What is the real reason for our off season?

[DirtyBird]

29 minutes ago, deward said:

Who are the four new and improved pitchers? I'm assuming Rodriguez is one. Are you counting on Gibson to be better than Lyles? Givens to be better than pre-trade Lopez? Who's #4, Hall? Other than Rodriguez, I don't see much pitching help coming from the farm in 2023. Which of last year's starters are you expecting improvement from? 

Kremer (coming off his first season with over 100 innings)

Bradish (flashed serious potential in rookie season and should become more consistent)

Means (retuning from TJ)

Wells (back to pre-injury form)

Hall (establish a role)

Rodriguez (top prospect)

 

Every realistically priced free agent pitcher had the same question question marks as the guys above at exponentially higher costs.

[RZNJ]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Just my opinion. You're certainly free to disagree.

I prefer to wait and see.  It's easy but I guess rushing to judgement before the end of the trial is easier and more fun.

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, Emory Eagle said:

This is a very frustrating off-season for a number of reasons, the primary one for me being that we have seen nothing yet that indicates that worst case scenarios are not in play (e.g. FO unexpectedly hamstrung by ownership, FAs out and out refusing to sign with the Os for market contracts, etc.).  And if they are, then any reasonable expectation for an extended run of competitive baseball in Baltimore must be significantly curbed.

On top of that is the mismanagement of fan expectations and the failure to take an opportunity to boost season ticket sales following an up year with a decent / big name signing.

I was on the Verlander train and when he signed I was hoping for Bassitt, but I don't think big name signings are the end all and be all (knowing that Bassitt isn't a big name).  Texas was one of last off season's "winners" and it got them didly squat.  Decent chance they bomb again this year.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I prefer to wait and see.  It's easy but I guess rushing to judgement before the end of the trial is easier and more fun.

It's not a "rush to judgement" if there is a reasonable amount of data already available, which in this particular case, there is.

[Emory Eagle]

5 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I was on the Verlander train and when he signed I was hoping for Bassitt, but I don't think big name signings are the end all and be all (knowing that Bassitt isn't a big name).  Texas was one of last off season's "winners" and it got them didly squat.  Decent chance they bomb again this year.

I suppose I don’t even truly mean “big name” in a MLB wide sense, I never expected that from this team.  Just a bit more of a splash to get some national press, maintain a sense of momentum with the fan base and sell some additional season tickets heading into what should be a competitive phase for the franchise.  

[DocJJ]

1 hour ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

How about our improvement is going to come from our loaded farm system which is just starting to come to MLB.  It is NOT going to come from spending tens of million dollars for a few big name, aging players.  I guess the author hasn't checked to see that we have 4 new and improved pitchers coming in 2023, as well as expected improvement in last year's starters.

I guess this respondent is overly optimistic about "expected improvement" in last year's starters.  Austin Voth will win 20 games!

 

[spiritof66]

I'll go with #6: some other reason. I tried to explain my view of this in another thread. Here's a (believe it or not) shorter version.

The Angeloses know that the team will be sold shortly after Peter Angelos's death. I doubt that anyone still thinks MLB would approve a transfer of ownership to John and his brother Lou, as apparently provided for in Peter's will that he's now unable to change, to watch them fight each other for years, while the team, with no outside source of revenue and very limited resources after paying estate taxes, flounders along. (I think it's highly probable that in 2020 the Angeloses agreed with MLB to sell promptly after Peter dies, in exchange for MLB not forcing a sale (triggering an additional tax burden) when Georgia Angelos took control of the team in 2018. The Angeloses may have a very good, a pretty good, or no reliable estimate of when Peter will die. But he's 93 1/2, and the hiring of Goldman Sachs earlier this year to advise the Angeloses about a sale of the team suggests to me that they expect that to happen in the next year or two.

It's very likely that John Angelos has been advised, by Goldman and probably others) that buyer interest, and the purchase price for the Orioles, will be maximized by minimizing the team's future payroll commitments. A buyer will want to decide, with his or her management team that may or may not include Elias, who will be on the team five years from now, who will eat up large chunks of payroll for some years (possibly unproductively due to injury or a performance downturn) and who (at least if we're talking top free agents) the team will be wasting money on toward the back end of his contract.  John Angelos wants to show the world that he's an astute businessman, so he's pushed hard to maximize the sale price not just to put an extra $0 or $100 million in his pocket from the sale but to be recognized as a success at something for the first time in his life. The drive to minimize future payroll commitments has been a constant under John Angelos.

Of course, following that course, even more so following it rigidly, has been convenient for Angelos in that it's enabled him to keep a tight lid on payroll. But I think it's more about selling the team than about skimping on 2021-23 payroll. I believe John Angelos was (and is) perfectly willing to spend an additional $30 to $35 million, maybe more, on added payroll in 2023 (plus the increase from the maturation of team-controlled young talent). He probably would be willing to add something to 2024 payroll, too, but he'd have to like the deal or see it as adding a guy who would help the team a lot this year and not look a negative-value commitment in 2024. Unfortunately for Elias and the Orioles (and their fans), this off-season there wasn't and isn't difference-making veteran talent available, matching the Orioles' needs, on short-term contracts. (Backup catcher is an exception.) That's why Elias was left to sign Gibson, Frazier and Givens. He thought that was the best he could do without obligating the team past 2024, and he may well be right about that.

Edited December 29, 2022 by spiritof66

[NCRaven]

I do think that there is significant improvement available from within the system.  We've already mentioned pitchers like Rodriguez, Hall and Bradish.  This will also be a big year on the farm for Povich, McDermott and Baumler.  Then there's a full year of Rutschman, Henderson and Stowers (and Vavra, maybe), along with the possible arrivals of Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser, and/or Norby later in the season.

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I do think that there is significant improvement available from within the system.  We've already mentioned pitchers like Rodriguez, Hall and Bradish.  This will also be a big year on the farm for Povich, McDermott and Baumler.  Then there's a full year of Rutschman, Henderson and Stowers (and Vavra, maybe), along with the possible arrivals of Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser, and/or Norby later in the season.

Povich, McDermott, and Baumler have no bearing on this team. None of them will pitch for Baltimore this year. 

[Satyr3206]

Free agent deals are notoriously risky. Especially for pitchers. No wonder Elias doesn't want to go there.

[RZNJ]

37 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

It's not a "rush to judgement" if there is a reasonable amount of data already available, which in this particular case, there is.

You have absolutely no idea what trades are out there to be made or what Elias might be pursuing despite whatever you think you know from reading mlbtraderumors. 

[Yardball85]

10 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

Free agent deals are notoriously risky. Especially for pitchers. No wonder Elias doesn't want to go there.

Ones like 5 years 185 for deGrom do.  Two years 35M for Eovaldi and one year 10 for Kluber come iwth almost no risk, especially for a team with zero long term salary commitments. 

[sportsfan8703]

33 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I do think that there is significant improvement available from within the system.  We've already mentioned pitchers like Rodriguez, Hall and Bradish.  This will also be a big year on the farm for Povich, McDermott and Baumler.  Then there's a full year of Rutschman, Henderson and Stowers (and Vavra, maybe), along with the possible arrivals of Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser, and/or Norby later in the season.

Position player wise… we are sitting pretty. In fact, I think we’ll even see that group get more deep this year with Basallo getting older, and the recent draft class really popping off. However, we’re still really shallow on SP prospects. So where is the SP coming from?  If we don’t want to draft it, trade our position players for it just yet, or sign it in FA, then where does it come from?  Elias chose this strategy, eventually you have to take a chance on a FA SP. We didn’t punt last year, we actively sold. Right before OD, then again at the deadline. Now we are acquiring players, but they are all low risk moves. 
 

Elias is being to risk adverse. Signing Wacha to a two year deal isn’t going to hurt our franchise in the long run. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You have absolutely no idea what trades are out there to be made or what Elias might be pursuing despite whatever you think you know from reading mlbtraderumors. 

Of course, but it's certainly possible to get an idea of what might be out there based on how teams have approached their offseasons and how their rosters are currently constructed.

Besides, I am mostly talking about awful our offseason moves have been so far. There is simply no single move that could turn this offseason from an F to an A, not even trading for Shohei Ohtani.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

not even trading for Shohei Ohtani.

I'm sure if we had folks would have been bemoaning losing whatever it was we gave up.