Orioles interested in Syndergaard?

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If you sign him as a second arm, that tells me Wells goes to the pen and they aren’t ready for Hall to be in the rotation.

Im ok with both of those things but the question I have is simply this. Is Noah better than Wells?  I don’t think he is and he certainly isn’t to the point where the money difference is worth it.

That's what you want.  I think Wells has more value to this team in the pen.  Then you don't have to bank on waiver wire to fill out the pen if you can move Wells and Voth there and you know what you're getting.

Not saying it has to be Thor, but need two pitchers.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, MarCakes21 said:

That's what you want.  I think Wells has more value to this team in the pen.  Then you don't have to bank on waiver wire to fill out the pen if you can move Wells and Voth there and you know what you're getting.

Not saying it has to be Thor, but need two pitchers.

I'd say this is a reasonable analysis.

The question in my mind is whether we'll end up with better arms and more control if we trade for them rather than buy them.

[Sports Guy]

GRod, Lopez, Rogers, Bradish and Kremer

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Syndergaard was worth 2.2 fwar as a shell of his former self.   There could be some upside there if more velocity returns.

Or if he simply gets better at deploying his current stuff. I would imagine our analytics team would have some ideas about that.

[owknows]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Or if he simply gets better at deploying his current stuff. I would imagine our analytics team would have some ideas about that.

Or if he simply delivers his current stuff in a more cavernous ballpark.

[MarCakes21]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

GRod, Lopez, Rogers, Bradish and Kremer

 

I don't think that elevates enough in my opinion.  Probably a similar return if Well gives you 150IP to Lopez.  Maybe a win shorter.  And I like Rogers upside, but not at 3.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

Or if he simply delivers his current stuff in a more cavernous ballpark.

Yeah, that too.

I really like Syndergaard as an upside play.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I don't think that elevates enough in my opinion.  Probably a similar return if Well gives you 150IP to Lopez.  Maybe a win shorter.  And I like Rogers upside, but not at 3.

You aren’t getting better pitchers/better upsides  than those guys.  

[MarCakes21]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You aren’t getting better pitchers/better upsides  than those guys.  

One can dream.  I'll take my chances with money and hope for something like Bassitt and Rodon but would be okay with Bassitt+ Eovaldi/Thor.  Supplement next offseason with ML ready talent in your farm to take you over the top

[Sports Guy]

Just now, MarCakes21 said:

One can dream.  I'll take my chances with money and hope for something like Bassitt and Rodon but would be okay with Bassitt+ Eovaldi/Thor.  Supplement next offseason with ML ready talent in your farm to take you over the top

You can dream and that’s fine..but it’s not realistic.  Thor is. Rodon isn’t.  Bassitt and Eovaldi probably aren’t.

And when I say realistic, I’m not defining that as what the Os can do. I’m defining as what they are very likely to do.

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I don't think that elevates enough in my opinion.  Probably a similar return if Well gives you 150IP to Lopez.  Maybe a win shorter.  And I like Rogers upside, but not at 3.

I think the Marlins could ask for Gunnar if we asked for Lopez and Rogers.    

Mullins for one probably fair though for me that wouldn't do anything for the short or medium term other than stir the mix.

The other one they might ask say Cowser and Mayo.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

I think the Marlins could ask for Gunnar if we asked for Lopez and Rogers.    

Mullins for one probably fair though for me that wouldn't do anything for the short or medium term other than stir the mix.

The other one they might ask say Cowser and Mayo.

I would be trying to sell them on Hays as a regular CF. At the very least, he would probably be an overall upgrade over the guys they have been deploying in center for the last few years.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, owknows said:

Or if he simply delivers his current stuff in a more cavernous ballpark.

I always look at ERA+ rather than ERA.  Syndergaard’s 3.94 ERA last year translated to 103 ERA+.  That’s what Krehbiel’s 3.90 ERA equated to.  So, no reason to think that playing in OPACY is going to make any big difference.  

The bigger question is, now that he’s a year further way from TJ surgery and has scraped off the rust, can he build on his decent performance from last year?  Could the O’s help him?  Who knows?
 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Frobby

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I always look at ERA+ rather than ERA.  Syndergaard’s 3.94 ERA last year translated to 103 ERA+.  That’s what Krehbiel’s 3.90 ERA equated to.  So, no reason to think that playing in OPACY is going to make any big difference.  

The bigger question is, now that he’s a year further way from TJ surgery and has scraped off the rust, can he build on his decent performance from last year?  Could the O’s help him?  Who knows?
 

It's funny how much of a difference it makes for some... and it makes none at all for others.

The Orioles had a handful of pitchers that had some pretty amazing differences in Home/Away splits last year. I spent part of the morning populating a spreadsheet with the 5 pitchers I thought benefitted most. Those being Kremer, Lyles, Perez, Zimmermann and Vespi.

I think the equation is a little more complex than Home Runs. It's the confidence to pitch aggressively when you might otherwise worry about home runs that makes the difference I think.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I think the Marlins could ask for Gunnar if we asked for Lopez and Rogers.    

Mullins for one probably fair though for me that wouldn't do anything for the short or medium term other than stir the mix.

The other one they might ask say Cowser and Mayo.

Lol..they can ask but they aren’t going to ever trade guys like that if they think that is the return.

It’s like us offering Mullins for Eury Perez. We can ask but it’s not realistic.