ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle thinks the O’s currently are a 72-win team

[Frobby]

24. Baltimore Orioles

Projected wins: 72.4
Playoff odds: 6%
Title odds: 0% (no change)
Aggression rank: 19
Improvement rank: 8

While I was hoping for a splashy Orioles winter -- Correa! Jacob deGrom! -- I also understood that the team couldn't operate as if last year's playoff contention was a real thing. Well, of course it was real, and it was spectacular. But the Orioles weren't as good as their record. They were a team still in rebuild mode that had an emergent bullpen and saw the ascension of some key young players, including new franchise face Adley Rutschman. Allowing the new young core to coalesce is probably smart, even as Baltimore tries to be opportunistic in the star market going forward. But a real splash would have been fun.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed

Interesting that Doolittle ranks the O’s 8th in improvement.   As he explains: “The ‘improvement’ rank considers the net impact a team's offseason machinations have had on its 2023 outlook. This is a rating on the moves alone, not on the team's overall chances to be better, an assessment that should also consider aging patterns, improvement of young players, regression factors, etc.”

 

[ChosenOne21]

We might have played over our heads a bit, but 11 games? Our pythagorean had us at 80-82. You'd pretty much have to believe everyone who improved on our team was a mirage to the point where not even full seasons of Adley, Gunnar and Grayson can make up for it. This is silly analysis.

[Since1984]

72 wins would be my low end estimate, with some bad luck in injuries and net team regression (overall).

[maybenxtyr]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

24. Baltimore Orioles

Projected wins: 72.4
Playoff odds: 6%
Title odds: 0% (no change)
Aggression rank: 19
Improvement rank: 8

While I was hoping for a splashy Orioles winter -- Correa! Jacob deGrom! -- I also understood that the team couldn't operate as if last year's playoff contention was a real thing. Well, of course it was real, and it was spectacular. But the Orioles weren't as good as their record. They were a team still in rebuild mode that had an emergent bullpen and saw the ascension of some key young players, including new franchise face Adley Rutschman. Allowing the new young core to coalesce is probably smart, even as Baltimore tries to be opportunistic in the star market going forward. But a real splash would have been fun.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed

Interesting that Doolittle ranks the O’s 8th in improvement.   As he explains: “The ‘improvement’ rank considers the net impact a team's offseason machinations have had on its 2023 outlook. This is a rating on the moves alone, not on the team's overall chances to be better, an assessment that should also consider aging patterns, improvement of young players, regression factors, etc.”

 

I think 72 wins is definitely the low end of the projections. I would not be surprised if they did win 72, just as I wouldn't be surprised if they won 82. 

 

Most of their improvements will be tied to the young guys. The downside is, most of the teams they are chasing has made upgrades this off season.

[ChosenOne21]

I guess we got pretty lucky on the injury front last year and we should see some regression there, too. Still, our position player depth is crazy good. We just need the rotation to hold up. Fingers crossed.

I still don't see being 11 games worse unless pretty much everything goes wrong

[waroriole]

I’m not surprised this guy made that prediction. Bradford Dolittle is the worst baseball name I’ve ever heard. 

[Oriole1940]

Nothing wrong with Doolittle that going out and getting an  honest job would not cure.  

[Frobby]

Just now, maybenxtyr said:

I think 72 wins is definitely the low end of the projections. I would not be surprised if they did win 72, just as I wouldn't be surprised if they won 82. 

 

Most of their improvements will be tied to the young guys. The downside is, most of the teams they are chasing has made upgrades this off season.

Well, if this is to be believed, have they? We rank 8th in improvement, behind:

1. Rangers

2. Mets

3. Cubs

4. Yankees

5. Phillies

6. Giants

7. Angels

So that makes the Orioles the 4th most improved team in the AL, by this analysis   of the moves made this winter.   So for the O’s to be falling to 72 wins, Doolittle clearly thinks a lot of our players (probably mostly pitchers) overperformed last year and will regress in 2023.   

 

[tntoriole]

13 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I think 72 wins is definitely the low end of the projections. I would not be surprised if they did win 72, just as I wouldn't be surprised if they won 82. 

 

Most of their improvements will be tied to the young guys. The downside is, most of the teams they are chasing has made upgrades this off season.

Would you be surprised by 92? Lol 

[Sports Guy]

He is acting like the Os outgained their pythag theorem record by like 7-10 games.

[byrdz]

Is this the same guy that gave the Orioles an F and F- for their trades of Lopez and Mancini? 

[spiritof66]

Doolittle must think the Orioles will be set back 5-10 games by not having Odor anchor the infield.    

And he apparently didn't give the team any credit for having an off-season that, so far, matches his name plus an extra "O" for Orioles.

[Daddy-O's]

Next years balanced schedule also plays into the Orioles favor.

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t think people realize how much we got out of Voth and Watkins last season. Watkins threw 120 IP with a 4.3 ERA. Voth had a 10 ERA when we signed him and then pitched like one of the best SP in the AL in the 2nd half. So we did get a little lucky with those two SP. Grayson should help mitigate the regression there. I think adding Eovaldi or Wacha makes us a solid 85+ win team. 

[btdart20]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, if this is to be believed, have they? We rank 8th in improvement, behind:

1. Rangers

2. Mets

3. Cubs

4. Yankees

5. Phillies

6. Giants

7. Angels

So that makes the Orioles the 4th most improved team in the AL, by this analysis   of the moves made this winter.   So for the O’s to be falling to 72 wins, Doolittle clearly thinks a lot of our players (probably mostly pitchers) overperformed last year and will regress in 2023.   

 

No Blue Jays but have the Angels.  That’s interesting.  
 

8th on improving, 19th (nearly middle of the pack/neutral), and yet losing 10 more games.  Lots of regression and health issues (with no depth) across the board I assume.  Sorry the inputs don’t equal the output.  It doesn’t pass the sniff test.

I don’t think the national guessers know what to do with the O’s.  Especially when they want clicks.  The local guys have a bias for or a jaded experience against.  I have a hard time trusting any media types regarding the O’s.