-tanking rules don’t lead to more teams being stuck in 70-win purgatory for decades at a time.   I understand the problem they’re trying to solve, but they may just create a different problem.  As an Orioles fan, I far preferred the “four years of extreme pain” approach to the “fourteen years of death by a thousand cuts” approach.   

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It shouldn’t affect us for now, but I hope these anti-tanking rules don’t lead to more teams being stuck in 70-win purgatory for decades at a time.   I understand the problem they’re trying to solve, but they may just create a different problem.  As an Orioles fan, I far preferred the “four years of extreme pain” approach to the “fourteen years of death by a thousand cuts” approach.   

Well you don’t need high picks to be good, so this shouldn’t be an issue.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well you don’t need high picks to be good, so this shouldn’t be an issue.

You don’t “need” them, but they’re extremely helpful.   It’s a lot easier to identify a stud at 1-1 than it is at 1-7.   And every team needs a few studs to build around.  

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You don’t “need” them, but they’re extremely helpful.   It’s a lot easier to identify a stud at 1-1 than it is at 1-7.   And every team needs a few studs to build around.  

And as demonstrated all the time, studs don’t have to come from high picks.

If you know how to scout, draft and develop, you are fine no matter where you pick.

Sure it can be easier at times (although that depends on a lot of factors) but if you are stuck in 70ish win purgatory, it’s because you suck at team building, not because of a lack of high picks.

[LookinUp]

I definitely think they over did this lottery. 3-5 spots up for grabs, max, IMO.

[PHRESH]

It would be hilarious if they won the lottery. 

Edit: I'd love to see ME's face the moment he realized they'd won. 

Edited October 6, 2022 by PHRESH