It’s not sexy, but is Ross Stripling a good fit?

[maybenxtyr]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

Voth seems to get a lot of trust around here, but I'm not sure there's much justification in saying Voth would outperform Stripling. Voth threw the best 80 innings of his entire career, and did so with a FIP almost a full run above his ERA, and a 7.8 K/9. 

That's my biggest issue with trusting what we saw in 22. There were several guys that went above expectations, even if the expectations were minimal. 

 

Obviously a full season of AR and GH should vastly improve the offense, the pitching is still quite questionable.

 

 

Signing a guy like Stripling isn't a big move but if for some reason the starters carry their success over from last year he could be used as an opener, or piggyback with Grayson to limit innings. I think it's clear that there won't be any big expenditures, so anyway they can try to provide insurance is a plus for me.

[Pickles]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This thread is about Stripling..not upside.

Well upside is a relative term.

[Aristotelian]

40 minutes ago, interloper said:

Voth seems to get a lot of trust around here, but I'm not sure there's much justification in saying Voth would outperform Stripling. Voth threw the best 80 innings of his entire career, and did so with a FIP almost a full run above his ERA, and a 7.8 K/9. 

I don't trust Voth at all, but I could see giving him and Bradish a chance first, then reassess our needs and hit the trade market. Could be preferable to scraping the bottom of the barrel of the FA market. I'd be OK with Stripling though. 

[Mooreisbetter27]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Voth seems to get a lot of trust around here, but I'm not sure there's much justification in saying Voth would outperform Stripling. Voth threw the best 80 innings of his entire career, and did so with a FIP almost a full run above his ERA, and a 7.8 K/9. 

I mean... even if he did pitch to his FIP, you wouldn't want a 3.96 ERA?  And his 7.8 k's is actually lowest of his career and even lower than when he pitched in DC that year, where it was 8.7.  I'm not saying I have a lot of "trust" in him but I'd certainly want to give him a chance considering what he will be making next year (a lot less than Stripling).  

I would also venture to say a lot of the board expect him to regress from last year.  In Frobbys upside downside topic, Frobby posted Voth - D.  Nobody took umbrage with that assessment. 

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

I mean... even if he did pitch to his FIP, you wouldn't want a 3.96 ERA?  And his 7.8 k's is actually lowest of his career and even lower than when he pitched in DC that year, where it was 8.7.  I'm not saying I have a lot of "trust" in him but I'd certainly want to give him a chance considering what he will be making next year (a lot less than Stripling).  

I would also venture to say a lot of the board expect him to regress from last year.  In Frobbys upside downside topic, Frobby posted Voth - D.  Nobody took umbrage with that assessment. 

Not saying Voth couldn't be decent, but Stripling has a much longer track record of success. Voth could put up a sub-4 ERA next year, or he could totally implode and post up a 6, we don't really know. The sample size is pretty small. 

By the way, this isn't me hoping we rush out to sign Stripling, I'm just a little more skeptical of Voth than others. I'm fine rolling with what we have at this point honestly. If we do sign someone, I like Voth out of the bullpen quite a bit if his command holds up.

[Moose Milligan]

I think the changes that Voth made for the Orioles when he got here were well chronicled.  I think he could be for real.

 

[Frobby]

Projections for Stripling so far:

ZiPS: 114 IP, 4.25 ERA

Marcel: 129 IP, 3.84 ERA

Steamer: 147 IP, 4.32 ERA

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, tabletop said:

2.92era last year as a starter. Projected anywhere from 2/18 - 3/30. That seems like it could be a pretty nice deal for whoever ends up signing him.

I don’t think he fits the mold.  In fact, his stats look a little tippy.  
 

But what are the odds Stripling signs a 1 year deal with a player option that’s quasi-team friendly ($9m plus incentives w/ a $7m option)?  It gives Stripling a floor and a path to make more if he’s successful.  He still has a negative history but another year with good numbers and he could be in the $15m/year range.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

I don’t think he fits the mold.  In fact, his stats look a little tippy.  
 

But what are the odds Stripling signs a 1 year deal with a player option that’s quasi-team friendly ($9m plus incentives w/ a $7m option)?  It gives Stripling a floor and a path to make more if he’s successful.  He still has a negative history but another year with good numbers and he could be in the $15m/year range.

I don't know why he'd sign a deal significantly worse than Gibson's. 

[Just Regular]

All of his 2022 relief came early (not sure if he was working back from something).   His ratios were actually worse as a reliever.

Reliever - 11/6 K/BB in 11 innings

Starter - 100/14 K/BB in 123 innings

Corey Kluber joined him as the Top 2 guys with best walk rate among the 100-odd starters who cleared 120 IP.    I suppose either would fit in with last year's strategy to aim for bigger parts of the strike zone.

[tabletop]

40 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I don’t think he fits the mold.  In fact, his stats look a little tippy.  
 

But what are the odds Stripling signs a 1 year deal with a player option that’s quasi-team friendly ($9m plus incentives w/ a $7m option)?  It gives Stripling a floor and a path to make more if he’s successful.  He still has a negative history but another year with good numbers and he could be in the $15m/year range.

Probably low. He should be able to get $10m+ guaranteed I would think. He’d be a real nice back of the rotation target for teams like the Mets, Dodgers, etc. who are still signing starters.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't know why he'd sign a deal significantly worse than Gibson's. 

That’s fine.  I’m less concerned about specific numbers than I am curious about the approach.  Would a year plus a team friendly player option work is the point?  The idea is it front loads the contract without the long term and gives an insurance policy from the players perspective.

[Going Underground]

Go get Davies,Bundy and Britton for $12 mm. and we can have a welcome back party.

[interloper]

I think Stripling is the guy I'm hooking my cart to next. Proven decent in the AL East, doesn't cost a pick. Eovaldi feels too icky with the pick considering his up and down performance.

End of the day a 3 ERA is a 3 ERA. 2.92 as a starter last year in 123 IP. 0.9 WHIP. But only 7.3 k.

Edited December 12, 2022 by interloper

[Three Run Homer]

Stripling is a guy who pitched very well in 2021, but whose track record doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.  Kind of like our existing starters.  Signing him for a reasonable contract is better than doing nothing, and I'd rather have him than Eovaldi, but a front-line starter he is not.