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So...uh, when does free agency start?

Bahama O's Fan

By Bahama O's Fan
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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
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4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

It's the price of doing business.    It's an overpay but I don't think it's horrible.    Almost any contract is going to be an overpay.   You can see the market shaping up.   You can wait for the leftovers but I wouldn't advise it.

I guess I'm the only one who likes Taillon.   At 31, the spin rates, I think there is upside there and even if he doesn't take it to another level, he's still a decent 2 WAR type of pitcher.

I don’t mind overpaying for quality.

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Lopez is under team control for two years, Mullins for 3.   Who are the internal options to replace Mullins?  Pretty much anyone who’s played in the majors or AAA is a defensive downgrade.  Beavers or

Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

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20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Bowden is predicting the Os signing Taillon for 4/70 in his latest article on The Athletic.

That sounds like a horrible contract.

Let’s see what he’s got for other pitchers, for context:

Senga 3/$72 mm

Syndergaard 1/$14 mm

Verlander 3/$135 mm

Walker 3/$48 mm

Rodon 5/$144 mm

Eflin 3/$36 mm

Quintana 2/$28 mm

Bassitt 4/$74 mm

deGrom 5/$200 mm

Eovaldi 5/$90 mm

At those prices, and assuming we’re not getting deGrom/Verlander/Rodon, which deals would you prefer to Taillon, assuming we will do at least one of these?  (Yes, I know you might not want to do any of them.)

I think I like the Bassitt/Walker/Quintana deals all better than the proposed Taillon deal.  Probably Senga too.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t mind overpaying for quality.

Taillon was a 2.3 FWAR according to Fangraphs in 2022.   He gets a mixed bag on Baseball Savant but an analytical department might see promise in 64% percentile chase rate, 83% percentile curveball spin, 85% percentile fastball spin rate, and 94% percentile walk rate.   

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Subpar K rate, doesn’t miss bats and mediocre fastball.

If he can stay healthy, I think Taillon has a relatively high floor but his ceiling is pretty limited. 

Mediocre (49th percentile) velocity.   Well above average spin rate (85th percentile).    O's may think they can get more out of that.    He's also above average in extension so that fastball isn't really mediocre when you factor in everything.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mediocre (49th percentile) velocity.   Well above average spin rate (85th percentile).    O's may think they can get more out of that.    He's also above average in extension so that fastball isn't really mediocre when you factor in everything.

Except he isn’t getting Ks and he isn’t missing bats.

Not sure why we should think he has a higher ceiling considering he’s 31. Most players don’t get better in their 30s. Not impossible but shouldn’t really be a factor as to why you would sign him.

 

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Except he isn’t getting Ks and he isn’t missing bats.

Not sure why we should think he has a higher ceiling considering he’s 31. Most players don’t get better in their 30s. Not impossible but shouldn’t really be a factor as to why you would sign him.

 

1. Gausman

2. Bassitt

3. Tyler Anderson

4. DeGrom

 

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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I think that Kremer, Bradish, Grayson and Wells are better than any of the 2nd tier guys.  And Hall has the potential to be a better starter if he finds his control.

The reason to spend  is because of the innings limits on Grayson, the injury uncertainty of Wells and the lack of control of Hall.    But all five could be better long term starters.

Therefore I don't want to go 4 or 5 years on a FA starter.   I would go 3/53 for Taillon with a club option included at 17m.    Walker and Syndergraad would also work.   

The determining factor for me is who Holt thinks he can improve.

 

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Jameson Taillon has been a #4 starter for years now, the Orioles would be completely insane to pay him $17+ million a year for 4 years just to see if he can follow that type of career arc.

He was worth 2.3 FWAR just last year.   He's been over 3 WAR twice before his TJ surgery.    When you say he's been a #4 starter for years, you are using the 2019-2020 seasons when he didn't pitch.   In 2018 he had 3.9 FWAR.   He missed the 2019 and 2020 seasons.   In 144 IP in his first season back from T.J. he was worth 1.9 FWAR.    Last year 2.3 WAR.    

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

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Posted

Big Ben named Sean Manaea as a guy he thinks the Orioles should target. LHP, 30, 170+ IP last year but fell from a 3.91 in 2021 to a 4.96 in 2022 (ouch). 

Seems like a guy we might be able to get back on track, and definitely fits that tier 2-3 zone. Not very exciting though, more of a Lyles replacement than anything. 

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