Which winter meeting contracts would you have matched or beaten and why?

[jamalshw]

6 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I agree that we are at the point of needing to make trades, but the people we should trade are Urias, Hays and Mateo.  Trading someone like Westburg or Cowser means that we are settling for mediocre production from an established position player instead of playing young players with much more upside.  The reason to sign a free agent starter is that you can't trade for a really good starter unless you are willing to give up top prospects.  I'd rather those top prospects stay in Baltimore.  

It's a fair point, but on the Hays front, I don't know that he's a starter anyway. You have Santander, Mullins and Stowers. Does he start over Stowers? Maybe. There's room for him to get some ABs with them of course but given I expect an offensive addition as well, there's not room for all of them to start everyday. But even if you keep Cowser, we do have a bit of a pending logjam in the infield. Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo, and Hernaiz are all at AA and AAA and there's not room for all of them on the roster. Plus you do still, of course, have Urias and Mateo at the MLB level and Holliday, Bencosme, and Wagner just behind the guys I already listed. I think a deal can be had with a Mateo/Urias/Hays alongside a couple prospects without decimating the farm and still being able to fill all the INF positions with homegrown guys by the end of 2023. I don't think we are hindered much if we move Westburg or Ortiz provided we keep the other. If we believe our INF will be Henderson, Holliday, and Ortiz (as an example) in the next couple years, then Norby, Westburg and Mayo become available in a deal. Obviously we need to retain some depth, but I think deals can be had for pitchers at least of the Bassitt level without it hurting too bad. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not many people think we are in on either of those players.  A few fantasizers, perhaps. 

I really don’t care what the pundits think.  
 

 

Oh I agree. I just think them signing marks the "end" of the major free agent acquisition period and those writers probably don't want to put their hit pieces out just yet just in case the Orioles surprise us. 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

WAY too early to call anything a failure.  If tomorrow a trade is pulled off getting us Lopez or something like that as we've been discussing, would you still consider it a failure because we traded for our SP needs instead of buying them?  I'm not saying it WILL happen, and I'm not saying we shouldn't be disappointed SO FAR, and we SHOULD be ready to be disappointed over all if nothing happens.  But to act like on 12/13/22 that the offseason is over and it's been a failure is premature.  

In the many offseasons here on the board there are two general groups.. one doesn’t believe the Os are going to do anything they want to see and the others who always say the offseason is not over yet. 
 

I admit I am in the former group.  And freely hope every year I am proven wrong.  
Charlie Brown, Lucy and kicking the football often comes to mind for me during Os offseasons 

[SilverRocket]

I think an interesting poll next year would be to, at the beginning of the offseason, ask for the maximum years/dollars you would go for each of the realistic free agents.

Looking now, I wish we'd matched Bassitt's 3/63. But if I heard in October that the O's were going to make that deal, I would've thought that was too expensive. Almost all of the deals so far have been pricier than expected and makes me think trading prospects for MLB players could be the better way to go. Of course, the trade price might be similarly more expensive.

Elias has at least touted the depth of the farm system and floated the idea of trading minor leagues for major leaguers. I don't want to sell the farm, but trading a couple of the surplus prospects for a #2 or #3 starter is the kind of thing I want to see.

[HakunaSakata]

7 hours ago, jamalshw said:

It's a fair point, but on the Hays front, I don't know that he's a starter anyway. You have Santander, Mullins and Stowers. Does he start over Stowers? Maybe. There's room for him to get some ABs with them of course but given I expect an offensive addition as well, there's not room for all of them to start everyday. But even if you keep Cowser, we do have a bit of a pending logjam in the infield. Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo, and Hernaiz are all at AA and AAA and there's not room for all of them on the roster. Plus you do still, of course, have Urias and Mateo at the MLB level and Holliday, Bencosme, and Wagner just behind the guys I already listed. I think a deal can be had with a Mateo/Urias/Hays alongside a couple prospects without decimating the farm and still being able to fill all the INF positions with homegrown guys by the end of 2023. I don't think we are hindered much if we move Westburg or Ortiz provided we keep the other. If we believe our INF will be Henderson, Holliday, and Ortiz (as an example) in the next couple years, then Norby, Westburg and Mayo become available in a deal. Obviously we need to retain some depth, but I think deals can be had for pitchers at least of the Bassitt level without it hurting too bad. 

In a perfect world someone would step up and take the job from Hays during spring training. That said I highly doubt that Urias, Hayes or Mateo are enough to bring back a quality SP. Best case scenerio "maybe" we can entice someone like the Marlins to work something around Hays and Rogers since the latter's coming off a horrible season. Still probably a long shot though, because Rogers peak level of success has been MUCH higher than Hays. 

[Sports Guy]

On 12/11/2022 at 5:58 PM, Roll Tide said:

Yes … but $1 million per. But, I suspect he still doesn’t sign here.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35211926/mlb-free-agency-masataka-yoshida-red-sox-contract
 

I sent texts around to a number of scouts and execs explaining what I thought his tools were (high contact, very good approach, average-ish power, limited defensive ability) and asking what I was missing between that scouting report and what the Red Sox paid.
 

"Nothing," replied one international scouting director. "Overpay for me ... too rich imo," from another scouting director. A third exec: "I have no idea." A fourth: "Nothing ... I wish they and him luck." A fifth: "We thought he was worth less than half of what they paid." A sixth added, "I have no words."

In total, I spoke to ten sources in the aftermath of the signing and they all had a similar breakdown. They all had some level of appreciation for the player, but thought the Red Sox overpaid by a hefty margin.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35211926/mlb-free-agency-masataka-yoshida-red-sox-contract
 

I sent texts around to a number of scouts and execs explaining what I thought his tools were (high contact, very good approach, average-ish power, limited defensive ability) and asking what I was missing between that scouting report and what the Red Sox paid.
 

"Nothing," replied one international scouting director. "Overpay for me ... too rich imo," from another scouting director. A third exec: "I have no idea." A fourth: "Nothing ... I wish they and him luck." A fifth: "We thought he was worth less than half of what they paid." A sixth added, "I have no words."

In total, I spoke to ten sources in the aftermath of the signing and they all had a similar breakdown. They all had some level of appreciation for the player, but thought the Red Sox overpaid by a hefty margin.

We shall see …but obviously in everywhere but Baltimore there is money to burn this year.

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We shall see …but obviously in everywhere but Baltimore there is money to burn this year.

Money to burn doesn’t mean you do something stupid. 

[Moose Milligan]

Correa to the Giants. 13/350. 
 

No chance I’d have done that for that dude. 

[Moose Milligan]

Damn, no opt out, full no trade. Per Heyman so who knows if that’s true. 
 

Most money ever for a SS. Turned down 160 last year. 

[Ripken]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Damn, no opt out, full no trade. Per Heyman so who knows if that’s true. 
 

Most money ever for a SS. Turned down 160 last year. 

That is beyond insane.  Really good, but IMO not great, player who misses a lot of time.  SS market gonna pay over a $Billion this year.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Correa to the Giants. 13/350. 
 

No chance I’d have done that for that dude. 

Fine by me!

[yark14]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Correa to the Giants. 13/350. 
 

No chance I’d have done that for that dude. 

350mm for a guy that will hit between .250-300 and 25 home runs with good defense in the early years.  Jordan Westburg has a chance to do that.  We know for a fact Gunnar will.

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Correa to the Giants. 13/350. 
 

No chance I’d have done that for that dude. 

I wanted Correa but 13 years is just insane. 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, yark14 said:

350mm for a guy that will hit between .250-300 and 25 home runs with good defense in the early years.  Jordan Westburg has a chance to do that.  We know for a fact Gunnar will.

You want to bet on Gunnar earning 39.5 rWAR through his age 27 season?  It could happen, but the odds aren’t favorable.