Starting Rotation Ceiling?

[Bahama O's Fan]

So, if everything breaks our way, what is the best our rotation can look this season? I assume the best starting five would be, in no order: Gibson, Irvin, Kremer, Bradish and Rodriguez with Means coming in for the second half, pushing Gibson or Irvin to less starts, in a perfect world. What numbers do you think these guys are capable of? Where would we probably rank in the AL in that scenario?

[Explosivo]

I just have a feeling we are going to see Irvin make a huge step up for us. I think Gibson will be Lyles 2.0, same production and steady throughout the year. I think we will get regression from Kremer and progression from Bradish. I don’t think Means will be a huge boost coming back from TJ. I think we will make a trade of Mateo and Hays to further our depth and let loose our young prospects and I’ll just make a wild call out, I think we see Povich and Hall start this year at some point in the second half. I also think Rodriguez is going to prove to folks why he is such a highly rated prospect. He has the arm, poise, and familiarity to come in and supplant as a true dominant ace. We will see flashes of that this year. We win 90+ games and will see a lot of new faces after the trade deadline, mainly Cowser, Westburg, and Ortiz.

Edited February 19, 2023 by Explosivo

[Frobby]

Just take whatever wildcard’s average prediction is.  

[Too Tall]

How about 5 twenty game winners? Oh the memories!!!!!!!!!

[Spy Fox]

A reasonable ceiling of our each individual of those individual players is probably something like:

• Gibson: Results something like 2021 (3.71 ERA in 182 IP)
• Irvin: Results something like 2022 (3.98 ERA in 181 IP) or a bit better
• Kremer: Results something like last year (3.23 ERA in 125 IP) but in a full season of IP
• Bradish: Results something like the second half of last year (3.28 ERA in 71 IP) but in a full season of IP
• Rodriguez: Results something like Manoah's rookie year in '21 (3.22 ERA in 111 IP) but maybe in slightly more IP
• Means: Results something like 2021 (3.62 ERA) over the last two months of '23

That would be a very solid rotation, and if several of these guys hit these marks I think the O's are likely headed for a playoff spot. 

The weakness in the roster is that even if all these guys hit their peak, that's still a worse rotation at the top than many of the other teams you'd be facing in the postseason. 

[ChosenOne21]

Absolute ceilings?

Gibson: 4.00
Irvin: 4.00
Kremer: 3.70
Bradish: 3.40
Rodriguez (in his first year): 3.20

Well above average results?

Gibson: 4.25
Irvin: 4.25
Kremer: 4.00
Bradish: 3.80
Rodriguez: 3.70

50th percentile?

Gibson: 4.50
Irvin: 4.60
Kremer: 4.25
Bradish: 4.15
Rodriguez: 4.00

Well below average?

Gibson: 4.90
Irvin: 5.10
Kremer: 4.50
Bradish: 4.40
Rodriguez: 4.30

Absolute disaster?

Gibson: 5.40
Irvin: 5.60
Kremer: 4.95
Bradish: 4.80
Rodriguez: 4.60

Though honestly most of them could put up demoted/out of baseball numbers and it wouldn't shock me. These are FIP predictions, btw. I think Wells's ceiling is around Kremer's and his floor is around Gibson's if I'm going to add him to the mix. Voth I would say has a ceiling around Kremer (maybe a little worse) and a floor a bit worse than Irvin

Edited February 19, 2023 by ChosenOne21

[Bahama O's Fan]

5 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

A reasonable ceiling of our each individual of those individual players is probably something like:

• Gibson: Results something like 2021 (3.71 ERA in 182 IP)
• Irvin: Results something like 2022 (3.98 ERA in 181 IP) or a bit better
• Kremer: Results something like last year (3.23 ERA in 125 IP) but in a full season of IP
• Bradish: Results something like the second half of last year (3.28 ERA in 71 IP) but in a full season of IP
• Rodriguez: Results something like Manoah's rookie year in '21 (3.22 ERA in 111 IP) but maybe in slightly more IP
• Means: Results something like 2021 (3.62 ERA) over the last two months of '23

That would be a very solid rotation, and if several of these guys hit these marks I think the O's are likely headed for a playoff spot. 

The weakness in the roster is that even if all these guys hit their peak, that's still a worse rotation at the top than many of the other teams you'd be facing in the postseason. 

That's the issue. We need that top guy. 

[Sports Guy]

The ceiling is you have an ace in Grayson, a #2 in Bradish and 3 solid middle of the rotation guys in Kremer, Irvin and Gibson.

Also, if you want to include Hall, you have 2 aces and one of the other guys (likely Kremer or Bradish) go to the pen.

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

That's the issue. We need that top guy. 

 Looking down the depth charts, the Yankees, Jays, Rays, White Sox, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Angels, and Rangers all have at least three pitchers who would probably be the O's Opening Day starter if airdropped onto the roster.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

So, if everything breaks our way, what is the best our rotation can look this season? I assume the best starting five would be, in no order: Gibson, Irvin, Kremer, Bradish and Rodriguez with Means coming in for the second half, pushing Gibson or Irvin to less starts, in a perfect world. What numbers do you think these guys are capable of? Where would we probably rank in the AL in that scenario?

Reading your question here, it’s absolutely undeniable that the best case scenario for the rotation is Hall in it and showing command and control. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Just take whatever wildcard’s average prediction is.  

Or don't predict anything because that is the best way to never be wrong.  

[maybenxtyr]

The ceiling is probably 3rd in the AL East...most likely 4th in the East.

[Explosivo]

I’m telling you guys, our team believes they make it to the World Series. They know much better what they have. Time to start believing too.

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

I’m telling you guys, our team believes they make it to the World Series. They know much better what they have. Time to start believing too.

Quote

[TheScore] Orioles CEO not ready to invest: We 'overachieved and overperformed'

Seems at least one person doesn't believe.

[Explosivo]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Seems at least one person doesn't believe.

He owns the team. He isn’t the team. Haven’t you seen Major League?

Edited February 20, 2023 by Explosivo