Elias sounds like he is shooting high

[Can_of_corn]

On an irrelevant note, how is "Shooting High" not a euphemism for using one drug or another?

 

[elextrano8]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

On an irrelevant note, how is "Shooting High" not a euphemism for using one drug or another?

 

It sounds too much like something a narc would say, trying to fit in with the kids

[Moose Milligan]

Why hasn’t Elias signed anyone yet 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Why hasn’t Elias signed anyone yet 

Anthony Bemboom says hello.

[AnythingO's]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

The Arb raises are a little lower than you’re guessing.  MLBTR is estimating our players will get $21.5 mm in arbitration, but to figure out “raises” you have to subtract what those players made this year, which is about $6.8 mm. So, that’s maybe $15 mm in Arb raises, not $20-25 mm.  In that case, I guess you would think our FA budget is in the $35-45 mm range?

No, I would lower my FA estimate. I go back to his "a lot" qualifier. I think the FA pool could be plus $10-15 M over the inhouse increases. Now total payroll may increase through trades in addition to arb and FA so there is some more wiggle room.

[Roll Tide]

12 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

You are assuming that other GMs value the player based on most recent year instead of their body of work. Most trades happen not because of differing valuations but because teams have different needs. I would trade Hays or Santander more because we have cheaper viable replacements than as a bet on their value. Of course I would seek to maximize their value and hope to find an overpay.

It’s hard to do with players in their mid 20. Baseball players peak in that area, probably around 26 but certainly some do later. Anthony might have peaked this season. He’s still only 28 so it’s fair to assume his 2023 could be similar or slighty under. I don’t think there is any reason to expect a drop off.

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Anthony Bemboom says hello.

I think we should be expect a guy like Wacha and perhaps a return of Lyles. The later wouldn’t really be and addition as it’s technically preventing a subtraction. You mentioned adjusted available money for free agency based on salary adjustments in arb. The $7 or so million that they paid Lyles minus the 1 million buy out has to be included as well. Plus we will save some draft pool money as a result of picking in the middle versus at the top.
 

SI mentioned Wacha and Stripling. My concern there is you are adding 300 innings over two rotation slots and losing 30 innings in one compared to Lyles. IMO, Lyles was either pretty dam good at points but had a few of those implosion start. I tried to look up his quality starts but didn’t locate it. I don’t think the Orioles can afford to have 5 starters pitch 150 innings. That would leave 750 innings not counting extra innings or playoffs. That would be more than this year. 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Roll Tide

[IPlayGM]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think we should be expect a guy like Wacha and perhaps a return of Lyles. The later wouldn’t really be and addition as it’s technically preventing a subtraction. 

I just don’t see how adding two starting pitchers is the prudent approach. If you add a 1-3 type, then your choices for starter are:

FA signing

GRod

Bradish

Kremer

Wells

Hall

Voth

Watkins

Means (June/July)

To me, that is a nice mix of depth/quality for limited spending. Use the money to upgrade the lineup for guys that can get on base and drive in runs.

[Sports Guy]

Wacha is a JAG.

The Orioles don’t need those types of players.  High level impact players are the only guys the Orioles should be looking to add.  We don’t need to just fill out the roster.  We need to improve the top of the roster.

[wildcard]

13 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Poison pills - Bassitt, Ty. Anderson, M. Perez, Eovaldi

No poison pills - Taillon, Taijuan, Manaea

I think Anderson and Perez might take them.   To the extent TEX is a team also aspirationally near AL 6th best in 2023, I am rooting for M. Perez to take $20mm of their money.     Eovaldi feels like could be either way.

 

The compensation the O's would have to pay for signing one of these guys is a 3rd rounder.   I doubt that would keep Elias from signing a guy like Bassitt.  Especially when if they don't sign on of these guys the O's will have to trade away much more to get a starter better than Lyles.

[emmett16]

43 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

I just don’t see how adding two starting pitchers is the prudent approach. If you add a 1-3 type, then your choices for starter are:

FA signing

GRod

Bradish

Kremer

Wells

Hall

Voth

Watkins

Means (June/July)

To me, that is a nice mix of depth/quality for limited spending. Use the money to upgrade the lineup for guys that can get on base and drive in runs.

Your first 5 pitchers will cover about 1/3 - 1/2 of the years innings.  Voth and Watkins are depth guys you hope you don’t need to use. Means might come back for two months.  You need to acquire 2 pitchers to cover all the innings next year.  No way around it.  

[Can_of_corn]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wacha is a JAG.

The Orioles don’t need those types of players.  High level impact players are the only guys the Orioles should be looking to add.  We don’t need to just fill out the roster.  We need to improve the top of the roster.

I wouldn't consider Wacha a one or a two and frankly calling him a three is pushing the definition a bit.

 

[Roll Tide]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wacha is a JAG.

The Orioles don’t need those types of players.  High level impact players are the only guys the Orioles should be looking to add.  We don’t need to just fill out the roster.  We need to improve the top of the roster.

JAG ? Just above grade?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

JAG ? Just above grade?

Just another guy 

[LookinUp]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

He has given me the impression that he’s very flexible about what he may do, depending on the market.  I don’t think he has plans that are set in stone.  

I hope that isn't the case. I don't want the O's over-stressing value. I want them getting the players Elias wants. Obviously there are degrees of how far you go, but the O's should not be shifting with the winds unless it's a major hurricane wind. They should be going out and getting the best guys for our plans.