Mateo Trade Potential

[sportsfan8703]

23 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Sanity check.....it's amazing to me how many OH'ers want to send Mateo packing, to any taker, just to get Henderson to play shortstop, or Ortiz for that matter.

And many believe that a shortstop that you are not high on should command decent quality in return.  The Dodgers may need to make a move, and they have MANY options, so giving up a prime arm for a guy that many on here feel will never hit just won't happen.  Elias doesn't have the leverage to hold anyone hostage in a Mateo trade.  No one is that desperate.

In fact, it just feels like many folks on here are MORE desperate to move him, and that doesn't exude a feeling of leverage either.

At some point, I can see Mateo being moved, but his value to the Orioles is higher than it is to anyone else at the moment.  When he is moved, many of you will be unhappy with the return.  That always seems to be the case.....because, we tend to over-value our guys.  

But for now, he's the best defensive shortstop on the team, and that means a lot for our defense, and probably to our pitchers.  Gunnar will get his reps at shortstop when Mateo is rested, maybe once or twice a week, and the rest of his time at third base.  This is our reality folks....I don't think Elias trades Mateo unless someone calls him and makes a lights out offer, and the probability of that - in my opinion - is very low right now.  So, for now, he's our shortstop, no a utility guy, and like some sensible people have said on here, when Mateo is in the lineup, he'll be at shortstop, and he should be.

Sanity check... we're loaded at SS.  Hard to believe, I know.  We are so loaded that we have this guy named Jackson Holliday too.  He was just the #1 pick in the draft.  

[CaptDbog]

20 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Sanity check.....it's amazing to me how many OH'ers want to send Mateo packing, to any taker, just to get Henderson to play shortstop, or Ortiz for that matter.

And many believe that a shortstop that you are not high on should command decent quality in return.  The Dodgers may need to make a move, and they have MANY options, so giving up a prime arm for a guy that many on here feel will never hit just won't happen.  Elias doesn't have the leverage to hold anyone hostage in a Mateo trade.  No one is that desperate.

In fact, it just feels like many folks on here are MORE desperate to move him, and that doesn't exude a feeling of leverage either.

At some point, I can see Mateo being moved, but his value to the Orioles is higher than it is to anyone else at the moment.  When he is moved, many of you will be unhappy with the return.  That always seems to be the case.....because, we tend to over-value our guys.  

But for now, he's the best defensive shortstop on the team, and that means a lot for our defense, and probably to our pitchers.  Gunnar will get his reps at shortstop when Mateo is rested, maybe once or twice a week, and the rest of his time at third base.  This is our reality folks....I don't think Elias trades Mateo unless someone calls him and makes a lights out offer, and the probability of that - in my opinion - is very low right now.  So, for now, he's our shortstop, no a utility guy, and like some sensible people have said on here, when Mateo is in the lineup, he'll be at shortstop, and he should be.

The team can carry only so many infielders (Really wish that Adam Frazier didn't sign here).  I think a lot of the board members see this and believe Mateo is the weakest link.  I agree with their points because of the prospects in the wings ready to contribute.  Henderson and Ortiz both are superior to Mateo, in my opinion.  Also, do we know for sure that Mateo is the best defensive options at SS?  I think Henderson and Ortiz both can provide above average defense while providing a higher offensive output.  

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Sanity check.....it's amazing to me how many OH'ers want to send Mateo packing, to any taker, just to get Henderson to play shortstop, or Ortiz for that matter.

And many believe that a shortstop that you are not high on should command decent quality in return.  The Dodgers may need to make a move, and they have MANY options, so giving up a prime arm for a guy that many on here feel will never hit just won't happen.  Elias doesn't have the leverage to hold anyone hostage in a Mateo trade.  No one is that desperate.

In fact, it just feels like many folks on here are MORE desperate to move him, and that doesn't exude a feeling of leverage either.

At some point, I can see Mateo being moved, but his value to the Orioles is higher than it is to anyone else at the moment.  When he is moved, many of you will be unhappy with the return.  That always seems to be the case.....because, we tend to over-value our guys.  

But for now, he's the best defensive shortstop on the team, and that means a lot for our defense, and probably to our pitchers.  Gunnar will get his reps at shortstop when Mateo is rested, maybe once or twice a week, and the rest of his time at third base.  This is our reality folks....I don't think Elias trades Mateo unless someone calls him and makes a lights out offer, and the probability of that - in my opinion - is very low right now.  So, for now, he's our shortstop, no a utility guy, and like some sensible people have said on here, when Mateo is in the lineup, he'll be at shortstop, and he should be.

We have at least 2 viable candidates to replace him at SS right now..for less money.

He’s not more valuable to us than any other team. That’s such a worn out cliche.

[maybenxtyr]

13 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Correct.

His presence on the team is affecting the #1 prospect in baseball having a full time position, but no other team would have a use for him according to some.

I'm in no hurry to see him go. I just don't believe they would get 2 top 10 guys as someone suggested. His value in a trade will be roughly the same as it was all winter. I'm kinda hoping he goes off this season because the glove and speed are amazing.

[sevastras]

I like Mateo and hope something clicks for him on offense this year. I just want Ortiz and Westburg playing over Mateo/Frazier/Ruiz with the latter maybe being the utility guy. Ortiz has been described as being a wizard defensively, I wouldn’t expect much if any drop off from Mateo that way and I suspect he will turn out to be the better hitter. The elite speed does nothing if you get on base barely over two out of every 10 tries. 

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm in no hurry to see him go. I just don't believe they would get 2 top 10 guys as someone suggested. His value in a trade will be roughly the same as it was all winter. I'm kinda hoping he goes off this season because the glove and speed are amazing.

I didn't see 2 top 10 guys anywhere, but wouldn't doubt someone posted that. I do think one of their pitching prospects ranked in the 70's is a fair deal though.

[CaptDbog]

8 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I like Mateo and hope something clicks for him on offense this year. I just want Ortiz and Westburg playing over Mateo/Frazier/Ruiz with the latter maybe being the utility guy. Ortiz has been described as being a wizard defensively, I wouldn’t expect much if any drop off from Mateo that way and I suspect he will turn out to be the better hitter. The elite speed does nothing if you get on base barely over two out of every 10 tries. 

Mateo's offensive ceiling is limited due to the lack of walks, consistent contact, and high strikeout rate.  I haven't checked statcast but I wonder if his underlining stats support a potential breakout season.   

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

But for now, he's the best defensive shortstop on the team, and that means a lot for our defense, and probably to our pitchers.  Gunnar will get his reps at shortstop when Mateo is rested, maybe once or twice a week, and the rest of his time at third base.  This is our reality folks....I don't think Elias trades Mateo unless someone calls him and makes a lights out offer, and the probability of that - in my opinion - is very low right now.  So, for now, he's our shortstop, no a utility guy, and like some sensible people have said on here, when Mateo is in the lineup, he'll be at shortstop, and he should be.

And where does Urias play? If Mateo is not traded, Urias should be. As long as we have Frazier, one of these guys is getting squeezed. If we believe they are full time MLB level players, they should have more value to another team than they do to us. I agree it is hard in reality for trades to come together, which is why they are relatively rare, and you are probably right that we are overrating these guys. We are probably not getting a top pitching prospect without including substantially more. Still, can we agree this is something Elias should be actively exploring? 

 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

Mateo had a meaningfully higher fWAR and bWAR and a higher wRC+/OPS/OPS+. He's also much younger. I think the Dodgers would very much like to have Mateo over Rojas but could be looking to hold on to pieces for a deadline move. 

Yes Mateo's younger and yes he'd be a small upgrade, but the Dodgers have two younger players, in Lux and Vargas who project to be considerably better long term middle infield options than Mateo. If they hadn't traded for Rojas earlier then maybe things would be different, but unless they can make a move for a better player I think they're probably just going to go with the hand they've been dealt until the trade deadline (like you suggested).

For what it's worth, I just skimmed the SS depth charts for the other MLB teams and the only name that jumped out to me as a possible difference make who might be available is Baez, but I can't imagine the Dodgers taking on that contract. 

[HakunaSakata]

25 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I like Mateo and hope something clicks for him on offense this year. I just want Ortiz and Westburg playing over Mateo/Frazier/Ruiz with the latter maybe being the utility guy. Ortiz has been described as being a wizard defensively, I wouldn’t expect much if any drop off from Mateo that way and I suspect he will turn out to be the better hitter. The elite speed does nothing if you get on base barely over two out of every 10 tries. 

This is exactly how I feel. Ortiz's hitting will more than make up for any drop off defensive. And  if the team's primary configuration turns out to be Urias at 3B and Henderson at SS. I guess Henderson at SS is a bit of a wildcard, because we don't really have a big enough MLB sample size, but I'm more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until he proves he can't handle it. 

[DirtyBird]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Yes Mateo's younger and yes he'd be a small upgrade, but the Dodgers have two younger players, in Lux and Vargas who project to be considerably better long term middle infield options than Mateo.

If Vargas is a middle infielder, and a better option than Mateo, why did he play so little middle infield in the minors?

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

If Vargas is a middle infielder, and a better option than Mateo, why did he play so little middle infield in the minors?

I mean the Dodgers, one of the best run organizations in baseball, felt confident enough to make him their starting 2B this season so that's enough of an endorsement for me. It also seems a bit outrageous to suggest that a 23 year old top 40 prospect doesn't have more long term value potential than a 27 year old career .225 hitter. I don't think many teams (including the Dodgers) would view Mateo as anything more than a band-aid solution at SS. 

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Yes Mateo's younger and yes he'd be a small upgrade, but the Dodgers have two younger players, in Lux and Vargas who project to be considerably better long term middle infield options than Mateo. If they hadn't traded for Rojas earlier then maybe things would be different, but unless they can make a move for a better player I think they're probably just going to go with the hand they've been dealt until the trade deadline (like you suggested).

For what it's worth, I just skimmed the SS depth charts for the other MLB teams and the only name that jumped out to me as a possible difference make who might be available is Baez, but I can't imagine the Dodgers taking on that contract. 

Agreed that a trade is highly unlikely. Trades are extremely difficult to pull off in general but especially in this case. Only SG thinks that they are really easy and anyone not doing them is stupid. However, I disagree that Lux and Vargas project to be considerably better long term middle infield options. For one, Vargas is not a middle infielder. In fact, it's pretty likely that he's not an infielder at all and will be a 1B/COF big leaguer. Lux I would agree with but ACL injuries can be pretty nasty. He's obviously going to miss this entire season and will most likely not be fully healthy for the start of the next season as well. That's a long wait. I think Mateo is the best and most attainable SS option they can acquire but they might not be particularly motivated to give up good prospects. It's hard to get teams to do that. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

I like Mateo, but he's expendable.  

I think that's a weird headspace for some people, the idea that some of our players can be expendable due to the fact that there's a stacked system with a lot of other possibilities waiting to come up.  

I fully expect Mateo to be the OD SS starter but after the first month or two his lack of hitting ability will send him to the bench or packing.  

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sanity check... we're loaded at SS.  Hard to believe, I know.  We are so loaded that we have this guy named Jackson Holliday too.  He was just the #1 pick in the draft.  

I completely understand that, but it doesn't make Mateo any more valuable in a trade to another team as many would make him out to be.  It just means we have a lot of shortstops.  

Do you believe that, because we have so many shortstops, that somehow Mateo's value has increased?  Sometimes, when a team has a roster crunch at a certain position, you almost have to give some guys away.  This may be one of them eventually.