Mateo Trade Potential

[btdart20]

15 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’d rather make the playoffs in 2023 rather than pump up Mateo’s WAR in hopes of getting the Dodgers #5 prospect. 
 

So Mateo is so great that the #1 prospect in baseball can’t push him off SS?  I like Mateo, but we’re trying to make the playoffs and every game counts.

It's more than just Mateo or Gunnar at SS.  It includes Urias/Ortiz/Westburg (Norby?  And 2B) in the long run.  And Frazier in 2023.  3 spots for 5-6 players over the next two years.  

13 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Mateo has more value at SS to the O's than he would for other teams, because Elias is building his starting rotation around pitch-to-contact guys with good control.  You need outstanding team defense to make that kind of pitcher successful.  I wouldn't have a problem with them trading Mateo, but I won't be surprised if Mateo is still the SS on opening day, with Gunnar at 3B.  

1 hour ago, orioles22 said:

My theory is Gunnar is probably good at short, but elite at third. Ortiz is good at short, but maybe elite at second. Mateo is elite at short. I'd keep him there until Holliday is ready, unless someone makes a great offer in a trade.

Mateo's defense (and the trickledown to the other positions) is probably a bigger factor than what we/fans think.

59 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

For me, the elite defense and speed isn't enough to make up for how terrible Mateo is with the bat. I think Ortiz is not only a plus defender at short, but would be average to above average as a hitter, making him the better player and helping the Orioles win more games during a season in which the playoffs should be the primary goal of the team.

I think trading Mateo now would be a shrewd sell high by Elias. Mateo could make improvements and increase his value, but he could also tread water and remain one of the worst hitters in baseball, which would hurt his value. 

Agreed.  At the end of the day, Mateo still has to hit to be what the O's need in the offense.  We don't currently have a lock for top 20 OPS player (Santander checked in at 55, Rutchman would have been top 40 if he qualified).  Much less a few guys that can carry the offense to 4+ runs a game.  We need offense from every spot in the lineup.

In our offense, Mateo's defense and speed make for great ways to lock in leads/steal an extra base (and hopefully a run) late in games.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

That's not what I was suggesting at all. You came across as angry and condescending when you responded to my comment about Pablo Lopez not being great on the road and also in this thread and I really don't think I said anything to trigger that kind of angst. Maybe we can just hit the reset button and try to have a civil discourse (agree or disagree) as opposed to jumping straight into mortal enemy territory the next time? I'm not here to troll or argue, I just want to talk about the O's. 

It's all good.  I'll try to be nicer.

[interloper]

I agree with those saying Mateo is probably too important to the Orioles to trade right away. I think there's a much stronger case he gets dealt at the deadline if Westburg or Ortiz are banging down the door and Gunnar continues to look like an absolute stud. 

Still, they have to be careful to not undermine the defense or offense completely if they're contending. Ortiz is a defensive stud, but I'm not fully convinced he would be an immediate offensive upgrade over Mateo in his rookie year. I'm more confident about Westburg's overall profile as a 2B/3B though, if they want to move Gunnar to SS. 

My real preference is still to trade Urias and mix in Ortiz or Westburg as rotational UTIL guys, gradually increasing their PA. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

Mateo is definitely not “too important to trade”. That’s an absurd thought.  
 

You can debate the bar of Ortiz but not the glove. That’s ready and could replace Mateo’s.

There are 2 reasons you keep Mateo:

1) No one wants him/give up much for him.

2) You want to give Ortiz a little more time and don’t want to move Gunnar to SS because that’s not his spot long term.

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo is definitely not “too important to trade”. That’s an absurd thought.  
 

You can debate the bar of Ortiz but not the glove. That’s ready and could replace Mateo’s.

There are 2 reasons you keep Mateo:

1) No one wants him/give up much for him.

2) You want to give Ortiz a little more time and don’t want to move Gunnar to SS because that’s not his spot long term.

 

3) Buy a little more time to figure out Ortiz/Henderson, while at the same time hoping Mateo gets off to a good start.   If Mateo gets off to a good start and looks like  he might be an improved version, they have the option of moving him for value or consider keeping him at SS, using Henderson at 3B, and possibly having Ortiz's future home be 2B instead of SS.   Worst-case, Mateo gets off to a bad start and you still have the option of Henderson or Ortiz at SS.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

3) Buy a little more time to figure out Ortiz/Henderson, while at the same time hoping Mateo gets off to a good start.   If Mateo gets off to a good start and looks like  he might be an improved version, they have the option of moving him for value or consider keeping him at SS, using Henderson at 3B, and possibly having Ortiz's future home be 2B instead of SS.   Worst-case, Mateo gets off to a bad start and you still have the option of Henderson or Ortiz at SS.

Why would they need more time?

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would they need more time?

120 ABs in AAA is nothing.

[LTO's]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would they need more time?

25 games at AAA. 

[Three Run Homer]

The O's were perennial winners when Mark Belanger was their shortstop.   You absolutely can win with an outstanding defensive SS who contributes little with the bat.  And the O's figure are in position to get good offense from other "defensive" positions such as catcher, CF, 2B and 3B going forward.  

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would they need more time?

It's explained in the post.  

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

120 ABs in AAA is nothing.

So?  We know the glove will play, and since that's pretty much all he'd be replacing, Mateos glove, then more time in AAA really isn't going to make a difference.  Now if you want to factor in team control and stuff like that, then that adds to the equation.  But to suggest that Ortiz needs more time in AAA to be able to adequately replace Mateo isn't really true.  Sure, his bat could likely use more time adjusting to AAA and then the majors, but since he's replacing a terrible bat in the lineup I'm not sure it's as large of a deal as folks are making it out to be.  It's not like we are bringing up a guy to replace Santander, or Mullins or Adley.  It's all glove, no bat Mateo and Ortiz seems very capable of doing so now, even with only 25 AAA games under his belt.  That's largely because of how bad Mateo is with the bat though. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

120 ABs in AAA is nothing.

 

6 minutes ago, LTO's said:

25 games at AAA. 

So every time they advance a level they throw out all the old data?

It's weird, as much as folks here talk up the front office it also seems like they sometimes underestimate them.  They should have a lot of data to draw from.

[forphase1]

Just now, Three Run Homer said:

The O's were perennial winners when Mark Belanger was their shortstop.   You absolutely can win with an outstanding defensive SS who contributes little with the bat.  And the O's figure are in position to get good offense from other "defensive" positions such as catcher, CF, 2B and 3B going forward.  

Yes, IF you have sufficient runs being scored by the rest of the team.  Unfortunately last year we had too many black holes in the lineup, and to this point we haven't done much to fix that this year.  Thus the additional black hole of Mateo is more evident.  Sure, a good offensive team can carry a all glove, no bat guy or two in the lineup, but we aren't currently constructed that way.  

[Pickles]

Just now, forphase1 said:

So?  We know the glove will play, and since that's pretty much all he'd be replacing, Mateos glove, then more time in AAA really isn't going to make a difference.  Now if you want to factor in team control and stuff like that, then that adds to the equation.  But to suggest that Ortiz needs more time in AAA to be able to adequately replace Mateo isn't really true.  Sure, his bat could likely use more time adjusting to AAA and then the majors, but since he's replacing a terrible bat in the lineup I'm not sure it's as large of a deal as folks are making it out to be.  It's not like we are bringing up a guy to replace Santander, or Mullins or Adley.  It's all glove, no bat Mateo and Ortiz seems very capable of doing so now, even with only 25 AAA games under his belt.  That's largely because of how bad Mateo is with the bat though. 

No, acting like Ortiz is DEFINITELY ready is the only thing that is untrue.  This is a discussion that could be had but it isn't had in good faith.  There are posters who KNOW he's ready, when of course, you can't possibly know that.  But judging by historical and current norms, 120 ABS in AAA is nothing.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

It's explained in the post.  

That would require me to read your entire post and we both know I can only handle maybe two sentences at a time when it comes to your posts.