What is the real reason for our off season?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure if we had folks would have been bemoaning losing whatever it was we gave up.

I would actually be complaining with them if the rest of our offseason played out the same way as it has in this timeline.

[bpilktree]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I do not believe there are any realistic potential trades out there that could salvage this offseason.

If they locked up Henderson and Adley for a few more years through an extension I would consider that salvaging the off season.  Heck even come out and saying we are trying to extend a guy or two to keep them here longer would help some.  Right now it seems like we don’t have a plan for now or even the future.  If your organization is not going to spend money then you need to be creative and take gambles to buy an extra year or two from the guys you think are your core.  The Braves took gambles on Acuna, Albies,  Riley and now are doing same thing with Harris and Murphy.   The Rays have been near the bottom in payroll but they still have taken some gambles with extending players before they blew up and became too expensive.  They gambled on some guys and those guys took the money as a safety net in case the got injured but now had guaranteed money.  

[HakunaSakata]

What is the "real" reason for our offseason? I think it's one of two things. 

1) Money (more specifically the unwillingness of ownership to spend it).

OR

2) Management/ownership thinking that the 2022 team overachieved and that we aren't ready to contend yet. 

My money's on number one (no pun intended). 

[ThisIsBirdland]

First time poster, long time follower. Finally decided to jump on at the beginning of this off-season, and unfortunately there hasn't been too much worth commenting on yet. Apologies if this is too long of a first post 

The OP really listed a bunch of great points, and I think between those and what spiritof66 wrote, it feels likely that it's a combination of everything you all have been discussing. I thought Elias sounded shell-shocked in the winter meetings, as if he had legitimately thought there would be a good shot at the Bassitt tier on a 2/$36m or 3/$50m type of deal.

Honest question though for those who are so disappointed right now: what realistic grouping of players would have made such a significant difference for the 2023 Orioles? I'm not including the top 3 SPs or shortstops here; whether the O's should realistically be in play for those contracts is a different debate right now.

I wanted Bassitt ($21m), Josh Bell ($16.5m), Michael Conforto ($18m), a legitimate backup C ($2.5m), and a second vet SP ($10m) (Gibson would have been meh for me here but I'd have been sold if the FO felt strongly about him). I thought this was reasonable, and this would have been an increase of payroll of about $68m this season, plus $58m committed in 2024 and $21m committed in 2025. Instead, we're looking at Gibson ($10m), Frazier ($8m), Givens ($4-5m), and McCann ($2.5m) for about $25m, with only McCann and Givens' option moving forward (total of $147m for what I wanted versus $32m). FWIW I'm still hopeful for Wacha or a SP trade, plus maybe Belt/Hosmer for a LH 1B, so maybe we end up closer to $35-$40m this year.

As someone who wanted the O's to sign Chris Davis, Alex Cobb, Ubaldo Jimenez (or Lance Lynn) back in the day, I'm maybe naively over the belief that big free agency moves determine success in MLB. But again, say we do end up bringing in Wacha and Belt/Hosmer, how much better would the O's be with Bassitt, Bell and Conforto instead of Wacha, Frazier, Belt/Hosmer and Givens? My preference would still obviously be the Bassitt/Bell/Conforto group, but for an additional $90-$100m over three years, I don't know that I fault the O's that much for not giving out those contracts. These aren't guaranteed contributors without warts we're talking about here, and I didn't feel like there were many other obvious options out there.

None of this can be answered until the season of course. We honestly just need to see if Gibson and Frazier play well or not. If they don't and we regress, this was a pretty unequivocally bad off-season. If they positively contribute to a playoff season while we continue developing the farm, I think we may look back on this as an acceptable/good off-season. Time will tell, and given the pace and trajectory of the rebuild (much more important than free agency for me), I won't crucify Elias for over-promising and under-delivering with his media comments leading into the offseason.

[Sports Guy]

We paid Kyle Gibson the same thing Boston paid Kluber.

Ownership doesn’t help but Elias’ decision making this offseason has been very sketchy and that’s not on ownership.

[billhatf]

Honestly, I think the issue is the budget Elias was given by the finance department. I really don't believe that there's any Angelos involvement ... I think the orioles are running themselves. My experience with finance departments is they are Lazer focused on budget, not fans or the baseball industry.

I still believe in this team and see no reason they can't make the playoffs if they stay healthy.  I think they'll be in contention for a wild card at the deadline and make a trade for a rental pitcher.

[Pickles]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We paid Kyle Gibson the same thing Boston paid Kluber.

Ownership doesn’t help but Elias’ decision making this offseason has been very sketchy and that’s not on ownership.

Wait, you think Kluber is in another class than Gibson?

That's silly.

[deward]

2 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Kremer (coming off his first season with over 100 innings)

Bradish (flashed serious potential in rookie season and should become more consistent)

Means (retuning from TJ)

Wells (back to pre-injury form)

Hall (establish a role)

Rodriguez (top prospect)

 

Every realistically priced free agent pitcher had the same question question marks as the guys above at exponentially higher costs.

I suspect that we're going to find out that at least some of Kremer/Bradish/Wells won't be able to replicate their 2022 success going forward. No one should be counting on Means for significant contributions in 2023. If he's able to, great, but there's no certainty there. And Hall needs to figure out his control issues before he can be expected to be a major contributor. I would have much more confidence in someone like Bassitt or Eovaldi to perform in 2023 than any of those guys. 

[TopGunnar]

The only teams to spend money this year are big market teams. We’re not a big market team and probably never will be. Plus we have many of our answers in the minors (hopefully). 
 

we’re still a couple years away imo from being true contenders 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

The only teams to spend money this year are big market teams. We’re not a big market team and probably never will be. Plus we have many of our answers in the minors (hopefully). 
 

we’re still a couple years away imo from being true contenders 

San Diego is the 26th MLB market, by size.

[SemperFi]

2 hours ago, oriole said:

Pure speculation but I bet ownership thought the rebuild would take longer and never actually intended on spending money. They probably figured by the time the team seemed potentially competitive then they’d have been sold by then. I can’t imagine Elias would have taken the job if he’d have been under the impression that he had to continue playing a team with a bottom 5 pay roll even when the core was ready. 
 

I expect Elias to be out as soon as he is able. This is a very calculated person we’re talking about and I just can’t see any real reason he’d have to use the language he did (“lift off”) if he didn’t expect to back it up. He seems like a professional so I doubt we’ll ever know. But this off season has made him look like a cheap lying scaredy cat. 

I agree, I like Elias and know others in baseball do.  I will reserve judgement on the offseason as I think there will be other moves.  I am pretty sure he came in with agreement with what budgets would look like 4-5 years out and if spending is on hold he will move on.  He will have other options, but as to your last point his business acumen is on the line. 

[crawjo]

One thing I can say from many years following baseball and the Orioles: winning the off-season means very little when it comes to the following season. I know that's a boring thing to say, but it's true. And I don't say it to excuse the organization, which I think should be spending more than it is. I do suspect that the organization was caught off-guard by the contracts that Steve Cohen in particular gave out, but regardless,. the future of this team rests in the hands of the young players that are already on the MLB roster and the ones that are coming through the system now. 

I don't pay any attention at all to projected records or things like that. Rarely have they been accurate in the past. It's all just a way to keep people talking about baseball during the offseason. Which is fine, but don't put so much stock in it. The games that matter start in the spring. 

[Yardball85]

13 minutes ago, deward said:

I suspect that we're going to find out that at least some of Kremer/Bradish/Wells won't be able to replicate their 2022 success going forward. No one should be counting on Means for significant contributions in 2023. If he's able to, great, but there's no certainty there. And Hall needs to figure out his control issues before he can be expected to be a major contributor. I would have much more confidence in someone like Bassitt or Eovaldi to perform in 2023 than any of those guys. 

Yup.  This is a great post, and a big reason why the Orioles, if they are trying to compete in 2023 (which they said they were, didn't they?) should have signed Eovaldi or Bassitt.  

[Yardball85]

10 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

The only teams to spend money this year are big market teams. We’re not a big market team and probably never will be. Plus we have many of our answers in the minors (hopefully). 
 

we’re still a couple years away imo from being true contenders 

Teams that have given out multi-year contracts of $10M or more:

• Red Sox
• Blue Jays
• Yankees
• Rays (!)
• Mets
• Phillies
• Braves (Murphy)
• Cubs
• White Sox
• Guardians
• Rangers
• Angels
• Giants
• Padres

I think it's a poor excuse (and factually incorrect) to defend the Orioles because only "big market teams" spent money.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's overly risk adverse.

Houston model did not involve huge mega deal free agent signings.  Trades obtained pitching like Verlander and Cole.