Starting Rotation Ceiling?

[PHRESH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just take whatever wildcard’s average prediction is.  

I thought it was his thread! Lol

[Frobby]

Here are the ZiPS 80th percentile ERA projections for each of our main starter candidates:

Kremer 3.11

Rofriguez 3.21

Hall 3.42

Means 3.53

Irvin 3.66

Wells 3.91

Gibson 4.04

Voth 4.04

Bradish 4.04

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

The ceiling is probably 3rd in the AL East...most likely 4th in the East.

I made my predictions several months back, but you didn’t like them.  

[maybenxtyr]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I made my predictions several months back, but you didn’t like them.  

I love your posts... I'm actually more optimistic about the team today than I may have been previously. I think 3rd place in the East is a best case scenario though. 

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here are the ZiPS 80th percentile ERA projections for each of our main starter candidates:

Kremer 3.11

Rofriguez 3.21

Hall 3.42

Means 3.53

Irvin 3.66

Wells 3.91

Gibson 4.04

Voth 4.04

Bradish 4.04

Wow.   If that happens the O's will probably win the division.  I thought the new rules would generate more offense not less.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Wow.   If that happens the O's will probably win the division.  I thought the new rules would generate more offense not less.

ZiPS has not taken the new rules into account, per Szymborski.   Remember, these are 80th percentile projections, meaning ZiPS thinks each player has a 20% chance of doing that well or better. But each pitcher’s odds are independent of the next player.   The odds of all of them doing it are 0.2 to the 9th power, a very tiny number.  Might as well say it’s zero.

 

[MarCakes21]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

ZiPS has not taken the new rules into account, per Szymborski.   Remember, these are 80th percentile projections, meaning ZiPS thinks each player has a 20% chance of doing that well or better. But each pitcher’s odds are independent of the next player.   The odds of all of them doing it are 0.2 to the 9th power, a very tiny number.  Might as well say it’s zero.

 

Well we only need 0.2 to the 5th power

And really, I think we only need about 3 of them to hit their 80th percent.  Could manage with another two at 50th percent, and another 3 below average and therefore less innings.