Baseball America 2023 Top 100 Prospects

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, waroriole said:

You’re confused about the K rate comment because Cowser’s came down slightly this year? And the next paragraph you say I’m constructing narratives to fit my argument?

It’s not a narrative. Those are the numbers this year with both players at the same level.  If you want, use total AAA AB’s and Westburg has a small edge at 22.3% vs. 25.8 percent.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It’s not a narrative. Those are the numbers this year with both players at the same level.  If you want, use total AAA AB’s and Westburg has a small edge at 22.3% vs. 25.8 percent.

I’ve been very encouraged that Cowser’s K rate has dropped at AAA this year.  At AAA, 38 K’s in 124 PA last year, 31 K’s in 143 PA this year.  And within this year’s performance, he had 19 K’s in his first 73 PA, only 12 in the last 70.   Definitely making progress.  

[bpilktree]

On 5/8/2023 at 10:13 AM, Sports Guy said:

 

Interesting Norby is higher then Ortiz.  Norby doesn’t get a lot of love on the hangout compared to how the scouts see him.  

[Just Regular]

Elly is throwing down a gauntlet for Holliday to defend the #1 ranking, though as this was AAA maybe he will graduate before it is over:

Reds SS prospect Elly De La Cruz went 3-for-4 with three extra-base hits with an exit velocity over 116 mph on Tuesday for Triple-A Louisville.

According to Sarah Langs of MLB.com, no major league player has recorded three batted balls with an exit velocity in excess of 116 mph in a single game in the Statcast era since 2015. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

A couple things...

How much do we flip out if/when Hernaiz hits this list?

I imagine the next time the list is updated that Grayson will have exhausted his eligibility.  

Mayo, Povich, and Basallo are all beating down the door to crack this list.  

[MurphDogg]

37 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A couple things...

How much do we flip out if/when Hernaiz hits this list?

I imagine the next time the list is updated that Grayson will have exhausted his eligibility.  

Mayo, Povich, and Basallo are all beating down the door to crack this list.  

I won't be upset if/when Hernaiz hits the list. He was behind Gunnar, Holliday, Westburg, Norby and Ortiz in the infield pecking order and he was traded for a pre-arb guy who has been a league average starter over the last two years averaging 180 innings over those two years.

Those types of players don't grow on trees and you have to give up a decent prospect to acquire a player like that.

Irvin obviously isn't perfect, he benefited from pitching in the cavernous Coliseum and relied on pinpoint control to have the level of success he had. The fact that Irvin was lousy in his first three starts doesn't change the trade calculus though. Irvin has looked more like the Irvin of 2021-22 in 3 of his 4 AAA starts and I fully expect to see him again at the big league level at some point. Teams need more than 5 good starters to get through the season and he (along with DL Hall and Means in July) provides the Orioles with good depth if/when another starter struggles or is injured.

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

I won't be upset if/when Hernaiz hits the list. He was behind Gunnar, Holliday, Westburg, Norby and Ortiz in the infield pecking order and he was traded for a pre-arb guy who has been a league average starter over the last two years averaging 180 innings over those two years.

Those types of players don't grow on trees and you have to give up a decent prospect to acquire a player like that.

Irvin obviously isn't perfect, he benefited from pitching in the cavernous Coliseum and relied on pinpoint control to have the level of success he had. The fact that Irvin was lousy in his first three starts doesn't change the trade calculus though. Irvin has looked more like the Irvin of 2021-22 in 3 of his 4 AAA starts and I fully expect to see him again at the big league level at some point. Teams need more than 5 good starters to get through the season and he (along with DL Hall and Means in July) provides the Orioles with good depth if/when another starter struggles or is injured.

Unfortunately, I don't think Hall gets a chance to start an "MLB" game until next ST, unless he is part of a trade package.  

Irvin is good depth, but he'll be out of options next year. So will Watkins.  Zimmerman will have an option remaining next year.  Depth is a good thing to have.  We have quantity.  Now we just need more high end quality.  

[MurphDogg]

33 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Unfortunately, I don't think Hall gets a chance to start an "MLB" game until next ST, unless he is part of a trade package.

I would be happy to take a bet on that.

We are one well timed double header or injury away from him starting a game for the O's. He is on the 40-man roster and struck out 9 over 6 innings today in Jacksonville, allowing 2 runs, walking 1, and giving up 4 hits. If we needed a spot starter and it was his turn, he would be the guy.

Edited May 10, 2023 by MurphDogg

[emmett16]

15 hours ago, bpilktree said:

Interesting Norby is higher then Ortiz.  Norby doesn’t get a lot of love on the hangout compared to how the scouts see him.  

He probably would if he had a hot start.  Seems like all the others guys are blazing and he started off cold.  It's a long season, will be interesting to see how things stack up at the end of the year.  He finished last year on an absolute scorcher. 

[yark14]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A couple things...

How much do we flip out if/when Hernaiz hits this list?

I imagine the next time the list is updated that Grayson will have exhausted his eligibility.  

Mayo, Povich, and Basallo are all beating down the door to crack this list.  

I wonder how much mashing Creed Willems will have to do to crack the list...

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, yark14 said:

I wonder how much mashing Creed Willems will have to do to crack the list...

All the mashing.

It's cool and all but I don't get the level of concern some folks have about these lists.

[MurphDogg]

13 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He probably would if he had a hot start.  Seems like all the others guys are blazing and he started off cold.  It's a long season, will be interesting to see how things stack up at the end of the year.  He finished last year on an absolute scorcher. 

He didn't even really start out cold. His first two weeks were solid, his next two weeks were lousy and this last week he has been on a tear. He is not even 23 yet and the youngest guy on the team (three months younger than Cowser and 23 months younger than Ortiz). 

Of course he doesn't play shortstop so the ceiling is a bit lower than it is for Ortiz, and the strikeout numbers and K/BB numbers are a little high, but he is still having a good season and will hopefully continue to improve and make adjustments.

[emmett16]

18 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

He didn't even really start out cold. His first two weeks were solid, his next two weeks were lousy and this last week he has been on a tear. He is not even 23 yet and the youngest guy on the team (three months younger than Cowser and 23 months younger than Ortiz). 

Of course he doesn't play shortstop so the ceiling is a bit lower than it is for Ortiz, and the strikeout numbers and K/BB numbers are a little high, but he is still having a good season and will hopefully continue to improve and make adjustments.

The avg. is pretty darn good, just looks like he hasn't quite found the power stroke yet. 

[MurphDogg]

19 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

The avg. is pretty darn good, just looks like he hasn't quite found the power stroke yet. 

9 doubles in 32 games though, so even if he doesn't pick up the home run pace, 40-ish doubles and 15-ish homers would be nothing to sneeze at.

He only hit 23 doubles (and 4 triples) last year to go along with 29 homers. Pretty rare for players who use the whole field to end up with more homers than doubles. 

[btdart20]

Locked On MLB Prospects did a show on the new BA rankings.  They talked Jackson and Kjerstad.  

(And FWIW, they hot-take that Drew Jones dropped because of both his injury and ineffectiveness.)