Mateo Trade Potential

[DirtyBird]

11 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

I would trade Mateo for a bag of balls if people stopped over valuing him

You need a bag of balls

[forphase1]

I hope the Dodgers give us a decent deal, and that we take it without hesitation.  Mateo is way overvalued around here IMO, and the bat makes him such a liability that I'd be glad to get some decent value for him, and open that spot up to Ortiz if possible.  I know everyone wants to point to his defensive awards and all the WAR that he accumulated defensively, but for me the advanced defensive statistics are still a bit questionable as far as accuracy goes, and they seem to have a great deal of variance in them year to year.  Point being, I think that Mateo could be close to equal what he was last year with the glove, but it not be reflected the same way in the numbers that everyone likes to point to with him to show how great of a player and how valuable he is.  I'd trade him now, if we could, as a sort of striking while the iron is hot, as I feel his WAR and defensive stats are likely to come back to earth a bit, and I don't think his bat is going to improve to offset the downturn in the defense from the numbers side.  His value may never be higher than it is now.

All that said, I DO think the rule changes will make him even more dangerous and potentially valuable on the base paths, but of course he has to get on base first for it to matter.  I tend to think his steals will decrease as if the bat doesn't come alive he'll get fewer and fewer chances to play, which means fewer times on base.  

I really loved the 6-8 week stretch where he was on fire.  I thought maybe he turned the corner, flipped the switch, whatever you want to say, and that he could be someone we build around for the next handful of years.  But then his at bats went back to being unbearable and just a black hole in the lineup.   As someone put it earlier in the thread, some look at that stretch as potential, and look at what he could become, while others see it as an freak event, an anomaly, and believe that was peak Mateo with the bat, and we will likely never see him close to that again.  I tend to fall into the 2nd group I think.  Would love to be proven wrong though.  

[DirtyBird]

51 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Mateo is way overvalued around here IMO, and the bat makes him such a liability that I'd be glad to get some decent value for him, and open that spot up to Ortiz if possible. 

This is good stuff. Mateo, who got 70% of his career PA's last season, is overvalued around here, but we need to open up the spot for Ortiz, who we know for sure isn't overvalued.

[PsychoBird68]

5 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

This is good stuff. Mateo, who got 70% of his career PA's last season, is overvalued around here, but we need to open up the spot for Ortiz, who we know for sure isn't overvalued.

Seems to me some people around here are overvaluing Ortiz and I believe the evaluators, coaches and Elias would have called up Ortiz and Westburg during the wildcard race last year if they thought they were close to being ready and they sure wouldn't have sign Frazier....I also believe Mateo could be a lot more valuable than we could get out of him in a potential trade so I would rather give him another year of atbats to see if he can breakout unless someone wants to overpay      

[wildcard]

52 minutes ago, PsychoBird68 said:

Seems to me some people around here are overvaluing Ortiz and I believe the evaluators, coaches and Elias would have called up Ortiz and Westburg during the wildcard race last year if they thought they were close to being ready and they sure wouldn't have sign Frazier....I also believe Mateo could be a lot more valuable than we could get out of him in a potential trade so I would rather give him another year of atbats to see if he can breakout unless someone wants to overpay      

I think Westburg and Ortiz are part of the long term O's plan.  As such Elias wants as close to  7 years of service time for both of them as he can get.  They will not be in the majors until late April.    Mateo, Urias and Frazier get the chance to show that they deserve to be with the O's early in the season.   Frazier is likely gone one way or another by August 1st.  Mateo and Urias are cheap so if they perform well they stay but  are more vulnerable to trade after late April.

Elias has no problem with stacking talent in AAA that is ready for the majors during this season.  Westburg and Ortiz are 24 years old.  Their are good depth in case of injuries or non performance.

All five players are good enough defensively to play a role with the O's but they have to show they can also hit.

[Just Regular]

Activating psychobabble mode, here's something I think might win Jorge Mateo's buy-in to a bench role and terrorizing opponents on the basepaths when he piggybacks on some Terrin Vavra/Adam Frazier-supplied OBP.

Trade Jordan Westburg or Joey Ortiz to the Dodgers instead.

If we're trading Bats for Arms broadly balancing the roster for the Adley teams, why not try for a bigger value transaction.

Old friend Paul DeJong is one of the other temp fill-in names I've heard bantered about as Friedman grapples with the Lux injury.

[sportsfan8703]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think there’s any doubt they’ll go get a SS.   It’s just a matter of who.  Odds that it’s Mateo are probably less than 10%, but he’s a plausible candidate.  

Iglesias is the only FA option. Mateo just makes sense. It doesn’t mean that it will happen. I’d say it’s more that 10%. 
 

The board also underrates two things it seems… One, that Joey Ortiz is “cooked” and ready to jump in at SS. Two, the elephant in the room… Gunnar Henderson can play SS. 
 

The prospect outlets have differing lists for the Dodgers players, but I’m thinking if Elias wants Stone and Pepiot, then he will get them. Those are two AAA/MLB SP that are 24/25 years old. Their innings just add to our IP math. 
 

This is the type of move that pushes us into the playoffs. 

[LTO's]

12 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

They're an archaic way of measuring a player's worth in this day and age.

Mateo had a meaningfully higher fWAR and bWAR and a higher wRC+/OPS/OPS+. He's also much younger. I think the Dodgers would very much like to have Mateo over Rojas but could be looking to hold on to pieces for a deadline move. 

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, owknows said:

I would trade Mateo for a bag of balls if people stopped talking about him.

I would trade Mateo for a bag of balls if the balls were made out of gold.

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Mateo had a meaningfully higher fWAR and bWAR and a higher wRC+/OPS/OPS+. He's also much younger. I think the Dodgers would very much like to have Mateo over Rojas but could be looking to hold on to pieces for a deadline move. 

I’d say Rojas is more of a known quantity.  He’s been a decent player for a number of years.  Mateo has more upside, but possibly more downside, too.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

 

Old friend Paul DeJong is one of the other temp fill-in names I've heard bantered about as Friedman grapples with the Lux injury.

That's a great sign they are getting desperate. Jorge could be a nice upgrade. However, to put it in perspective, Trade Simulator gives Mateo 3.9 vs Rojas 4.5.

Gonsolin 45.2, Miller 37.3, Stone 22.2, Pepiot 11.1.

Joey Ortiz 18.7, Westburg 17.4.

[Sanity Check]

Sanity check.....it's amazing to me how many OH'ers want to send Mateo packing, to any taker, just to get Henderson to play shortstop, or Ortiz for that matter.

And many believe that a shortstop that you are not high on should command decent quality in return.  The Dodgers may need to make a move, and they have MANY options, so giving up a prime arm for a guy that many on here feel will never hit just won't happen.  Elias doesn't have the leverage to hold anyone hostage in a Mateo trade.  No one is that desperate.

In fact, it just feels like many folks on here are MORE desperate to move him, and that doesn't exude a feeling of leverage either.

At some point, I can see Mateo being moved, but his value to the Orioles is higher than it is to anyone else at the moment.  When he is moved, many of you will be unhappy with the return.  That always seems to be the case.....because, we tend to over-value our guys.  

But for now, he's the best defensive shortstop on the team, and that means a lot for our defense, and probably to our pitchers.  Gunnar will get his reps at shortstop when Mateo is rested, maybe once or twice a week, and the rest of his time at third base.  This is our reality folks....I don't think Elias trades Mateo unless someone calls him and makes a lights out offer, and the probability of that - in my opinion - is very low right now.  So, for now, he's our shortstop, no a utility guy, and like some sensible people have said on here, when Mateo is in the lineup, he'll be at shortstop, and he should be.

[Es4M11]

Who truly knows what Elias is thinking on this matter, but I'm not sure that trading Mateo is high on his list of priorities at this point in time. Even for a good deal. I think Mateo is going to be given every opportunity to show improvement at the plate in then first couple of months in the season. A deadline deal involving Mateo is far more likely if you ask me. Presently Mateo's value is all wrapped up in his glove and base running, and I'd argue that similar value in trade could be acquired now or at the deadline based on those traits. But if given the chance to succeed at the plate, Mateo could potentially increase his value to the team as an every day player or a better trade chip, once the guys at AAA are ready.

[jabba72]

7 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Sanity check.....it's amazing to me how many OH'ers want to send Mateo packing, to any taker, just to get Henderson to play shortstop, or Ortiz for that matter.

And many believe that a shortstop that you are not high on should command decent quality in return.  The Dodgers may need to make a move, and they have MANY options, so giving up a prime arm for a guy that many on here feel will never hit just won't happen.  Elias doesn't have the leverage to hold anyone hostage in a Mateo trade.  No one is that desperate.

In fact, it just feels like many folks on here are MORE desperate to move him, and that doesn't exude a feeling of leverage either.

At some point, I can see Mateo being moved, but his value to the Orioles is higher than it is to anyone else at the moment.  When he is moved, many of you will be unhappy with the return.  That always seems to be the case.....because, we tend to over-value our guys.  

But for now, he's the best defensive shortstop on the team, and that means a lot for our defense, and probably to our pitchers.  Gunnar will get his reps at shortstop when Mateo is rested, maybe once or twice a week, and the rest of his time at third base.  This is our reality folks....I don't think Elias trades Mateo unless someone calls him and makes a lights out offer, and the probability of that - in my opinion - is very low right now.  So, for now, he's our shortstop, no a utility guy, and like some sensible people have said on here, when Mateo is in the lineup, he'll be at shortstop, and he should be.

 Im not clamoring to move Mateo just to free up playing time. Just in this scenario it just matches up pretty well to the O's needs, to the point that Elias could get a decent return. If it were another team with no pitching depth that needed a SS, I wouldnt be nearly as interested.  

[Ripken]

These are the (non 1B) IFs who are in Baltimore or close to coming up:

Henderson, Mateo, Urias, Frazier, Vavra, Ortiz, Westburg, Norby.  To say nothing of Holliday, Mayo and others behind them.

So, yeah, I really like the idea of trading one of those guys to LA, for the right return obviously.