Roch talks winter meetings

[Frobby]

Just now, tabletop said:

“I think a lot of that’s going to comethrough our own guys going into arbitration“

I don’t know why when Elias says he wants to increase payroll everyone takes his word seriously and gets excited but when he tells you where “a lot of that” increase is coming from he’s not be believed.

I hope they do spend. I think they should. In a perfect world they’d add 2 more starters and a hitter or two IMO. I just am going based off what Elias is saying.

It boils down to what does he mean by “a lot?”  You seem to be interpreting that as “the majority.”  That’s possible, but I don’t necessarily interpret it that way when reading the entirety of his remarks.  

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One thing about the Gibson acquisition is that it frees up Elias to include a pitcher in any trade discussions.  Let’s say there’s a team that is willing to trade us a good SP but they want a young SP with some upside back.  We now have the flexibility to consider trading someone who’s made some starts for this team (Hall/Bradish/Kremer/Voth/Wells) and we’d still have good pitching depth following the trade.   

True. Either that or it allows Voth and Wells to strengthen the bullpen.  BTW, I saw 7M for Gibson. I don’t trust the site but it makes more sense to me. 5M sounds too low and 7M is what Lyles got last year so that’s my guess.

https://salarysport.com/baseball/player/kyle-gibson/

[tabletop]

29 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Elias said a #1-#3 starter. He wasn’t specific on the bats being starter types or Franchy Cordero types.   He can’t sell Gibson as a #3 starter.  He can’t sell Andrew Heaney as a proven #3 starter.   It seems unlikely they go 4 years for Bassitt or Taillon.   He’s consistently mentioned the trade option.  He’s got plenty of chips.

Sure they can. Another poster has already stated that he’s just that and said it’s all because of Holt. They can say he was an all star, proven veteran, innings eater, etc..

[RZNJ]

I never bought into the bats as being anything more than supplemental pieces.  You could argue the Orioles have incumbents at every position except maybe DH (Stowers).  There is no way to add two bats without subtracting one.   
 

I actually think the Cordero signing is a clue that Stowers might be part of a deal.  Very similar skill sets.

 

[RZNJ]

Just now, tabletop said:

Sure they can. Another poster has already stated that he’s just that and said it’s all because of Holt. They can say he was an all star, proven veteran, innings eater, etc..

I disagree.  Let’s leave at that.  Time will tell.  I don’t believe Elias will sell  Gibson as the #1-#3 starter.  

[tabletop]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I disagree.  Let’s leave at that.  Time will tell.  I don’t believe Elias will sell  Gibson as the #1-#3 starter.  

Oh I don’t either I am just saying it’s certainly possible that they could.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the whole quote from Elias that Roch is paraphrasing:

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” GM Mike Elias said in an appearance on The Front Office Show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM.  “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively.  We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”

“The success…has only cemented those plans.  I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying.  I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/gm-mike-elias-orioles-will-significantly-escalate-the-payroll-during-offseason.html

So, interpret that as you will.   I certainly don’t take it to mean that the O’s are going to sit on their hands and treat this offseason like the last several.   Because that’s clearly not what he said.   

Exploring …aggressively.. is not the same as  saying we are going to do everything to upgrade via free agency.  GM speak, like politicians, seems to say something for every outcome.   If they sign no one major, well we said we would “explore aggressively “ but found no fit. 

The most specific part is the first part, that “much the escalation in payroll” will be on “our guys in arbitration. “ 

And that he will focus on trade improvements as they did in Houston at this stage rather than free agent stars. 
 

But talk is cheap.  I will judge the actions not what he says.  Not impressed by the actions as of today … at all.  But will wait for Christmas .. hoping it will not be like this guy .. waiting to the last minute 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2022 by tntoriole

[Roll Tide]

In this free-agent class, Taillon is in that next tier behind deGrom, Verlander and Carlos Rodón. Once Verlander gets his big Mets contract, there’s going to be serious sticker shock with Rodón, dragging his market out a tad.

But the Orioles -- a team ready to announce its presence in the marketplace and a team in need of more stable starting pitching -- is going to recognize that Taillon, after all the injuries and the illness, still has more in the tank -- in terms of overall performance and consistency -- than what we’ve seen, to date, and can help guide them where they’re trying to go.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-winter-meetings-predictions?partnerId=zh-20221204-773514-mlb-1-A&qid=1026&utm_id=zh-20221204-773514-mlb-1-A&bt_ee=bROCfgv%2BWuhjmoJrQI6%2FeNSSf1R1L4BV50Pb6utVKqyzpK1dlubtGVhcGMsKoifD&bt_ts=1670164390603

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It boils down to what does he mean by “a lot?”  You seem to be interpreting that as “the majority.”  That’s possible, but I don’t necessarily interpret it that way when reading the entirety of his remarks.  

It may have been a poor choice of words but I would have preferred to hear “some of it”.     I will be surprised if the total 2023 average earnings of this years acquisitions is over 25M.  5-7 goes to Gibson.   Most of the rest would go to another pitcher but I’m leaning towards trade for a pitcher making less than that.

[sevastras]

There are several trade targets that would increase payroll but wouldn’t break the bank or handcuff them in anyway. 
 

Corbin Burnes

Shane Bieber

Jose Lopez

[Roll Tide]

43 minutes ago, sevastras said:

There are several trade targets that would increase payroll but wouldn’t break the bank or handcuff them in anyway. 
 

Corbin Burnes

Shane Bieber

Jose Lopez

I saw that Burnes isn’t going to be traded

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

As much as I love me some Trea Turner, why in the world would the O's be interested in any of the 4 FA SS? Their farm system is full of impact middle infielders including a recent 1/1 draft pick. I think all of us should be relieved that they looking elsewhere.

deGrom is off the market at a remarkable (some would say stupid) price. Verlander is almost certainly going to NY to one team or another. Rodon will be expensive and therefore risky. But he's good, he's left handed and he doesn't cost prospects. I say the kick the tires but aren't likely to pay the price. So I'm not holding my breath for a ToR FA starter.

I hope the recent statement by the Brewers that they are not trading Burnes is just pre-trade postering. He's the only realistic ToR starter I see the O's obtaining. It will require a ton of prospects but It makes the most sense, IMHO. The winter meeting are the time when these types of trades are structured. Im hoping for the best.

I agree. The Orioles do not spend that kind of money, not yet anyway. And there is abundant talent at the doorstep. Might be different if they had a little more certainty in the rotation already and were missing a piece.

Though, I will play devil’s advocate for a moment with the FA SS scenario. Let’s say they sign Trey Turner for a big deal and he is willing to play 2B. He is our lead off hitter for the time he is here, one of the best lead off guys in the league. That is a big cornerstone to me. You could package some of the young infield depth for a trade for a TOR like Burnes. You could send Mullins out in a trade as well, since you have replaced his expected offense with someone better at the top of the lineup. A big talent like that can have multiple impacts beyond what defensive position they play. No guarantee that a prospect, even a Westburg or Ortiz is going to be the guy we think they will. Turner is that guy already. So, depends on what you are trying to achieve and when. 

The biggest dynamic I am wondering is how they handle the infield In 2023 and beyond. Is Mateo their guy? Is he a placeholder until Joey Ortiz comes up? Does Gunnar take SS? What to do with Westburg? Urias? Norby? Is Mountcastle their long term 1B? He doesn’t seem to fit their philosophy, and I don’t believe he is, honestly. The Orioles’ philosophy has revealed itself now with regard to hitters. Mountcastle and Hays look to be square pegs in round holes. And really Mateo as well, but the defense trumps a lot of things. We’ll see. 

[Orioles0615]

"They’re at the stage of the rebuild "

The rebuild is over. Stop using that excuse. Start using the phrase at this phase as a contender. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, tabletop said:

Sure they can. Another poster has already stated that he’s just that and said it’s all because of Holt. They can say he was an all star, proven veteran, innings eater, etc..

That’s one poster, and all he’s said is that maybe Holt can make him something better than a back of rotation starter.   

[Jim'sKid26]

25 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I agree. The Orioles do not spend that kind of money, not yet anyway. And there is abundant talent at the doorstep. Might be different if they had a little more certainty in the rotation already and were missing a piece.

Though, I will play devil’s advocate for a moment with the FA SS scenario. Let’s say they sign Trey Turner for a big deal and he is willing to play 2B. He is our lead off hitter for the time he is here, one of the best lead off guys in the league. That is a big cornerstone to me. You could package some of the young infield depth for a trade for a TOR like Burnes. You could send Mullins out in a trade as well, since you have replaced his expected offense with someone better at the top of the lineup. A big talent like that can have multiple impacts beyond what defensive position they play. No guarantee that a prospect, even a Westburg or Ortiz is going to be the guy we think they will. Turner is that guy already. So, depends on what you are trying to achieve and when. 

The biggest dynamic I am wondering is how they handle the infield In 2023 and beyond. Is Mateo their guy? Is he a placeholder until Joey Ortiz comes up? Does Gunnar take SS? What to do with Westburg? Urias? Norby? Is Mountcastle their long term 1B? He doesn’t seem to fit their philosophy, and I don’t believe he is, honestly. The Orioles’ philosophy has revealed itself now with regard to hitters. Mountcastle and Hays look to be square pegs in round holes. And really Mateo as well, but the defense trumps a lot of things. We’ll see. 

I have made a similar argument for Turner, if you look back on my previous posts. So I really can't disagree with you. I also enjoy your perspective and read your posts with great interest. Frequently learning something new and innovative. 

To do what you have outlined above would require a level of sequencing that is extremely hard to do. First you have to orchestrate the trade with Milwaukee. Then you have to sign Turner, then you have to orchestrate a trade with Miami. If any of those parts fails to go down you are a bit stuck. We can do it easily on this message board. It's another story to do it in a multi billion dollar industry. Cool idea, though.

I am very interested in how the 2023 infield shakes out. Might be a bit of a work in progress. There is real risk that this team regresses in 2023. As SG likes to point out, taking a lot of risks and having a lot of ?s can lead to a lot of disappointment.