2022's Shortstops

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

JJ Hardy age 27 season in Milwaukee (2010): 101 games, .268/.320/.394 with 6 HRs and 44 RBI

Age 28 season after trade to Baltimore, (2011): .269/.310/.491 with 30 HRs and 76 RBI. 

It's been done before... 

Fine.  But that's not an honest comparison for multiple reasons.  JJ Hardy had already tapped into what could be at the ML level before.  Neither are OBP heavyweights, but Mateo striking out 12+% more for a career norm matters.  

Can we agree that 2010 version of JJ Hardy was a career outlier from 2005-2013 in a negative way?  Can we agree that 2011 was an outlier (especially on the power front - .222 ISO) in a positive way for the same timeframe?  Can we also agree that JJ Hardy had 2 really good seasons prior to age 27?  And can we agree that the 2011 home field/LF advantage was much better for Hardy than the 2022 Walltimore Mateo hits in?  

We can almost throw out any stats for Hardy from 2014 (age 32-34) and later because of his back.  But even with a bad back, his average EV was 89.0.  And his HH% was 39.6%.  Compared to Mateo's (age 25-27) 85.6 average EV and 32.9% career HH%.  Old man Hardy probably still swings his cane with more stank while yelling at Mateo to "Get off my lawn!"

[WI O’s Fan]

Per Elias, “some players with great hand eye fielding coordination take a little longer with the bat like Jose Iglsias”.  That sounds like he will keep him there a least another half year.  Put Henderson at 3B and Westburg at 2B.   Maybe get a bat like Josh Bell?  It would great to have  Turner or Correa in the 2 hole and push everyone down a slot. 

Mullins - cf

Rutschman- c

Henderson - 3B

Bell - dh

Santander- rf

Mountcastle-  1b

Stowers - lf

Westburg- 2b

Mateo - ss

[Jim'sKid26]

29 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Fine.  But that's not an honest comparison for multiple reasons.  JJ Hardy had already tapped into what could be at the ML level before.  Neither are OBP heavyweights, but Mateo striking out 12+% more for a career norm matters.  

Can we agree that 2010 version of JJ Hardy was a career outlier from 2005-2013 in a negative way?  Can we agree that 2011 was an outlier (especially on the power front - .222 ISO) in a positive way for the same timeframe?  Can we also agree that JJ Hardy had 2 really good seasons prior to age 27?  And can we agree that the 2011 home field/LF advantage was much better for Hardy than the 2022 Walltimore Mateo hits in?  

We can almost throw out any stats for Hardy from 2014 (age 32-34) and later because of his back.  But even with a bad back, his average EV was 89.0.  And his HH% was 39.6%.  Compared to Mateo's (age 25-27) 85.6 average EV and 32.9% career HH%.  Old man Hardy probably still swings his cane with more stank while yelling at Mateo to "Get off my lawn!"

Your criticism of the comparison is fair. I was looking for an elite defender whose age 27 season was followed by a significantly improved age 28 season. I agree the players are very different and I don't think Mateo will ever have the power that Hardy had. But then Hardy doesn't have the speed Mateo has. My point is 28 is typically when players begin to peak. Milwaukee made a mistake trading Hardy prior to his age 28 season. I'm not certain that we have seen the best of Jorge Mateo. But you can also make the case that his trade value may never again be this high. 

[Just Regular]

Here is a mashup of how 13 Clubs and Players would align if the best 2022 teams got the best 2022 shortstops.   This is just a 1-13 list of Clubs by Wins, and Players by 2022 WAR, presuming currently good Clubs would be more motivated to get guys playing well.    The 13 Clubs are teams either with FA shortstops, or Clubs that probably wouldn't want to play 2022's incumbent again.

111 LAD - Xander Bogaerts, 5.7

101 ATL - Dansby Swanson, 5.7

99 NYY - Carlos Correa, 5.4

87 PHI - Trea Turner, 4.9

83 BAL - Jorge Mateo, 3.3

78 MIN - Elvis Andrus, 3.0

78 BOS - Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 2.9

74 ARZ - Miguel Rojas, 2.5

73 LAA - Andrew Velazquez, 1.5

69 MIA - Bryson Stott, 1.3

68 COL - Jose Iglesias, 1.2

65 KCR - Geraldo Perdomo, 0.6

60 OAK - Nicky Lopez, -0.2

Among 2023 teams who should care about being respectable, the list of Clubs where '23 Mateo might be better than what they have now looks like PHI-MIN-BOS-ARZ-LAA-MIA.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Just Regular

[btdart20]

33 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Here is a mashup of how 13 Clubs and Players would align if the best 2022 teams got the best 2022 shortstops.   This is just a 1-13 list of Clubs by Wins, and Players by 2022 WAR, presuming currently good Clubs would be more motivated to get guys playing well.    The 13 Clubs are teams either with FA shortstops, or Clubs that probably wouldn't want to play 2022's incumbent again.

111 LAD - Xander Bogaerts, 5.7

101 ATL - Dansby Swanson, 5.7

99 NYY - Carlos Correa, 5.4

87 PHI - Trea Turner, 4.9

83 BAL - Jorge Mateo, 3.3

78 MIN - Elvis Andrus, 3.0

78 BOS - Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 2.9

74 ARZ - Miguel Rojas, 2.5

73 LAA - Andrew Velazquez, 1.5

69 MIA - Bryson Stott, 1.3

68 COL - Jose Iglesias, 1.2

65 KCR - Geraldo Perdomo, 0.6

60 OAK - Nicky Lopez, -0.2

Among 2023 teams who should care about being respectable, the list of Clubs where '23 Mateo might be better than what they have now looks like PHI-MIN-BOS-ARZ-LAA-MIA.

Fun approach!  I doubt MN is really in the market with Royce Lewis looking legit when healthy.  But some playing time on those other squads below Baltimore.