Key metric - How to improve team OBP?

[btdart20]

At a high level, I think OBP is a key metric that needs to improve heading into 2023 and beyond.  Guys like Mateo and Mountcastle don't help with that number.  We have in-house options for SS if that's a position we're looking to get a better OBP out of.  But we don't with 1B.  I do think Mountcastle is ripe for a bounce back.  But I doubt he'll really take steps forward with OBP.  Mountcastle doesn't have dramatic splits, but if we're looking for cost-effective ways to squeeze a few runs, then playing the Righty/Lefty splits could be a path forward.

To look at it another way, Baltimore ranked 24th in OPS and 25th in OBP vs. LHP in 2022.  That's about 1700 PA out of 6000 PAs.

 

What about switch-hitting Carlos Santana on the weak side of a 1B platoon and late inning PH vs. LHP?  

 

Mountcastle slashed .239/.299/.394 in 2022 with a career .256/.310/.458 vs. LHP.  

Santana slashed .265/.387/.402 in 2022 with a career mark of .276/.377/.443 vs. LHP.

The biggest difference being the OBP.  His last contract was a 2 yr/$17.5m deal.  I think he would be available for less heading into 2023 but even if it was that same type of deal (or even a 2nd year club option) could get it done.  He'll be 37 next April.  This would allow the bulk of our FA/budget spending/trade assets to go toward other priorities.

[Frobby]

Here’s our OBP at various positions, vs. league average: 

SS: .267/.307

2B: .282/.307

RF: .296/.310

3B: .302/.316

CA: .311/.292

1B: .317/.320

CF: .319/.306

DH: .322/.311

LF: .323/.314

To state the obvious, SS and 2B are the glaring problem. 2B is a relatively easy fix, since Odor (.277) is gone and pretty much anyone will be better.  The tough question is SS.   Do you keep Mateo and (1) hope his OBP can improve, and (2) if not, eat it because of Mateo’s defense?   Or do you put someone with a higher OBP there and take a huge chunk out of that problem?

LF/RF is just a fluky phenomenon.  Hays’ OBP was 47 points better when he played LF than RF; Santander’s was 33 points better.  No real reason for that.   We’re 14 points worse than average in RF, 9 point better than average in LF.   That leaves us about 2.5 points below average at those positions combined.  Not enough to worry about.

At C (where we already are +14), we will improve just by Adley being on the team all year.  Hopefully we can find a backup who can do better than Chirinos’ .262.   

Bottom line, I think we are bound to improve our OBP next year.  FWIW, the team OBP was .299 pre-Adley, .307 post-Adley.   I think we should be able to get it over .310 pretty easily.   How much, may depend on how we handle Mateo.

 

[LA2]

We lost some OBP when Trey left, but seeing his SSS performance for the Astros, one wonders. There was a noticeable uptick in Mountcastle's walks last two months of this season--one can't assume that will continue, but maybe....

Edited October 12, 2022 by LA2

[Jagwar]

17 minutes ago, LA2 said:

We lost some OBP when Trey left, but seeing his SSS performance for the Astros, one wonders. There was a noticeable uptick in Mountcastle's walks last two months of 2022--it's silly to assume that will continue, but maybe, just maybe....

I'll believe it when he stops swinging at the low and away slider out of the zone. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

One way to improve the team's OBP in 2023 is for Hays and Mountcastle to not  get a combined 1,191 plate appearances again. Obviously it would mean trading one of them or possibly a reduction in playing time due to better hitters getting at bats. 

Assuming both are on the team hopefully they can make some incremental Improvements with their swing selection. 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

The OBP of whatever position the Gunnar plays will probably go up.  His minor league career shows promise he will be a high OBP guy.  Improvements should occur at 2B, C, 3B (Gunnar), and hopefully one of LF, RF or 1B (free agency/Cowser).  I think .315 OBP which would be good for 14th in 2022, is a possibility. 

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The OBP of whatever position the Gunnar plays will probably go up.  His minor league career shows promise he will be a high OBP guy.  Improvements should occur at 2B, C, 3B (Gunnar), and hopefully one of LF, RF or 1B (free agency/Cowser).  I think .315 OBP which would be good for 14th in 2022, is a possibility. 

If he would essentially replace Odor, yeah, that's a pretty big upgrade. But you shouldn't double count him since Urias would slide over at least until Westburg is promoted. The big upgrade would be from getting rid of Odor.

[sportsfan8703]

I think Westburg at 2B and then eventually Cowser in the OF mix improve our OBP. I like JD Martinez as our “Carlos Beltran” type signing like the Astros did when they first went for the WS. 

[MarCakes21]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The OBP of whatever position the Gunnar plays will probably go up.  His minor league career shows promise he will be a high OBP guy.  Improvements should occur at 2B, C, 3B (Gunnar), and hopefully one of LF, RF or 1B (free agency/Cowser).  I think .315 OBP which would be good for 14th in 2022, is a possibility. 

I don't understand on why we don't focus on moving Mateo.  Sell high, move Gunnar to SS, keep a high WAR GG 3B in Urias.

[btdart20]

I think we have some type of answer for 2B, SS, and 3B.  Maybe not all OBP focused, like Mateo's speed/defense is a plus and we can build with the OBP weakness in mind.

1B - I mentioned a potential option above.  There are likely others like Josh Bell or Abreu.  

C - Adley's biggest weakness seems to be against LHP.  Do any FA C's have strong defense and strong splits vs. LHP?  Long-term, Adley should still get ABs vs. LHP so he can grow as a hitter.  Short-term/2022, sitting him vs. LHP SPs could be one approach to maximize team OBP.

 

COF - Cowser and Stowers could make for a beastly platoon!

Cowser's 2022 splits are pretty dramatic.

vs RHP - .307/.432/.532

vs LHP - .194/.329/.287

Stowers could be the guy (and Elias was snowballing the league by not playing him vs. LHP this year in the MLB).  2022 MiLB splits are strong (as Tony's mentioned).

vs RHP - .242/.319/.484

vs LHP - .330/.441/.577

Hays' splits are pretty neutral. 

Santander has a strong OBP vs. LHP (.293/.365/.548 in 2022) and weak vs. RHP (.221/.301/.420).  Seems like an opportunity to stop switch-hitting to me but could be another "pick your spot" type hitter to improve 469 PA's.  That said, both sides improved over career stats.

 

[Sports Guy]

Brantley, Abreu, Westburg, Cowser and full seasons for Stowers, Gunnar and Adley…eventually Ortiz or Norby. That should do the trick.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

If he would essentially replace Odor, yeah, that's a pretty big upgrade. But you shouldn't double count him since Urias would slide over at least until Westburg is promoted. The big upgrade would be from getting rid of Odor.

Yeah, I wasn't thinking Gunnar will play 2nd.  I was saying Gunnar will probably play 3rd and whoever plays 2B will be a big upgrade over Odor even if they are mediocre. 

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 

C - Adley's biggest weakness seems to be against LHP.  Do any FA C's have strong defense and strong splits vs. LHP?  Long-term, Adley should still get ABs vs. LHP so he can grow as a hitter.  Short-term/2022, sitting him vs. LHP SPs could be one approach to maximize team OBP.

I’m not ready to buy into the idea that Adley is weaker against LHP.   Here are his 2021 splits in the minors:

vs. RHP: .256/.377/.449

vs. LHP: .350/.439/.621

Sample sizes against LHP are much smaller than vs. RHP, and are subject to greater volatility.   Obviously, hitting in AA/AAA is not the same as hitting in the majors, but Rutschman’s 2021 splits coupled with his reputation when he was drafted make me believe his poor splits against LHP in 2022 were an anomaly and that we should not be worrying about this for 2023.   

[btdart20]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not ready to buy into the idea that Adley is weaker against LHP.   Here are his 2021 splits in the minors:

vs. RHP: .256/.377/.449

vs. LHP: .350/.439/.621

Sample sizes against LHP are much smaller than vs. RHP, and are subject to greater volatility.   Obviously, hitting in AA/AAA is not the same as hitting in the majors, but Rutschman’s 2021 splits coupled with his reputation when he was drafted make me believe his poor splits against LHP in 2022 were an anomaly and that we should not be worrying about this for 2023.   

Yeah, that's fair.  I jumped the gun and didn't dig down to MiLB stats as I should have.  I even said the long-term view is what we should do, yet I didn't take the long-term view when researching!  No need to play the splits game with C.  Just get the best defensive catcher with some OBP upside off the scrap heap.

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Brantley

He would an interesting DH.  What level of trust there for labrum recovery for hitters?  Better for hitters for sure.  His OBP would be great and could even push 20 HR with a full season of ABs playing half his games in OPACY.

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

He would an interesting DH.  What level of trust there for labrum recovery for hitters?  Better for hitters for sure.  His OBP would be great and could even push 20 HR with a full season of ABs playing half his games in OPACY.

I think the record is pretty good.  Joey Ortiz had labrum surgery in 2021 and got off to a slow start this year but was amazing in the second half.   Jordan Lawlar also had labrum surgery last July/August and it didn’t slow him at all in 2022.   In both cases, the injury was to their non-throwing (left) side.   Brantley’s injury also was on his non-throwing (right) side.  So hopefully that augurs well for a full recovery.