Can the Orioles fix Kyle Bradish's fastball?

[DocJJ]

I saw that he ranked 590 out of 594 pitchers in 4 seam fastball success.   Opponents hit .321 against it with a whopping slugging percentage.  Speed was fine- close to 96 MPH average.  Experts say the pitch is too straight.  It get hit a ton because it doesn't have velocity.   Can anyone work with him on changing his grip or something to give it more movement or sink or something?

[Ridgway22]

8 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I saw that he ranked 590 out of 594 pitchers in 4 seam fastball success.   Opponents hit .321 against it with a whopping slugging percentage.  Speed was fine- close to 96 MPH average.  Experts say the pitch is too straight.  It get hit a ton because it doesn't have velocity.   Can anyone work with him on changing his grip or something to give it more movement or sink or something?

Tony did an excellent breakdown of this very subject. I've never linked to another thread, but its here somewhere.

 

[Jagwar]

Throw it less?

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Ridgway22 said:

Tony did an excellent breakdown of this very subject. I've never linked to another thread, but its here somewhere.

 

It was this post made in June. Perhaps it's time to relook after a successful second half.

 

 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm assuming if he wants to get more movement on his 4 seamer, he'll have to alter his grip a little bit, apply different pressure with the fingers, etc.  Easier said than done, though...or else everyone would have a fastball with great movement.

 

[Tony-OH]

So I did some research on his arsenal focusing on his fastball from before his "injury" and after his return in late July. 

The most interesting thing is that he started to throw a sinker in his September 6th start and used it the rest of the year. He actually threw the sinker as fast or faster than his fastball, but got as much as -16 inches of Horizontal movement on his sinker while getting as much as +6 inches of cut on his fastball at the same MPH and same Vertical movement. That's basically having one pitch move one way and one the other out of the same point/tunnel. 

The biggest difference overall though is that he ended up throwing his slider more and more and actually more than his fastball by the end of the year. 

The fastball, because it gets between cutting movement and arm side run, ends up too straight too often and it gets hammered. Bradish seemed to limit that more in the second half.

I like the inclusion of the sinker to his repertoire and if he finds that consistent cut with the fastball, while also being able to find the arm side run on the sinker, it could help him keep hitters off his keying on the fastball.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

Another issue with Bradish is the ineffectiveness of his changeup.  He threw it 8.5% of the time. It was 89 mph on average with his Sinker being 95.3 mph and his 4seamer at 94.5 mph; (all stats from baseball savant).  That's not much of a speed differential. It probably looks like a BP fastball to most hitters. The movement is not stellar either.  That's a pitch that he needs to re-think. Most RH pitchers need something to keep LH hitters off their breaking pitches. Usually that's a changeup that breaks away from them. 

Now he does have a curveball he threw 12.9% of the time. It was his most effective pitch with a BAA of .233 and a SLGA of .300 and a Whiff% of 23.4%. It clocked in at 83.2 mph and had a vertical drop of 53 inches. Horizontal movement was 5.8 inches. So maybe throw the curve a bit more and the Change a bit less? 

[Sports Guy]

Not sure how many players I would list before I got to Bradish on the list of “can’t wait to see more” but it wouldn’t be many players at all.

He is such a potentially important long term piece..but can he stay a starter?  Big question to answer.

[btdart20]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

So I did some research on his arsenal focusing on his fastball from before his "injury" and after his return in late July. 

The most interesting thing is that he started to throw a sinker in his September 6th start and used it the rest of the year. He actually threw the sinker as fast or faster than his fastball, but got as much as -16 inches of Horizontal movement on his sinker while getting as much as +6 inches of cut on his fastball at the same MPH and same Vertical movement. That's basically having one pitch move one way and one the other out of the same point/tunnel. 

The biggest difference overall though is that he ended up throwing his slider more and more and actually more than his fastball by the end of the year. 

The fastball, because it gets between cutting movement and arm side run, ends up too straight too often and it gets hammered. Bradish seemed to limit that more in the second half.

I like the inclusion of the sinker to his repertoire and if he finds that consistent cut with the fastball, while also being able to find the arm side run on the sinker, it could help him keep hitters off his keying on the fastball.

 

Nice!  He threw every one of his sinkers in September.  And 85 of the 86 he threw were to RHH.  It was a league average type movement pitch.  In the small sample, he minimized HC%, LA, and EV with that pitch too.  No Barrels too!  I bet he throws it much more in 2023.

This was his essentially his pitch mix priority in September:

vs. RHP - Slider, sinker, curve, 4-seam

vs. LHP - 4-seam, slider, curve, changeup

[Aristotelian]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 

The biggest difference overall though is that he ended up throwing his slider more and more and actually more than his fastball by the end of the year. 

The fastball, because it gets between cutting movement and arm side run, ends up too straight too often and it gets hammered. Bradish seemed to limit that more in the second half.

I like the inclusion of the sinker to his repertoire and if he finds that consistent cut with the fastball, while also being able to find the arm side run on the sinker, it could help him keep hitters off his keying on the fastball.

 

Interesting. Voth is another guy whose fastball usage went way down when he came to the O's (60% to 40%), with slider/cutter going way up. With us he has essentially been using the cutter to set up the fastball as much as the opposite. I wonder if Bradish is headed in that direction. Also I wonder if a Holt specialty is recognizing guys with good offspeed command. 

[interloper]

13 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

So I did some research on his arsenal focusing on his fastball from before his "injury" and after his return in late July. 

Do you get the impression that, under the Elias regime, they remove players for so-called injuries or option them in order to do mid-season development or implement repertoire changes, etc? It kind of feels like that to me, but not sure there's enough sample to really say they do that. Kind of an interesting thought though. Like maybe they get a big enough sample on what Bradish looks like in the majors, see what's not working, give him an injury rest (by midseason you could probably claim soreness or injury on any pitcher) and then implement changes while he rehabs. Then, boom, he's refreshed and armed with new weapons in the second half based on the analytics. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Do you get the impression that, under the Elias regime, they remove players for so-called injuries or option them in order to do mid-season development or implement repertoire changes, etc? It kind of feels like that to me, but not sure there's enough sample to really say they do that. Kind of an interesting thought though. Like maybe they get a big enough sample on what Bradish looks like in the majors, see what's not working, give him an injury rest (by midseason you could probably claim soreness or injury on any pitcher) and then implement changes while he rehabs. Then, boom, he's refreshed and armed with new weapons in the second half based on the analytics. 

That seems like the type of shady behavior that could get a team in trouble.

I haven't seen anything in Elias' past that makes me think he'd stoop to anything unethical.

 

[NCRaven]

Can, I know that you know that Elias was not implicated in that in any way.  He was directing the farm system.  Although, I guess he could have been teaching the prospects how to beat on cans.  Just don't think that they dug that deep.

[Can_of_corn]

Guess we found out who doesn't like Doug.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, NCRaven said:

Can, I know that you know that Elias was not implicated in that in any way.  He was directing the farm system.  Although, I guess he could have been teaching the prospects how to beat on cans.  Just don't think that they dug that deep.

I do know that.  I'm not suggesting he was in any way part of the decision making process.

He was part of an organization that did things of that sort.  That was the environment he was in.

Do I think he was aware of what was happening?  Yes.

I do think that faking injuries would be pretty unethical, but the same sort of of, "finding an edge" sort of unethical we saw in Houston.

 

It also gave me a chance to post that video which I think is entertaining.