If he's non-tendered, do the O's take a flyer on Cody Bellinger?

[Jim'sKid26]

MLB rumors has his likely ARB3 number at $18.1M for 2023. It is widely rumored that the Dodgers won't tender him a contract and he will be a free agent. 

His 2022 numbers are not encouraging. However, he is coming into his age 28 and he is a former RoY and NL MVP. 

Would he benefit from a change of scenery? Can the O's analytics shop figure out what might work for him moving forward at the plate? Would he be a valuable 1B/DH/OF for the O's at a reasonable price point?

Thoughts?

Cubs should keep close eye on non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger (cubbiescrib.com)

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I'd rather not waste ABs that Stowers, Vavra, and eventually Cowser should receive on what's left of Cody Bellinger.

[Jim'sKid26]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'd rather not waste ABs that Stowers, Vavra, and eventually Cowser should receive on what's left of Cody Bellinger.

I appreciate that position and agree that our young OF should not be blocked. 

I'm thinking about his bat as part of a platoon with Mountcastle at 1B primarily. Also as a late innings defensive replacement in the OF. 

[Sports Guy]

Well, he’s excellent defensively.

His exit velo is slightly above average but the rest of his stat cast numbers are ugly.

His walk rate has been declining and the K rate has been rising.  That’s never a good sign.

I would take the chance under 2 circumstances:

1) You have dealt Mullins

2) it takes a small deal to sign him and you get a team friendly option attached.

My intention would be for him to be part of a platoon with McKenna and just see if he can take off.

[Frobby]

What the heck happened to this guy?  Stud at 23, washed up at 26?  Holy Rougned Odor!

I could see taking a shot at him if the O’s think they know what’s wrong with him and think they can fix it.   I wouldn’t just want them to take a random shot if they have no idea what the problem is.   

[Chelsea_Phil]

I am writing this solely on my memory, but doesn’t he have a very very long loopy swing, kind of like someone we know who goes by initials CD?  Those kind of swings always worry me.

[Aristotelian]

It's been three years of struggle after his Brady Anderson year. There may have been a time when we could give a guy an extended chance to fix himself but I'd like to see us get more of a known quantity or just roll with internal options. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

12 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

I appreciate that position and agree that our young OF should not be blocked. 

I'm thinking about his bat as part of a platoon with Mountcastle at 1B primarily. Also as a late innings defensive replacement in the OF. 

I think that would be a waste of Mountcastle, honestly. I'd rather just let him play everyday and try to figure out if he is our everyday 1B going forward.

Maybe Bellinger makes some sense for us as part of a CF platoon with McKenna if Mullins is dealt for a SP like Sports Guy said. Other than that though, I don't see much reason for the Orioles to sign him.

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What the heck happened to this guy?  Stud at 23, washed up at 26?  Holy Rougned Odor!

Shoulder surgery IIRC.

[Sports Guy]

Its amazing that the Dodgers can lose an MVP for nothing (essentially what happened) and still be as great as they have been.

I don't care how much money you are spending, thats incredible stuff there.  Hell of an organization.

[CharmCityHokie]

50 minutes ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

I am writing this solely on my memory, but doesn’t he have a very very long loopy swing, kind of like someone we know who goes by initials CD?  Those kind of swings always worry me.

FanGraphs once compared Stowers' swing to Bellinger's:

"Stowers swings so hard that he looks like he’s going to corkscrew himself into the ground. The Bellingerian cut makes Stowers’ whiffs seem worse than they are, and also make his dingers aesthetically pleasing."

[jamalshw]

His defensive ability and flexibility would be helpful. Having the ability to play OF and also serve as a backup option at 1B is nice. 

That said, the offense is gone. I wouldn't mind taking a low cost flier on him IF Sig/Elias think he can be "fixed"

[CharmCityHokie]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What the heck happened to this guy?  Stud at 23, washed up at 26?  Holy Rougned Odor!

I could see taking a shot at him if the O’s think they know what’s wrong with him and think they can fix it.   I wouldn’t just want them to take a random shot if they have no idea what the problem is.   

I think his injuries and surgery really took their toll on him, he's never been the same since he screwed up his shoulder in his home run celebration. I can't imagine as smart as the Dodgers are that the Orioles have some secret sauce they can use to fix him that the LAD's don't already know about. They are the ones that turned Evan Phillips into a shutdown backend reliever.

[wildcard]

According to Wiki he has separated his shoulder and broken bones with several times running into other players.   The decline seem to be from injuries.  No amount of coaching is going to help if he has a physical problem.  

I don't know that he is an excellent defender any more.   Sound like he is closer to average in the outfield now.   And does not have the bat to be a  regular 1B.

As far as  I know the O's are not great at fixing position players.   They do that with pitchers.   They did help Mateo improve his SS defense but its not one of the O's strengths overall as far as I know. 

Edited October 14, 2022 by wildcard

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I think his injuries and surgery really took their toll on him, he's never been the same since he screwed up his shoulder in his home run celebration. I can't imagine as smart as the Dodgers are that the Orioles have some secret sauce they can use to fix him that the LAD's don't already know about. They are the ones that turned Evan Phillips into a shutdown backend reliever.

Thanks.  I didn’t know about his injuries.  I’d pass.  

[Moose Milligan]

Probably not. 
 

It’s a shame his career has gone the way it had he was great.