What is your grade for Elias after his 4th year?

[LookinUp]

I have been one of Elias' biggest fans. I think we should do whatever it takes to keep him here. That said, an A+ is nearly impossible if you're grading on every specific thing.

But in the grand scheme of things, I think he's been excellent. Great drafting. Great player development. Moved the fence to get better performance from average arms. Built the international program. Maintained ultimate payroll flexibility for when this team is a legit contender. Kept costs low so Angelos can sell. This is great stuff.

I do think there are two things that are very fair to question:

1. Is he doing enough with young pitching? I don't think we know this answer, but we do know he's invested a ton in bats and not much in arms. We're just left to assume his approach to arms will work.

2. Do we do enough internationally? This isn't just about getting production from those kids. I think that's starting to bear fruit. I have heard though that we still have fewer boots on the ground in the DR than teams like the Astros. That could be an ownership limitation, or it could be an efficiency thing, but it concerns me if we're not all in there.

[Tony-OH]

Drafting: A
Use of technology and Analytics: A
Development: A-
Trades: B
Waivers analysis: C+ 
International Signings: C (so far)
Minor league talent scouting and analysis: C
Major League talent acquisition: C

Using Educational standards that comes out to 2.9

So B- for me.

[oriolediehard]

I give Elias an A. He has took over a major overhaul left by the previous management.  I have complete confidence in Elias.  I am so happy the O's have turned the corner from a disastrous previous situation.

[Moose Milligan]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Right.  Again, it’s not a dig at Elias, it’s just more like he has more to do.

I’m looking at this grading in the overall scope of the job as a whole, not necessarily just on what he has done so far.

But even if I did look at it that way, I would still ding him down for how he approached the 2022 season.

I think the thing giving me pause from giving him a A- or flat out A is that he hasn't really pulled off a major trade yet.  Or signed a major FA.  

Not that I think those things are completely necessary in order for him to be successful, you can accumulate talent a few different ways.  But I wonder if he's going to package a group of prospects in order to land someone in a major trade...you know, a good old fashioned blockbuster deal.  Or, on a similar note, is he going to ever spend a significant amount on a player in free agency?  

Again, I still think he can build a competitive team and a playoff caliber team without having to do those things...but to be a full fledged GM and proficient at all parts of the craft, I wonder if he'll be able to do those things.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Drafting: A
Use of technology and Analytics: A
Development: A-
Trades: B
Waivers analysis: C+ 
International Signings: C (so far)
Minor league talent scouting and analysis: C
Major League talent acquisition: C

Using Educational standards that comes out to 2.9

So B- for me.

Can you explain the grade for minor league talent scouting and analysis?  What are we talking about there, and why the relatively low grade for that?

[Pickles]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well an A grade basically means there is no room for improvement. 

It’s hard to see that he can’t improve on things, especially at the ML and Intl level.

An "A" is 90+.  It does not imply perfection.  At least on my scale.

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Drafting: A
Use of technology and Analytics: A
Development: A-
Trades: B
Waivers analysis: C+ 
International Signings: C (so far)
Minor league talent scouting and analysis: C
Major League talent acquisition: C

Using Educational standards that comes out to 2.9

So B- for me.

IMO the first three need to be weighted higher than the others. They are the foundation of a successful organization. I would give him a higher grade on waivers (Perez, Baker, Urias, and Mateo is solid B at least IMO) and international is more N/A than C. 

[LookinUp]

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think the thing giving me pause from giving him a A- or flat out A is that he hasn't really pulled off a major trade yet.  Or signed a major FA.  

Not that I think those things are completely necessary in order for him to be successful, you can accumulate talent a few different ways.  But I wonder if he's going to package a group of prospects in order to land someone in a major trade...you know, a good old fashioned blockbuster deal.  Or, on a similar note, is he going to ever spend a significant amount on a player in free agency?  

Again, I still think he can build a competitive team and a playoff caliber team without having to do those things...but to be a full fledged GM and proficient at all parts of the craft, I wonder if he'll be able to do those things.

It stinks he wasn't in charge of trading Machado, Bundy and Gausman. Have to figure the return would have better fit his profile for success than what we ended up with.

[George Zuverink]

I tend to get impatient with criticisms of things he’s done or not yet accomplished but I’d still give him “only” a B+. My grading frame of reference was my time as a physics major in college. The tests were usually brutally hard. Passing was often below 40% with the top grade of 65%. Several of us, including me, went to grad school. Several of those earned PhD’s, not including me. Some of those became unhappy professors at third rate state schools complaining about dumbed down textbooks for disinterested students.  Those were B’s. Most, including me, became successful in some profession using the math skills and thought processes developed in college. I’d give them a C+

An A- would have been for someone who became a tenured professor at a top tier university, like UMD, College Park. An A  would have been someone who had won a prize less prestigious than the Nobel, which would be an A+.

That’s all with the benefit of hindsight and I hope that there’s still more to the story of Elias and the O’s. What could he have done to get an A four years in? Brought up a couple of the farm team studs this year sooner than he did.  Have a few more visibly promising prospects from the pool of international signings he was able to make. Forego some of the free agent signings after the All Star break. Not release a few of the guys who became successful elsewhere.

Edited November 18, 2022 by George Zuverink

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

It stinks he wasn't in charge of trading Machado, Bundy and Gausman. Have to figure the return would have better fit his profile for success than what we ended up with.

It is interesting to think about.  I'm not sure what he'd have got in return for those guys but I tend to agree with you that the return most likely would have been better.

[interloper]

A.

Complete overhaul of the organization, its processes, its reputation, its success in development, drafting, analytics, international, etc. All while navigating a pandemic, a lock out, Chris Davis, Angelos family drama, etc.

He's an absolute star of a GM. 

Next steps are big and could change this game for me though.

[tabletop]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

It stinks he wasn't in charge of trading Machado, Bundy and Gausman. Have to figure the return would have better fit his profile for success than what we ended up with.

He did trade Bundy. He traded him for Bradish, Peek, Mattson, and Brnovich.

[Big Al]

A +

[RZNJ]

I am actually curious to hear Can of Corn chime in with a grade but I also want to see his reasons for the grade.   I'm assuming he will not grade him an A and possibly not even a B but I am curious.

I would say an A or B+ for what he's done to date but he's got an incomplete in some areas.   He hasn't really proven to be a shrewd trader yet.   Most of the grade is based on fortifying the minor league system and drafting.   I'd put the Latin American program as too soon to call but I'd give him an A in that area just for hiring Coby Perez, getting a system in place, and starting the Academy construction.   I'd give him an A for the SYSTEM that's in place.   Everyone seems to be on the same page.  The minor league coaches seem to be all teaching the same things.  Results matter though.   So far, so good.

Edited November 18, 2022 by RZNJ

[interloper]

52 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I am actually curious to hear Can of Corn chime in with a grade but I also want to see his reasons for the grade. 

I second this, if only because it's extremely rare that CoC stakes his name to an actual concrete opinion/participates in any poll, etc.