Mateo Trade Potential

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Got to keep Ortiz down long enough to keep him from free agency for another year.

That could be the primary reason but I think it's deeper than that.    The Orioles realize that you are only guaranteed these players for 6 years.   They want them as fully baked as possible before starting that 6 year clock.    They want the best 6 years they can get out of these guys.   Is there nothing left for Westburg (an easier example than Ortiz) to learn in AAA?    He bottomed out last July with poor discipline numbers.   He walked 23 times and struck out 23 times in August but didn't rake.    He was a little more aggressive in September and had a great month.    I think the thinking is that there is still some fine tuning to do and if they have competent ML players here this year, that gives them some time for some more fine tuning.

Ortiz had a great 3 months to finish the season.   As a fan, I would have preferred that he or Westburg be given that 2B job to enter the season but they aren't going to get worse by playing a few more games in AAA.   Heck, they might actually even get better before they start their ML careers.

[Pickles]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His glove is definitely ready. That’s what people are saying and since that is what Mateo is bringing the table, it stands to reason that he can replace him.

Either way, Mateo is definitely not “too important” to trade.

Mateo put up 3.5 WAR last year, and there's nothing to suggest that isn't a pretty accurate expectation for this upcoming season.

Anyone saying Ortiz is definitely going to be able to replace that next year is not speaking truthfully.

I know Ortiz is highly regarding with the glove.  I still don't think he's as good as Mateo, and I doubt he ever is.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

That was kind of my point in bumping this thread. We shouldn’t give away games because we’re trying to let Mateo WAR compile. 

Well, I don’t think we are giving away games with him out there. Kind of the same as Frazier. He will at least provide you good defense and preventing runs is huge.

Frazier is a bad idea for many other reasons.

Mateo, if you have to start him on day 1, isn’t a bad idea in that he is likely to cost you games.  It’s more about whether or not him starting is the best option and I don’t think he is the best option. But not being the best option doesn’t make him a bad option.
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Mateo put up 3.5 WAR last year, and there's nothing to suggest that isn't a pretty accurate expectation for this upcoming season.

Anyone saying Ortiz is definitely going to be able to replace that next year is not speaking truthfully.

I know Ortiz is highly regarding with the glove.  I still don't think he's as good as Mateo, and I doubt he ever is.

Yea and your scouting background is something we should all lean on.

His fWAR was 2.8..fWAR is the clear better WAR for positional talent. Still good though.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well if you read my next post, you would know I didn’t say it was a bad idea.

You keeping hanging onto that small sample size. You are like wildcard but without the likability.

That sample size means nothing. It’s a clear outlier to most, if not all, of his pro career.

Guys have been bad hitters/players for the early part of their career only to come out of nowhere and be good.  Could Mateo do that?  Sure, stranger things have happened and you can never discount the possibility. But to actually hint at that happening, because he hit well for a month or so, is ridiculous.

I would expect ANY professional athlete to look good at times. These are, after all, the best in the world at what they do. But when there is zero evidence of sustainability and the player is much closer to 30 than 20, I think you just chalk him to what he is instead of holding onto a fantasy of him becoming what he isn’t.

What would you know about likability?   (Who's getting personal first, as usual?  LOL)

It's documented that Mateo went to the coaches and they remade him.   He then went about 40 AB's and struck out something like 2-3 times and put up a great July.   He spit on the outside slider.   He wasn't the same old Mateo.    Can he do it for a season?    I'll believe it when I see it but it is possible and it's worth taking a 2-3 month look to see if he can.   In the meantime, you have a GG caliber SS who can steal bases, worst case scenario.

 

[Pickles]

26 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Sorry, but I take the experts and Tony's opinion when he says he's MLB ready with the glove now.  And since the glove is all he's really needing to replace, that make him ready in my book.  No, 120 ABS in AAA isn't much, but it's not like we don't have the rest of his minor league career to judge from.  And we know what we've got with Mateo, so the comparison really isn't that hard.  

Mateo should have won the GG last year, and imo, the platinum glove.  Ortiz, even if he is a fine defender, is not guaranteed to be that good.  In fact, it is highly likely that he isn't.

Again, Mateo was worth 3.5 WAR last year.  There's no guarantee Ortiz could replicate that next year, or even get close.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That could be the primary reason but I think it's deeper than that.    The Orioles realize that you are only guaranteed these players for 6 years.   They want them as fully baked as possible before starting that 6 year clock.    They want the best 6 years they can get out of these guys.   Is there nothing left for Westburg (an easier example than Ortiz) to learn in AAA?    He bottomed out last July with poor discipline numbers.   He walked 23 times and struck out 23 times in August but didn't rake.    He was a little more aggressive in September and had a great month.    I think the thinking is that there is still some fine tuning to do and if they have competent ML players here this year, that gives them some time for some more fine tuning.

Ortiz had a great 3 months to finish the season.   As a fan, I would have preferred that he or Westburg be given that 2B job to enter the season but they aren't going to get worse by playing a few more games in AAA.   Heck, they might actually even get better before they start their ML careers.

But you can't guarantee that.  Matt Wieters' 2008 campaign was one of his 6 best years and he spent it in the minors.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea and your scouting background is something we should all lean on.

His fWAR was 2.8..fWAR is the clear better WAR for positional talent. Still good though.

Hey man, I admit I'm no scouting genius.

How much better off would we be with DeJong manning the position?

[RZNJ]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

But you can't guarantee that.  Matt Wieters' 2008 campaign was one of his 6 best years and he spent it in the minors.

It was his best minor league season.     Austin Hays had a great season in the minors too.   Are you suggesting we wasted his best year too?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

What would you know about likability?   (Who's getting personal first, as usual?  LOL)

It's documented that Mateo went to the coaches and they remade him.   He then went about 40 AB's and struck out something like 2-3 times and put up a great July.   He spit on the outside slider.   He wasn't the same old Mateo.    Can he do it for a season?    I'll believe it when I see it but it is possible and it's worth taking a 2-3 month look to see if he can.   In the meantime, you have a GG caliber SS who can steal bases, worst case scenario.

 

It’s worth taking a look even though he followed that up by playing terribly offensively?  Lol

Whatever man. You keep hanging onto that. I seem to recall you slamming his offense after the season and during this offseason so it just seems like this is a trolling type thing. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Mateo should have won the GG last year, and imo, the platinum glove.  Ortiz, even if he is a fine defender, is not guaranteed to be that good.  In fact, it is highly likely that he isn't.

Again, Mateo was worth 3.5 WAR last year.  There's no guarantee Ortiz could replicate that next year, or even get close.

There is also no guarantee that Mateo can repeat that next year.

His rWAR coming into last season was 0.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Hey man, I admit I'm no scouting genius.

How much better off would we be with DeJong manning the position?

Tough to say. His OAA was excellent in far less games, so perhaps had he played the same amount, he brings the same or more defensive value to the table. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

It was his best minor league season.     Austin Hays had a great season in the minors too.   Are you suggesting we wasted his best year too?

I was citing one example.

I was not stating that it is something that is true in every case.

In Matt's case we have pretty solid evidence that he would have provided more overall value to the ML team if he had been promoted earlier.

Things are not often that clear.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s worth taking a look even though he followed that up by playing terribly offensively?  Lol

Whatever man. You keep hanging onto that. I seem to recall you slamming his offense after the season and during this offseason so it just seems like this is a trolling type thing. 

You seem paranoid.   You think everyone is trolling you.   Man up!   Or is that not possible?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is also no guarantee that Mateo can repeat that next year.

His rWAR coming into last season was 0.

Yea but Pickles doesn’t see a reason for a drop off, so there’s that.