Taking Elias and Hyde’s comments at face value

[Sports Guy]

Here are some things Elias is saying (paraphrasing):

1) While not ruling it out, unlikely to trade established MLers

2) As of today, the IF is likely to be Mountcastle, Urias, Mateo and Henderson.

3) They want 1 more starter and have engaged in talks with several pitchers and are offering multi year deals to all of them.

4) They want a LH bat that can has good versatility.

5) Elias definitely hinting that years are a big issue for him in these FA deals (more years leads to more dollars)

6) Grayson is in the rotation as long as he’s healthy and looks fine.

If we are too say that all of these comments are truthful, what does that leave the team with?

Well first of all, it means Mullins and Santander are on the 2023 Os.

That means the team has the above IF, Adley at C, Mullins in CF and Hays in LF (Hyde specifically mentioned his defense in a recent interview even though the defensive numbers don’t favor him now).  
 

I think Santander is probably going to be slated to play first and LF part time and DH more often. 
 

Stowers continues to be a guy I think they are trying to replace or at least one they aren’t willing to give full time at bats to quite yet.

On the mound, they want one more starter which likely means Wells to the pen and Hall either starts in the pen (dumb idea) or he goes to AAA to build up more innings.

The pen sounds like it will be similar to last year.  

So, they need to find a starter that isn’t/won’t be signed long term(defining that as longer than 3 years) or has service time left if they make a trade and they want one more hitter.

If they make a significant trade, it will come from the IF prospects(not Holliday) and a guy like Stowers and maybe Cowser although I tend to think he stays.

Seems to me that they want to bring back the same team as last year but add one better starter, GRod and a more versatile and likely better all around Mancini.

Other than that, what you see is what you get. Guys like Westburg and Ortiz could force their ways up but it sounds like they will be starting the year in AAA if not traded.

So, who is the pitcher and who is the hitter they get and how do they get them?

[RZNJ]

Why is starting Hall in the bullpen a bad idea?  Look at Corbin Burnes career.

[Frobby]

I think your summary is pretty accurate.  I’m waiting to see who the pitcher and LH hitter will be.  

[RVAOsFan]

I think this is pretty accurate.  I think Mullins is a lock in CF unless he gets a trade offer he can't refuse for him.  I think corner OF makes the most sense to upgrade and I think Benintendi is the target.  Outfield defense gets better with Santander in more of a DH role.

Maybe I missed it but all  I have seen is that we have multi year offers out to starting pitchers.  I think Elias clearly wants a good starter and I haven't seen anything about a cap to the multi year offers.  I have some faith whoever he is eyeing will be a good signing.

[Aristotelian]

Good summary of the face value interpretation. Only question is where you are getting Santander at 1B out of that. 

The way things are going, my choice for hitter would be Conforto. He is LH, has a high OBP, and Elias hinted that he likes guys on one year prove-it contracts. Conforto has every incentive to put up a monster season to turn into a $100M+ long term contract. He has the ceiling to do so, the question of course is health. 

For pitcher, I wouldn't count us out yet on Eovaldi. Elias does say we have multiyear offers out. He comes closer to the profile we are targeting than Rodon. I can't think of anyone else on the FA list that we would go to multiyear on. Maaaaybe Syndergaard? If we are looking at one year guys, Wacha and Kluber.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I'll say Brandon Belt on a 1 year deal and Sean Manaea on a 2 year deal with an option of some kind, with no notable trades prior to the start of the season. I think the Marlins will ultimately hook up with Arizona for one of their young CFs, which eliminates Lopez and Rogers as potential targets, and that Elias will not meet Seattle's asking price for a single season of Chris Flexen, and I also do not think Burnes, Woodruff, Bieber, or Gallen are available right now.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

 

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

For pitcher, I wouldn't count us out yet on Eovaldi. Elias does say we have multiyear offers out. He comes closer to the profile we are targeting than Rodon. I can't think of anyone else on the FA list that we would go to multiyear on. Maaaaybe Syndergaard? If we are looking at one year guys, Wacha and Kluber.

Eovaldi is the least likely SP target after Rodon, IMO. I do not think Elias wants to burn a high draft pick, and especially not within the division. Bassitt is similarly unlikely due to the pick, and his desire for at least 4 years.

If the multiyear offer claim is true, I think Syndergaard, Manaea, and Wacha are the most likely candidates. 

[Jim'sKid26]

9 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'll say Brandon Belt on a 1 year deal and Sean Manaea on a 2 year deal with an option of some kind, with no notable trades prior to the start of the season. I think the Marlins will ultimately hook up with Arizona for one of their young CFs, which eliminates Lopez and Rogers as potential targets, and that Elias will not meet Seattle's asking price for a single season of Chris Flexen, and I also do not think Burnes, Woodruff, Bieber, or Gallen are available right now.

Why Belt? I'm not disagreeing just curious. I've not heard his name mentioned in conjunction with the O's.

I agree that the Pitching situation likely calls for a LH pitcher however, Syndergaard is also in the mix, I think.

I agree with your assessment of the trade landscape now. It will be interesting to see what happens at the deadline.

[oriole]

Good summary. But it’s also worth considering that Elias could be stretching the truth. I could still see him trading a major league piece. Almost every position has multiple internal options except for 1B and CF, and even those positions aren’t impossible to fill in-house. It’s probably a good idea to talk down on the possibility of trading them to make them seem harder to get. Not sure that has any actual impact on their trade value but then again, maybe it does? 
 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Why Belt? I'm not disagreeing just curious. I've not heard his name mentioned in conjunction with the O's.

I agree that the Pitching situation likely calls for a LH pitcher however, Syndergaard is also in the mix, I think.

I agree with your assessment of the trade landscape now. It will be interesting to see what happens at the deadline.

They have repeatedly said that they want a LHB for the 1B/DH/COF mix and Belt fits the bill, and he will be available on a relatively cheap 1 year deal. 

[Pickles]

I think Sports Guy has pretty accurately summed up the O's position.  I also think, quite frankly, that anybody who was paying attention could have made this same summary a few months ago.

It never made a ton of sense to trade from the ML inventory; the only guy who would bring back real value- Mullins- has no internal replacement.  We won't start trading MLers until we can replace them internally.

The team was not going to shop at the top of the FA market- least of all for pitching.

People project their fantasies upon reality, and then get upset and distressed when reality doesn't reflect them back.

[Sports Guy]

I tend to agree that Manaea is the most likely pitcher they sign. He’s coming off a down year, so a 1-2 year deal is likely. He has some level of upside but his statcast numbers are terrible. But his FIP has been sub 4 for most of the last 3-4 years and his K and BB numbers are respectable.  Add in playing with a good defense and the wall (he has let up a lot of homers) and the Os could be getting someone for a little bit of a bargain, which is what they want.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think Sports Guy has pretty accurately summed up the O's position.  I also think, quite frankly, that anybody who was paying attention could have made this same summary a few months ago.

It never made a ton of sense to trade from the ML inventory; the only guy who would bring back real value- Mullins- has no internal replacement.  We won't start trading MLers until we can replace them internally.

The team was not going to shop at the top of the FA market- least of all for pitching.

People project their fantasies upon reality, and then get upset and distressed when reality doesn't reflect them back.

I think not trading Santander and Tate is going to come back to bite them.  Of course, if they have no value, I wouldn’t move them but I doubt that to be the case.

I’ll withhold my judgement on keeping Mullins until I see what else this does. I still much prefer to trade Mullins vs a bunch of controllable prospects but I am also ok with keeping Mullins for another year because I think he should be a 3-4 WAR guy in 2023. It really just depends on what we do.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think Sports Guy has pretty accurately summed up the O's position.  I also think, quite frankly, that anybody who was paying attention could have made this same summary a few months ago.

It never made a ton of sense to trade from the ML inventory; the only guy who would bring back real value- Mullins- has no internal replacement.  We won't start trading MLers until we can replace them internally.

The team was not going to shop at the top of the FA market- least of all for pitching.

People project their fantasies upon reality, and then get upset and distressed when reality doesn't reflect them back.

Even people like me who set out with fairly modest expectations are likely to end up disappointed.

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I tend to agree that Manaea is the most likely pitcher they sign. He’s coming off a down year, so a 1-2 year deal is likely. He has some level of upside but his statcast numbers are terrible. But his FIP has been sub 4 for most of the last 3-4 years and his K and BB numbers are respectable.  Add in playing with a good defense and the wall (he has let up a lot of homers) and the Os could be getting someone for a little bit of a bargain, which is what they want.

If we end up with Gibson and Manaea as our rotation "upgrades," this offseason will be an abject failure and an embarrassment.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Even people like me who set out with fairly modest expectations are likely to end up disappointed.

If we end up with Gibson and Manaea as our rotation "upgrades," this offseason will be an abject failure and an embarrassment.

I don’t disagree.  That said, we have to remember that perhaps the biggest rotation upgrade is Grayson.