If you could get Jacob deGrom for 2/$90M; would you do it?

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Whether or not a team goes to the World Series is not random. The Orioles did not have a  6.67% chance of going to the World Series at the start of last  season. Just like the Astros probability of going to the World Series was not 6.67%. Calculating the probability is not easy. Given the past performance of the players on the roster (estimates of the means and variances), I think you could calculate the probability but it would be tough and there would be a big standard error around the estimate. I bet the Sigs of the baseball world have modeled this and have a data-based probability distribution. But it’s definitely not a random distribution. I don’t think you really believe or think that it is a random distribution. 

Did you actually read what I wrote?  “Obviously, some teams are higher and some are lower, but that’s the average chance.”   So of course I don’t think it’s random.  And of course I didn’t think the O’s had a 6.67% chance last year.   Next year’s a different situation.   I wish I could find what Fangraphs or BP or someone said the odds were at the beginning of the season last year.  That would show what they thought the odds were for various tesms whose situations going into 2022 might have been comparable to what the O’s will be in 2023.

Without knowing what moves we will make this winter, right now I’d say we’ll have a 33% chance to make the playoffs.   Once there, the odds to make the WS for a WC team are probably something like 8%.   So, I’d say our odds of making the WS next year are 2.5 - 3.0%.  For two years, maybe be 5-6%.   My opinion could change as we see how the offseason goes.   

Are those odds “incredibly low?”   
 

[Frobby]

PS - Vegas has us +5000 to win the WS next year, which as I understand it translates to a 1.96% chance.  That’s to win it.  I assume that means roughly 3.92% chance to get to the WS.  So, that’s a little better than my back of the envelope guess.  But of course, they always have the odds a little higher than they actually are for every team, to give the house their spread.   

Edited November 7, 2022 by Frobby

[Ohfan67]

Just now, Frobby said:

Did you actually read what I wrote?  “Obviously, some teams are higher and some are lower, but that’s the average chance.”   So of course I don’t think it’s random.  And of course I didn’t think the O’s had a 6.67% chance last year.   Next year’s a different situation.   I wish I could find what Fangraphs or BP or someone said the odds were at the beginning of the season last year.  That would show what they thought the odds were for various tesms whose situations going into 2022 might have been comparable to what the O’s will be in 2023.

Without knowing what moves we will make this winter, right now I’d say we’ll have a 33% chance to make the playoffs.   Once there, the odds to make the WS for a WC team are probably something like 8%.   So, I’d say our odds of making the WS next year are 2.5 - 3.0%.  For two years, maybe be 5-6%.   My opinion could change as we see how the offseason goes.   

Are those odds “incredibly low?”   
 

I read what you wrote, it just didn’t make any sense. Why on Earth would you even bring the random distribution odds into the discussion if you thought they were meaningless? Especially when you were addressing my comments where I explicitly linked the decision to take a big financial risk, the probability of making the World Series, and the near term quality of the Orioles team? Ignoring talent is ridiculous. I thought maybe you were having a stroke or were really drunk.

I think 2.5% is a good ballpark estimate for next year. I too hope and expect it would be higher the following year. That’s a low probability when we are discussing the merits of investing 45 million into a starting pitcher for next years team. Which was the whole point of my posts. The Orioles need to be more competitive before it’s sound to take a big financial risk. And yes, I consider 2.5% incredibly low in the context of the discussion about the soundness of taking a big financial risk. 
 

We don’t know the additions that Elias will make, but I think the odds that the Orioles make the playoffs next year is less than 33%. I don’t have an exact probability in mind, but as you know baseball is a funny game. I don’t expect a continuous, positive, linear increase in wins. I think next year is the most likely year for a relatively small increase in the number of wins. The Orioles had an historical increase in wins this year. Some let down amidst our joyous optimism seems likely. 

[seak05]

10 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I read what you wrote, it just didn’t make any sense. Why on Earth would you even bring the random distribution odds into the discussion if you thought they were meaningless? Especially when you were addressing my comments where I explicitly linked the decision to take a big financial risk, the probability of making the World Series, and the near term quality of the Orioles team? Ignoring talent is ridiculous. I thought maybe you were having a stroke or were really drunk.

I think 2.5% is a good ballpark estimate for next year. I too hope and expect it would be higher the following year. That’s a low probability when we are discussing the merits of investing 45 million into a starting pitcher for next years team. Which was the whole point of my posts. The Orioles need to be more competitive before it’s sound to take a big financial risk. And yes, I consider 2.5% incredibly low in the context of the discussion about the soundness of taking a big financial risk. 
 

We don’t know the additions that Elias will make, but I think the odds that the Orioles make the playoffs next year is less than 33%. I don’t have an exact probability in mind, but as you know baseball is a funny game. I don’t expect a continuous, positive, linear increase in wins. I think next year is the most likely year for a relatively small increase in the number of wins. The Orioles had an historical increase in wins this year. Some let down amidst our joyous optimism seems likely. 

I think once you get into the playoffs it's mostly a crapshoot anyways, and for a variety of factors any teams odds of winning the WS are going to be very low. As it's over the course of 162 a teams odds and ability to make the postseason are much more controllable, and are the odds I would focus on . I think the Orioles have a good shot at the playoffs in the next two years, especially if they add in free agency 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 11/5/2022 at 1:41 PM, waroriole said:

I agree that it’s better to spread the risk around among multiple players; however, if it’s only 2 years the risk may actually be less than Rodon at 5/140. 

Especially when you know it's really a 1/45 deal. Well, unless he throws like 25 innings in year one...

[MarCakes21]

22 hours ago, wildcard said:

Astros are a big market team.  The O's are not.

The Astros are a big market team because they've got a fanbase.  Were they a big market when they stunk too?

[SpOkane]

3 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

The Astros are a big market team because they've got a fanbase.  Were they a big market when they stunk too?

Houston is the 4th largest city in the US behind NYC, LA, & CHI.  Those cities have had a few teams that were less than good in recent memory.

[sevastras]

30 minutes ago, SpOkane said:

Houston is the 4th largest city in the US behind NYC, LA, & CHI.  Those cities have had a few teams that were less than good in recent memory.

The Baltimore-Washington metro area is the third largest behind New York and LA. There is a real possibility for the Os to become a large market team if they were perennial winners. I’m sure there would be plenty of Nats “fans” that would flip back over to the Os or kids in Virginia and lower PA who cheer for the Os because they are the winners when they became baseball watching age.  If Gunnar or Rutschman were to become MVP caliber players, that garners attention nationally as well. Then if you have someone who was a big name in Japan, you start to get international following. 
The Os would have to go on a Houston type run, but that completely changes the revenue the team brings in and thus opens more doors for spending long term. 
TB is different in Florida isn’t really a baseball state and they have a very large transplant population who remain loyal to their original team. 
That was a very @Just Regular style of post. 

[Just Regular]

Whether you put $40-$45mm on deGrom or spread it around to a few guys for the '23 Orioles depends somewhat on what you believe about the Voth and Hall (more role than talent there) pair, and how Elias will play Grayson.    Bradish and Kremer are okay, Watkins isn't.

Fangraphs crowdsource results were in their Top 50 Free Agents big piece today...they are guessing AAV's

40 - deGrom

27 - Verlander        (surprised to see JV closer to Rodon than deGrom)

25 - Rodon, Kershaw

16 - Bassitt, Syndergaard

15 - Senga

14 - Eovaldi

12 - Taillon

11 - Taijuan, Quintana, Stripling

10 - Ty. Anderson, M. Perez, Manaea, Kluber, Heaney

9 - Eflin

8 - Cueto, Wacha, Clevinger

 

[Pickles]

Apparently deGrom has expressed an interest in pitching for the Rangers.

https://www.nj.com/sports/2022/11/mets-jacob-degrom-expresses-interest-in-rangers-report-says.html

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Apparently deGrom has expressed an interest in pitching for the Rangers.

https://www.nj.com/sports/2022/11/mets-jacob-degrom-expresses-interest-in-rangers-report-says.html

He and his agent have to leverage the Mets.

[NCRaven]

New York, Chicago and Los Angelos have huge advantages over the Baltimore-DC metro beyond population.  They are also three of the largest corporate HQ cities in the country meaning more money for corporate suites and the ability to charge higher ticket prices.  They are also huge media markets generating greater advertising revenues for their broadcast networks.  If New York and Baltimore have the same attendance on a particular date, New York will make twice (admitted Wild Assed Guess meant only as a general comment) as much money.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

New York, Chicago and Los Angelos have huge advantages over the Baltimore-DC metro beyond population.  They are also three of the largest corporate HQ cities in the country meaning more money for corporate suites and the ability to charge higher ticket prices.  They are also huge media markets generating greater advertising revenues for their broadcast networks.  If New York and Baltimore have the same attendance on a particular date, New York will make twice (admitted Wild Assed Guess meant only as a general comment) as much money.

And teams such as the Rangers can offer superior tax environments.

[Pickles]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

He and his agent have to leverage the Mets.

Yeah, maybe.