With the MLB additions are we a much better team than 2022?

[Roll Tide]

Just now, Number5 said:

Perhaps Elias believes that the unbelievably low .268 BABIP is unlikely to reoccur.  My issue with the Frazier signing isn't Frazier's production or the $8 million.  And certainly had nothing whatsoever to do with Odor - Frazier is an improvement over Odor any way you want to look at it.  My question was and still is did we really need to sign a second baseman?  It appeared to me that we were pretty well set there.

He’s better ….I don’t think it’s by a very big margin if you are judging on who is is now.

Id agree, I’m guessing one of Urias and Mateo have to be on their way out and they don’t want til start any of the next wave here this year. And must be thoroughly convinced that Vavra is a dud.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Frazier has cratered over the last 1.5 years and there isn't really anything in the underlying metrics suggests a big bounceback.

He is a marginal upgrade over Odor due to his defense, but that's about it.

Just going off 2022 stats, Frazier has a 1.3 bWAR advantage.  and a 0.7 fWAR advantage.  That's at least marginal without any expectation adjustments unless you're expecting Frazier to get worse and Odor to get better (or a significantly less decline rate).

In my mind, Frazier is a definite upgrade.  I think Frazier's value-add goes beyond stats 'regression' and statcast expectations.  And more about line-up contruction and fit.  Adding 0.050-.070 OBP and nearly halving the K% at the bottom of the lineup does multiple things:  more baserunners, less outs, more pitches seen, more baserunners moving on contact... Good things happen when you put the ball in play. 

[LookinUp]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That would assume ... health stays lucky (again, this continues to be overlooked about 2022 imo)

If I asked you who the two best pitchers were in this org on opening day last year, you'd have almost certainly said Means and Rodriguez. We got a total of 8 IP from them, but you still say we had a lucky health year. Guaranteed Elias was hoping for 200-250 innings from those two.

Oh, and our best player missed the first 6 weeks (or whatever) of the season.

It didn't add up to catastrophic, but we took a substantial hit from injuries last year.

[LookinUp]

Re: the poll...

1. I don't like the question. I answered yes, but the considerable improvement is really from internal guys. The FAs, so far, are small but real upgrades, IMO. (and I don't like the Frazier move)

2. Our OD roster is substantially more talented than our OD roster last year and somewhat more talented than the EOY roster.

3. More talent /= more wins or better performance (necessarily). Performance isn't linear.

4. Our talent pipeline is essentially untouched.

5. The offseason isn't over. Add a FA P or make a trade for a P and it looks better.

6. If we don't do #5, I'll say this offseason is a failure. It's really a make or break move to me. We need a top P and have assets to get one.

[FlaO'sFan]

I didn't bother reading every post, but I am resigned to accepting that nothing big might change until the team is sold. I am fine with that as long as it doesn't take too long and the new owners are not as 'frugal' as the old ones.

As to the original question, I think we are slightly better, but even with that I don't think we are even 50% to make the playoffs.

[Number5]

I'm not sure what's being asked in this poll.  Are the 3 players signed better than the 3 players they replaced?  Well, yes, they are.  Are those 3 players likely to carry us to the promised land?  Well, no, they aren't.  Did we spend too much money on those 3 players?  No, we didn't.  Seems pretty much market rates or better.  Is the team better than opening day last year?  Well, yes, it looks like they are to me.  Is this improvement primarily because of these 3 players?  Well, no it isn't.  It's more about the progress of our young players - most notably Adley, Gunnar, and Grayson.  Will they be "considerably" better?  Well, probably not.  Hard to frame it that way.  They've got a shot at being "considerably" better, but we can't say that it's highly likely.  Really kind of a vague poll.  I guess, given the vagueness, I guess  the vague option of "about the same" will have to do.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Dude ….he was a 662 OPS last year. Expecting him to be more than he was over the last 2 years is being overly optimistic. The approach of adding guys that your hoping to catch lightning in a bottle is stupid.

He actually was worse than what you cite last season which as I said was a down season in a new league and was a .612 OPS not .662 .  However, his 7 year big league season average OPS  is . 728 and in 2021 with Pitt before trade his OPS was .836 in 428 ABs.  
He is 31 … not 36…

Not lightning.. just his norm would be a substantial upgrade from Odor and defensively he is as well. 

[tntoriole]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Dude ….he was a 662 OPS last year. Expecting him to be more than he was over the last 2 years is being overly optimistic. The approach of adding guys that your hoping to catch lightning in a bottle is stupid.

2021 he was not just an OK player .. he had 176 hits in 577 ABs and a .305/.368/.411 slash line.  That is 2 years ago .. so yeah if he is anything like that then I am happy. 

[Too Tall]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

I'm not sure what's being asked in this poll.  Are the 3 players signed better than the 3 players they replaced?  Well, yes, they are.  Are those 3 players likely to carry us to the promised land?  Well, no, they aren't.  Did we spend too much money on those 3 players?  No, we didn't.  Seems pretty much market rates or better.  Is the team better than opening day last year?  Well, yes, it looks like they are to me.  Is this improvement primarily because of these 3 players?  Well, no it isn't.  It's more about the progress of our young players - most notably Adley, Gunnar, and Grayson.  Will they be "considerably" better?  Well, probably not.  Hard to frame it that way.  They've got a shot at being "considerably" better, but we can't say that it's highly likely.  Really kind of a vague poll.  I guess, given the vagueness, I guess  the vague option of "about the same" will have to do.

With appreciation for No. 5's work above, DITTO!!!!!!!

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

He actually was worse than what you cite last season which as I said was a down season in a new league and was a .612 OPS not .662 .  However, his 7 year big league season average OPS  is . 728 and in 2021 with Pitt before trade his OPS was .836 in 428 ABs.  
He is 31 … not 36…

Not lightning.. just his norm would be a substantial upgrade from Odor and defensively he is as well. 

Yep …my mistake it was .643 in 2021. Expecting anymore than somewhere near the two is lunacy. His 7 year number is irrelevant 

[Roll Tide]

30 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

2021 he was not just an OK player .. he had 176 hits in 577 ABs and a .305/.368/.411 slash line.  That is 2 years ago .. so yeah if he is anything like that then I am happy. 

Wrong …. It was .232/.294/.349

He’s never batted .305….. me thinks you are looking at the wrong McCann.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanja02.shtml

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Wrong …. It was .232/.294/.349

He’s never batted .305….. me thinks you are looking at the wrong McCann.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanja02.shtml

He was talking about Frazier.  As were you in the post he quoted.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Number5

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Yep …my mistake it was .643 in 2021. Expecting anymore than somewhere near the two is lunacy. His 7 year number is irrelevant 

We seem to be mixing up two players.   .728 is Frazier.  You are talking about McCann.  

[tntoriole]

26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Yep …my mistake it was .643 in 2021. Expecting anymore than somewhere near the two is lunacy. His 7 year number is irrelevant 

Talking about Frazier 

[tntoriole]

23 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Wrong …. It was .232/.294/.349

He’s never batted .305….. me thinks you are looking at the wrong McCann.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanja02.shtml

Talking about Frazier