What is the real reason for our off season?

[Moose Milligan]

32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I basically made these same points on 105.7 yesterday. We have treaded water at best so far this offseason and missed out on several starting pitchers that could have improved the team. But, there's still the trade market in January and into early February as the key FA pieces have fallen into place.

We've had Elias at the helm for a few years now, enough to start understanding patterns and trends, I believe.

I've stated before that the only time Elias seems aggressive on the trade market is at the deadline during the season.  He's never been aggressive via trades in the offseason and I don't expect that to change right now.  The McCann trade was nice, it addressed a need but it's not going to be anything that helps vault this team to the next level.  

[RZNJ]

47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We've had Elias at the helm for a few years now, enough to start understanding patterns and trends, I believe.

I've stated before that the only time Elias seems aggressive on the trade market is at the deadline during the season.  He's never been aggressive via trades in the offseason and I don't expect that to change right now.  The McCann trade was nice, it addressed a need but it's not going to be anything that helps vault this team to the next level.  

I wouldn't even say he was agressive at the deadline.   Looks to me like he waited until someone was willing to pay "his" price.   I do think he's cautious in both spending and trading.    That's not always a bad thing.

He said he was looking for buy side trades.   Like the McCann trade, he's looking for someone in a weakened position looking to move salary.   That should be put Elias in the driver's seat.   So he's looking for situations where he has leverage.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn't even say he was agressive at the deadline.   Looks to me like he waited until someone was willing to pay "his" price.   I do think he's cautious in both spending and trading.    That's not always a bad thing.

He said he was looking for buy side trades.   Like the McCann trade, he's looking for someone in a weakened position looking to move salary.   That should be put Elias in the driver's seat.   So he's looking for situations where he has leverage.

I don't think anyone is saying that it's always a bad thing.  But it certainly isn't always a good thing either.  There are times for one approach and times for a different approach.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think anyone is saying that it's always a bad thing.  But it certainly isn't always a good thing either.  There are times for one approach and times for a different approach.

I didn't say otherwise.  I agree.

[sportsfan8703]

Eric Lauer of the Brewers could be a trade target. He doesn’t have the price tag of Pablo Lopez and the Brewers need a 3B. Lauer has been publicly critical of the Brewers FO. Ramon Urias and a prospect seems like a deal?

[SemperFi]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's been my take.

At least until they get hit with the inheritance tax.

"Have wondered about this a number of times this off-season. How much money has the ownership group pocketed the last several years. Could this add up to the group keeping the team, instead. That scares me, since it could take another several offseason’s like this"

From the link I posted earlier around $100m in the tank years, maybe more.  Good idea what revenue rent and salaries are, I have no clue what the other operating expenses and debt service is.  I would guess a large chunk is taken by the family in salary to avoid the 40% inheritance tax.

 

 

[maybenxtyr]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Don't worry, once the fans do their job and spend money on the team some of the additional revenue will trickled down into future payroll.

I thought they had a "war chest" of already saved money ready to dump into the team? 

 

 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Eric Lauer of the Brewers could be a trade target. He doesn’t have the price tag of Pablo Lopez and the Brewers need a 3B. Lauer has been publicly critical of the Brewers FO. Ramon Urias and a prospect seems like a deal?

Interesting name.  I hadn't seen this one before.   A LHP too.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

I thought they had a "war chest" of already saved money ready to dump into the team? 

 

 

Those pesky Pirates stole the chest.  That's how they can afford to spend that much this offseason.

Turns out putting the money in a literal chest and sticking it on a boat in the Bay wasn't a great idea.

[NCRaven]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Those pesky Pirates stole the chest.  That's how they can afford to spend that much this offseason.

Turns out putting the money in a literal chest and sticking it on a boat in the Bay wasn't a great idea.

I think it was the Ravens cheerleaders so they could pay Lamar.  I heard one of them start a cheer with "Give me an arrrrrrr...."

[Number5]

24 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Eric Lauer of the Brewers could be a trade target. He doesn’t have the price tag of Pablo Lopez and the Brewers need a 3B. Lauer has been publicly critical of the Brewers FO. Ramon Urias and a prospect seems like a deal?

Lauer for Urias sounds interesting, but, looking at rWAR and fWAR, it seems like MIL is the team that should be adding to the deal, not BAL.  No?

[SemperFi]

3 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

Year	Revenue	Salaries	Payroll+Exp	Rev-Exp	Op Income	Op Cost
2014	245	110	122	123	31.4	91.6
2015	239	118.9	137	102	8.8	93.2
2016	253	147.7	162	91	-2.1	93.1
2017	252	164.3	183	69	-26	95
2018	251	143	161	90	-6.5	96.5
2019	256	61.1	103	153	57	96
2020	115	23.9	43	72	-23	95
2021	251	45.7	66	185	83	102

I thought I would try to "estimate" the cost of doing business, i.e. Operating Cost. It turns out it is remarkably consistent. To determine what the Payroll + Expenses can be you need to work backwards from Revenue and Operating Cost, it's in the $150 M range (ignoring 2020). Differences between Salaries and Payroll+Expenses is generally in the $15-20 M range but was >$40 M in 2019, don't know why. Difference between Revenue-Exp and Op Income (Profit) is Op Cost. Looks like Payroll + Expenses needs to be about $125-$135 M to be sustainable so salaries in the $110-120 M range until revenue rises.

 

Thanks for your model, correct me if I am wrong but you would then have an operating profit of around $80m in 2021 dollars?  I came up with around $100m in 2022 but there are some expenses I cannot account for.  Thanks! 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn't even say he was agressive at the deadline.   Looks to me like he waited until someone was willing to pay "his" price.   I do think he's cautious in both spending and trading.    That's not always a bad thing.

He said he was looking for buy side trades.   Like the McCann trade, he's looking for someone in a weakened position looking to move salary.   That should be put Elias in the driver's seat.   So he's looking for situations where he has leverage.

This is where Lauer fits again. He’s been publicly critical of the Brewers FO 2-3 times. LH. Mid rotation arm. $5.2 projected arb price. Two years of control. Ramon playing with his brother should be good for their clubhouse. 

[Camden_yardbird]

If Goldman Sachs was hired to evaluate the team for sale that evaluation would tell the current owners that multi-year deals decreases value on sale.  As such, no multiyear deals. 

Dear Angelos': Sell the f-ing team and stop ruining my fandom.

[OriolesMagic83]

I think this will be a typical offseason until the Angelos family sells the team.  I will believe this owner is intentionally cheap until shown actual evidence otherwise.