Mateo Trade Potential

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think Elias is buying his last few months of player development time before making the decision. He could:

1. Trade now, get very little back.
2. See how the start goes, trade Mateo (or someone else if Mateo is better) for a better return.

Some team will need a SS before July 31. 

I think Mateo has to hit this year or be a be a super sub/pinch runner. We’re really not going to unseat Mateo for Gunnar?   We can sit back all day and hope that Mateo goes 20HR/40SB, but I’d rather make the playoffs. Mateo better hit and hit out of ST. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think he might have been talking about trade value. We have a perfect comp though because Rojas, who's basically the same player, was traded a few weeks ago to the Dodgers. If the Orioles are shopping Mateo I think that's what they can expect to get in return. Maybe a little bit more, since Mateo is younger and a bit cheaper, but definitely not a significant prospect or MLB player. 

Rojas is a similar player but how is a the "perfect comp" when he's a FA in 2024 and Mateo isn't a FA until 2026?    Also, Mateo had a 3.4 RWAR compared to 2.5 for Rojas.   

Is the player the Marlins got from the Dodgers in his FA year, a decent prospect?

Ranked Los Angeles Dodgers #10 prospect in-season in 2022
BA Grade: 50/High

Track Record: Amaya grew up in suburban Los Angeles and is the grandson of former Brooklyn Dodgers prospect Frank Amaya. The Dodgers kept the connection going when they drafted the younger Amaya in the 11th round in 2017 and signed him for an above-slot $247,500. Amaya quickly established himself as the best defensive shortstop in the Dodgers system, but longstanding questions about his bat only increased after he hit .216/.303/.343 at Double-A Tulsa in 2021.

Scouting Report: Amaya is a gifted defensive shortstop with elite instincts for the position. He is always in the right place, secures every ball with his soft, reliable hands and makes every throw with his plus, accurate arm. He's not the rangiest or flashiest defender, but he makes every play and is elite at nuances such as tags and relays. Amaya's bat is further behind. He previously demonstrated elite-strike zone discipline but tried to hit for power in 2021 and started chasing and overswinging. He's an undersized hitter who is best when he drives singles the other way with a short, direct stroke.

The Future: Amaya's defense gives him a chance to stick as a utilityman. He'll try to make the necessary offensive adjustments in 2022.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 50. Power: 40. Speed: 50. Fielding: 60. Arm: 60.

 

So the Marlins got the #10 prospect in a very good system for one year of Miguel Rojas but Jorge Mateo who is younger with 3 years of service time and just had a better overall season than Rojas has every had, can't get back a significant prospect?    Really?

Edited January 26, 2023 by RZNJ

[btdart20]

43 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think Mateo has to hit this year or be a be a super sub/pinch runner. We’re really not going to unseat Mateo for Gunnar?   We can sit back all day and hope that Mateo goes 20HR/40SB, but I’d rather make the playoffs. Mateo better hit and hit out of ST. 

Agreed.  As it stands now, we've heard that they want Gunnar to get some starts at SS.  So, I think Mateo'll start the season as the SS starter for most games.  It won't be 100% as Hyder plays the numbers between Mateo/Urias/Frazier.  And Westburg if he's on the team.   Only Mateo's bat can change that narrative.

He definitely has value at the MLB level for teams that are thin up the middle and have hitters elsewhere.  But for the O's, I think the team is best served with him as a pinch runner/defensive replacement.  

[HakunaSakata]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Rojas is a similar player but how is a the "perfect comp" when he's a FA in 2024 and Mateo isn't a FA until 2026?    Also, Mateo had a 3.4 RWAR compared to 2.5 for Rojas.   

Is the player the Marlins got from the Dodgers in his FA year, a decent prospect?

Ranked Los Angeles Dodgers #10 prospect in-season in 2022
BA Grade: 50/High

Track Record: Amaya grew up in suburban Los Angeles and is the grandson of former Brooklyn Dodgers prospect Frank Amaya. The Dodgers kept the connection going when they drafted the younger Amaya in the 11th round in 2017 and signed him for an above-slot $247,500. Amaya quickly established himself as the best defensive shortstop in the Dodgers system, but longstanding questions about his bat only increased after he hit .216/.303/.343 at Double-A Tulsa in 2021.

Scouting Report: Amaya is a gifted defensive shortstop with elite instincts for the position. He is always in the right place, secures every ball with his soft, reliable hands and makes every throw with his plus, accurate arm. He's not the rangiest or flashiest defender, but he makes every play and is elite at nuances such as tags and relays. Amaya's bat is further behind. He previously demonstrated elite-strike zone discipline but tried to hit for power in 2021 and started chasing and overswinging. He's an undersized hitter who is best when he drives singles the other way with a short, direct stroke.

The Future: Amaya's defense gives him a chance to stick as a utilityman. He'll try to make the necessary offensive adjustments in 2022.

Scouting Grades: Hitting: 50. Power: 40. Speed: 50. Fielding: 60. Arm: 60.

 

So the Marlins got the #10 prospect in a very good system for one year of Miguel Rojas but Jorge Mateo who is younger with 3 years of service time and just had a better overall season than Rojas has every had, can't get back a significant prospect?    Really?

There's no need to be so argumentative. I walked back my statement a bit when I mentioned that he was younger and cheaper (and said they could expect more).  To simply, Amaya is potentially a younger version of Mateo and Rojas is an older version of Mateo. The bottom line is they aren't going to get a significant return in a trade for Mateo. And to answer your question, I'd say Amaya is a marginal prospect. Definitely not a potential difference maker. 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

There's no need to be so argumentative. I walked back my statement a bit when I mentioned that he was younger and cheaper (and said they could expect more).  To simply, Amaya is potentially a younger version of Mateo and Rojas is an older version of Mateo. The bottom line is they aren't going to get a significant return in a trade for Mateo. And to answer your question, I'd say Amaya is a marginal prospect. Definitely not a potential difference maker. 

Sorry.  I forgot I was supposed to agree with everything you say.

Rojas might be similar to Mateo EXCEPT he doesn't have his power (yeah he once hit 11 homers) or his speed (despite stealing 13 bases in once season).    1 year of service versus 3 years of service time.    You consider the Dodgers #10 prospect marginal?    How high do we have to go before we get to non-marginal?

[sportsfan8703]

34 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sorry.  I forgot I was supposed to agree with everything you say.

Rojas might be similar to Mateo EXCEPT he doesn't have his power (yeah he once hit 11 homers) or his speed (despite stealing 13 bases in once season).    1 year of service versus 3 years of service time.    You consider the Dodgers #10 prospect marginal?    How high do we have to go before we get to non-marginal?

I’d rather make the playoffs in 2023 rather than pump up Mateo’s WAR in hopes of getting the Dodgers #5 prospect. 
 

So Mateo is so great that the #1 prospect in baseball can’t push him off SS?  I like Mateo, but we’re trying to make the playoffs and every game counts.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’d rather make the playoffs in 2023 rather than pump up Mateo’s WAR in hopes of getting the Dodgers #5 prospect. 
 

So Mateo is so great that the #1 prospect in baseball can’t push him off SS?  I like Mateo, but we’re trying to make the playoffs and every game counts.

If Mateo pumps up his value, it only creates better options for the Orioles moving forward.

[Three Run Homer]

Mateo has more value at SS to the O's than he would for other teams, because Elias is building his starting rotation around pitch-to-contact guys with good control.  You need outstanding team defense to make that kind of pitcher successful.  I wouldn't have a problem with them trading Mateo, but I won't be surprised if Mateo is still the SS on opening day, with Gunnar at 3B.  

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think Mateo has to hit this year or be a be a super sub/pinch runner. We’re really not going to unseat Mateo for Gunnar?   We can sit back all day and hope that Mateo goes 20HR/40SB, but I’d rather make the playoffs. Mateo better hit and hit out of ST. 

I like Gunnar at 3rd.  I think a better question is are the O's going to unseat Mateo for Ortiz.  Holliday should be ready sometime in late 2024/early 2025.  Why keep Gunnar at SS only to move him to 3rd in a year or two.  If Ortiz continues to hit at AAA and Mateo hits about like he did in 2022, .600ish OPS w/ sub .300 OBP, how do you justify blocking Ortiz at AAA,  I think Mateo has the 1st half of the season to prove he can hit enough not to be a drag on the O's lineup. 

[Pickles]

40 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I like Gunnar at 3rd.  I think a better question is are the O's going to unseat Mateo for Ortiz.  Holliday should be ready sometime in late 2024/early 2025.  Why keep Gunnar at SS only to move him to 3rd in a year or two.  If Ortiz continues to hit at AAA and Mateo hits about like he did in 2022, .600ish OPS w/ sub .300 OBP, how do you justify blocking Ortiz at AAA,  I think Mateo has the 1st half of the season to prove he can hit enough not to be a drag on the O's lineup. 

This is all true.

And inversely, Ortiz has the first half of the season at AAA to hit enough to demand Mateo's job.  It works both ways.

 

[orioles22]

My theory is Gunnar is probably good at short, but elite at third. Ortiz is good at short, but maybe elite at second. Mateo is elite at short. I'd keep him there until Holliday is ready, unless someone makes a great offer in a trade.

[Brooks The Great]

3 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

My theory is Gunnar is probably good at short, but elite at third. Ortiz is good at short, but maybe elite at second. Mateo is elite at short. I'd keep him there until Holliday is ready, unless someone makes a great offer in a trade.

For me, the elite defense and speed isn't enough to make up for how terrible Mateo is with the bat. I think Ortiz is not only a plus defender at short, but would be average to above average as a hitter, making him the better player and helping the Orioles win more games during a season in which the playoffs should be the primary goal of the team.

I think trading Mateo now would be a shrewd sell high by Elias. Mateo could make improvements and increase his value, but he could also tread water and remain one of the worst hitters in baseball, which would hurt his value. 

[Sports Guy]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Sorry.  I forgot I was supposed to agree with everything you say.

Rojas might be similar to Mateo EXCEPT he doesn't have his power (yeah he once hit 11 homers) or his speed (despite stealing 13 bases in once season).    1 year of service versus 3 years of service time.    You consider the Dodgers #10 prospect marginal?    How high do we have to go before we get to non-marginal?

Well, Rojas does the better track record.

I guess it depends on how you define a significant prospect but I doubt we can get a top 100 guy (or someone on the verge of top 100) for Mateo.

I would think a top 15 guy in a good organization and someone in the 25-40 range.

Or he can be a piece in a larger trade.

[HakunaSakata]

15 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Sorry.  I forgot I was supposed to agree with everything you say.

That's not what I was suggesting at all. You came across as angry and condescending when you responded to my comment about Pablo Lopez not being great on the road and also in this thread and I really don't think I said anything to trigger that kind of angst. Maybe we can just hit the reset button and try to have a civil discourse (agree or disagree) as opposed to jumping straight into mortal enemy territory the next time? I'm not here to troll or argue, I just want to talk about the O's. 

[turtlebowl]

I like Mateo but I don't see him ever being a great hitter.  He has had professional hitting coaches working with him for years and he still does not have sound mechanics.  Why would anyone think now that the lightbulb is just going to come on?  I am certain coaches on major league teams see similar things so I seriously doubt any organization is going to think Mateo has all this untapped potential they can get out of him.  

Saying that he does have value because of how well he played defense last season.  Some team may look at his skillset of gold glove caliber defense and speed and think he fills a hole.  The concern is what if he comes out this year and the defense is less than stellar?  Now he went from having some value to basically no value.

Saying all of this if some team offered me a higher end arm from the lower minors I think I would jump on it knowing you have options to fill short now and down the road.