Who Dares, Wins.

[Jim'sKid26]

8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I wouldn't want to be on the hook for $40 million a year for years 3-5 if his chronic throwing arm problems cause him to miss a lot of time and/or perform at a less-than-elite level in years 1-2 and he chooses not to opt out.

Verlander was the guy to pursue if we were going to pay a pitcher $40 million a year, which we obviously were not willing to do and probably never will.

I don't want to put money the Angelos family's pockets, I simply recognize that Elias is only being given so much money to work with by said family, and gambling an enormous chunk of that allowance on a long-term deal for a guy who has only ever made 30 starts in a season once in his 8 year largely career because of throwing arm issuess seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

This is a fair criticism and almost certainly why this will never happen. So, while acknowledging your point, I would like to ask why not take the risk? $200M is a ton of money but if he gets you into the playoffs 2 out of the 5 years of the contract and gives you the ToR starter to match up with anyone in the league in a short playoff series, isn't it worth the risk? Several posters have made the point that they have the money. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

This is a fair criticism and almost certainly why this will never happen. So, while acknowledging your point, I would like to ask why not take the risk? $200M is a ton of money but if he gets you into the playoffs 2 out of the 5 years of the contract and gives you the ToR starter to match up with anyone in the league in a short playoff series, isn't it worth the risk? Several posters have made the point that they have the money. 

See

20 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't want to put money the Angelos family's pockets, I simply recognize that Elias is only being given so much money to work with by said family, and gambling an enormous chunk of that allowance on a long-term deal for a guy who has only ever made 30 starts in a season once in his 8 year largely career because of throwing arm issuess seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

@Sanity Check I found this: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/carlos-rodon-critical-giants-energy-says-something-needs-change

It seems Rodon is perceived as a pretty hard-nosed guy.

 

From the article: The work ethic was there during batting practice on Monday afternoon, even on a 100-degree day in the desert. But once the game actually started, it was more of the same. Rodón said he sees a team that needs to "play with a little more fire."

That's the natural state for Rodón, but not for many of these Giants. It is a group that's cool, calm and collected, but right now they're calmly playing baseball that's hard to watch. 

"It's definitely frustrating," Rodón said. "I think all of us would like to play better and see different results. Sometimes I tend to voice some frustration and sometimes we need it and sometimes we don't, but I think right now, something has to change."

 

My emphasis added.

[LA2]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

The irony is, he averaged 6.5 innings a start his final year with us.  That would be considered absolutely heroic today, and was pretty damned good then.  

Yes, I agree: I never had a problem with Bedard when he was an Oriole. To the contrary, I often felt he was holding back on what he justifiably really wanted to say.

[Aristotelian]

I would be all for a daring movie, but IMO Rodon is not the guy. If he had consistent sub-3.00 ERA throughout his career I'd say give him a Scherzer type deal. Maybe he earns it, but there is a lot of risk that you are overpaying for two career years vs his body of work. I just have a feeling he is more like Robbie Ray than Gerrit Cole.

IMO the bold mive is a trade for Woodruff or Burnes. If we could get either of those two without giving up Holliday I would be very, very interested. 

 

[Sports Guy]

12 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I'm surprised the pro-put-as-much-money-in-the-Angelo-pockets crowd hasn't shouted you down yet...lol

All kidding aside, you do know there is not a snowballs chance in hades that this is happening right?

The O's have made it clear that they are not interested in spending much money this year... oh I know we have to hold out hope until the end of the offseason to torture ourselves a little longer...lol

This is an argument I increasingly don’t get.

Yes, it’s not our money but we root for the team and we know what will happen if a big contract blows up in their face. We have seen it with Davis, Ubaldo and to a lesser extent, Cobb.

Now, I’m not arguing that is how it should be but what I’m saying is that is how it is. So, you have to deal with things knowing how things can go bad and how this organization will react.

As such, this contract is likely to be something that would blow up in their faces and it would likely set back what they have started.

[joelala]

10 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Are you trying to sound like a clown or does it just come naturally for you?

I wouldn't want to be on the hook for $40 million a year for years 3-5 if his chronic throwing arm problems cause him to miss a lot of time and/or perform at a less-than-elite level in years 1-2 and he chooses not to opt out.

Verlander was the guy to pursue if we were going to pay a pitcher $40 million a year, which we obviously were not willing to do and probably never will.

I don't want to put money the Angelos family's pockets, I simply recognize that Elias is only being given so much money to work with by said family, and gambling an enormous chunk of that allowance on a long-term deal for a guy who has only ever made 30 starts in a season once in his 8 year largely career because of throwing arm issuess seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

Yes to everything here.
 

Verlander was the guy to pursue and overpay for if we were serious about “blasting off.” I wouldn’t touch Rodón at his ask and there’s a reason he’s still out there. And I really like him as a pitcher but I see him as extremely volatile. Two shoulder surgeries and he’s not getting any younger. I do think he could become an elite closer if a team realizes he can’t shoulder (pun not intended) a starter’s load after a few seasons. But yea, I don’t think he’s the guy for us. 

[foxfield]

If someone wants to reference Albert Belle I at least understand. 
 

What Davis, Ubaldo and Cobb have in common is that the Orioles committed to years and money that was high…for talent that was not. 
 

[tabletop]

13 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

The Special Air Service essentially created the modern concept of special forces. Their motto is "Who dares, wins." Let's blow the whole thing up.

Offer Carlos Rodon a 5 year contract @ $40M per year. Make him turn down $200M. Give him an opt out after 2 years. 

The O's have the money. 5 years is short enough to not be entirely crippling in the current MLB economy. 

It's time to make things happen.

It would make sense if the goal was to win a world series but unfortunately the goal is to be a good team that makes the playoffs for a long period of time while spending the least amount of money possible.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, foxfield said:

If someone wants to reference Albert Belle I at least understand. 
 

What Davis, Ubaldo and Cobb have in common is that the Orioles committed to years and money that was high…for talent that was not. 
 

It has nothing to do with a talent comp. It’s the reaction to things if they go bad. This organization can’t be trusted to handle that well.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, foxfield said:

If someone wants to reference Albert Belle I at least understand. 
 

What Davis, Ubaldo and Cobb have in common is that the Orioles committed to years and money that was high…for talent that was not. 
 

I’m going to leave Davis’ insane contract to the side.   That contract was nuts.  

I think the Cobb and Ubaldo contracts were similar to many given out this winter.  Cobb was a skilled but injury prone pitcher.  He’d been worth 11.2 rWAR in 700 innings for Tampa with a 112 ERA+.   That compares pretty well with Taillon (11.5 rWAR in 787 innings, 107 ERA+) and Walker (10.1 rWAR in 898 IP, 105 ERA+).   Ubaldo was arguably a step above those guys, 20.9 rWAR in 1275 innings, 112 ERA+.   

Those contracts did not work out for us, but I don’t think either one was insane in the way Davis’ was.  

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

This is an argument I increasingly don’t get.

Yes, it’s not our money but we root for the team and we know what will happen if a big contract blows up in their face. We have seen it with Davis, Ubaldo and to a lesser extent, Cobb.

Now, I’m not arguing that is how it should be but what I’m saying is that is how it is. So, you have to deal with things knowing how things can go bad and how this organization will react.

As such, this contract is likely to be something that would blow up in their faces and it would likely set back what they have started.

I agree that offering a long term contract to Correa is not a particularly wise thing, given the condition of his back. To be honest, hearing an extensive conversation between Steve Phillips, Jim Bowden, and Jim Duquette on MLB radio last week, in terms of all he has to do just to get ready for 1 game, scarred the crap out of me in particular to how he will age.

However, to your larger point about accepting, the team's cautious (what I will call "extremely cheap" approach to free agency) is where we disagree. I don't believe that it is good for the franchise's viability in terms of being relevant in the community. As a person who was born in Baltimore, grew up here, and choose to come back to the area after moving away for work and being gone for years; I want the Orioles to do the right thing by the community so that they can be revitalized and vibrant again (like the Padres and Astros) have done. I don't want to see this team run like the Rays or A's because I don't believe (even if the reproduce the wins and loses results) that it will be good for the fanbase.

If the Orioles want to be relevant and recapture the interest of the people in the community, they have to check ALL the boxes of doing the right things, not some or even most.

I know we may not agree on this, but making major offseason moves was the right thing to reignite and reengage the fan base, especially coming off last season's surprise results. There was so much momentum to be taken advantage of (and to be clear I don't believe it's too late). I saw people wearing their O's hats and shirts around town for the first time in years. But with how the organization has behaved, I'm afraid the message that many fans will hear is, "same old Orioles". That I don't think is good for the relationship between the Orioles and their fans.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to leave Davis’ insane contract to the side.   That contract was nuts.  

I think the Cobb and Ubaldo contracts were similar to many given out this winter.  Cobb was a skilled but injury prone pitcher.  He’d been worth 11.2 rWAR in 700 innings for Tampa with a 112 ERA+.   That compares pretty well with Taillon (11.5 rWAR in 787 innings, 107 ERA+) and Walker (10.1 rWAR in 898 IP, 105 ERA+).   Ubaldo was arguably a step above those guys, 20.9 rWAR in 1275 innings, 112 ERA+.   

Those contracts did not work out for us, but I don’t think either one was insane in the way Davis’ was.  

 

If you want to say the O's are bad at choosing pitchers, you could look at some of the pitchers around the league from last year. Spending money on pitchers really doesn't look like a great strategy unless you can get the very elite guys. Looks like there is very little upside value to be had, mostly just downside risk. Gausman and Stroman may have been the only ones to outperform their AAV. Once you get below the $20M range, you may be better off with one year guys or prospects. 

 

$30M+ top tier:

*Scherzer 3/$130M 5.2 WAR/145 IP

$20-30M second tier:

Robbie Ray 5/$115M 2.1 WAR/189 IP

*Gausman 5/$110M 3.0 WAR/174 IP

$15-20M third tier:

Eduardo 5/$77M 0.1 WAR/91 IP

*Stroman 3/$71M 2.6 WAR/138 IP

<$15M fourth tier:

*Gray 4/$56M 1.4 WAR/127 IP 

Matz 4/$44M -0.4 WAR

Kikuchi 3/$36M -1.1 WAR/101 IP

DeSclafani 3/$36M -0.8 IP/19 IP

 

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to leave Davis’ insane contract to the side.   That contract was nuts.  

I think the Cobb and Ubaldo contracts were similar to many given out this winter.  Cobb was a skilled but injury prone pitcher.  He’d been worth 11.2 rWAR in 700 innings for Tampa with a 112 ERA+.   That compares pretty well with Taillon (11.5 rWAR in 787 innings, 107 ERA+) and Walker (10.1 rWAR in 898 IP, 105 ERA+).   Ubaldo was arguably a step above those guys, 20.9 rWAR in 1275 innings, 112 ERA+.   

Those contracts did not work out for us, but I don’t think either one was insane in the way Davis’ was.  

 

Yep, definitely not insane. I do think those are the types of deals you do when you can neither a) sign the top talent nor b) sign guys looking for a rebound on a 1-year deal because they're afraid of Camden Yards. What you CAN do is wait until late in the off-season and outbid other teams with more years than is ideal for these types of pitchers, who view the security of a 4 year deal as outweighing the risk of pitching in Camden Yards.

Edited December 12, 2022 by interloper

[Too Tall]

In my opinion it is he who makes the best decisions with their investments that wins. Not who dares, risks, or takes chances. All FA contracts are risks. Pitchers probably more than position players. I'm trying to think of the last team that "bought" a championship. Yankees or Mets? NOT!  Perhaps Dodgers several years ago?  I marvel at the money being thrown around right now. Do they Dare to be smart or Dare to be stupid. Time will tell. What little money I have is on the Elias Way.