Jackson Holliday 2023

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

No hes not. He should have better contact quality than Frazier. But that's not the point. I had raised the point substantiated with statistics that there may be some good luck involved here in those 24 games. 

Of course there is luck.  You think Frazier's HR last night wasn't the product of luck?

[RVAOsFan]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s already rehabbing?  Hadn’t read that.  Good to see.

Elias mentioned in his mid game interview last week he could be back for the Rangers series this weekend.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Elias mentioned in his mid game interview last week he could be back for the Rangers series this weekend.

Oh wow..that’s a quick turnaround. Surprised they wouldn’t want to give him more games but must feel confident that the hammy is fine.

It’s going to be interesting to see how playing time is handled now.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Mr-splash said:

Maybe he is one of those guys who can maintain a higher than normal BAPIP. There are certain players who can do that consistently.

High BABIP is an indicator of luck.  Those who sustain a higher than normal BABIP tend to be:  LHH, a little speed, hard hitter, more line drives than FB/PU, oppo GB more than FB or IFF, all fields approach, and probably a few more things.  Jackson has done those things. 

Let's take a look at his SSS at A+ ball.  He has only put 64 balls in play (ABs - HR - K + SF).  Of those batter ball events, he's got a hit in play (H - HR) 30 times.

He's got a 16.9% FB rate.  That's like 11 times the ball has been considered a fly ball.  Only 4 currently MLBers are lower (Tim Anderson, Segura, Elias Diaz, and Luis Garcia).  Nimmo is at 17.1%.  Nico Hoerner is 18.2%.  Bichette is 19.6%.  Wander is 21.4%.  Vlad is 26.3%.  Adley is 33.3%.  FB tend to be caught more than GBs or LDs.  Jackson's MiLB FB rate is all over the place.  Which (again) is normal for small sample sizes against different levels of competition.  Is he a 15% FB guy?  Or a 25% FB guy?  If he's a 20% FB type of hitter, then that's 13 FBs.  If half of that is an out, then that's one extra out.

He's got a 0% IFF rate.  In-field flies are almost always an out.  That's not sustainable but not shocking in small sample sizes.  I think a 4-5% IFF% (IFF/FB) would a solid target.  That's Yelich, Soto, Diaz type players currently.  If 100% of these are outs, that's 2-3 more outs.

He's got a 33.8% LD%.  About 22 times he's hit a line drive.  Only 4 qualifying hitters currently have a higher LD% than that (De La Cruz, Vazquez, Merrifield, and Freeman).  Some other notables:  Bichette is 32.4%, Vlad is 27.6%, Trout is 27.2%, Nimmo is 26.3%, Yandy Diaz is 21.4%, Ohtani is 18.8%.  Jackson's LD% rates over the other MiLB levels range from 9.4% to 33.8%.  I suspect he'll be a higher than average LD%, so let's go with 28%.  So instead of 22 line drives, we're looking at 18.  

His GB rate is about 50%.  It's fairly steady across his MiLB career.  It's a little higher than MLB average.  I'll leave that as is considering his swing path and approach at the plate.

I think I've put him in an "ideal-ish" type of expected regression from a BABIP perspective with a low FB%, low IFF%, high LD%, and above average GB%.  And even if we had EV, LA, HH% data, it's really as much art as science.

That's about 6 more outs.  And puts his BABIP around .380.  Which drops his AVG from .405 to .333.  The .380 BABIP is still a little high, but who knows...  Still a Rock Star!

 

[Mr-splash]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course there is luck.  You think Frazier's HR last night wasn't the product of luck?

A HR, BB or K is a true outcome. 

[Mr-splash]

18 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

High BABIP is an indicator of luck.  Those who sustain a higher than normal BABIP tend to be:  LHH, a little speed, hard hitter, more line drives than FB/PU, oppo GB more than FB or IFF, all fields approach, and probably a few more things.  Jackson has done those things. 

Let's take a look at his SSS at A+ ball.  He has only put 64 balls in play (ABs - HR - K + SF).  Of those batter ball events, he's got a hit in play (H - HR) 30 times.

He's got a 16.9% FB rate.  That's like 11 times the ball has been considered a fly ball.  Only 4 currently MLBers are lower (Tim Anderson, Segura, Elias Diaz, and Luis Garcia).  Nimmo is at 17.1%.  Nico Hoerner is 18.2%.  Bichette is 19.6%.  Wander is 21.4%.  Vlad is 26.3%.  Adley is 33.3%.  FB tend to be caught more than GBs or LDs.  Jackson's MiLB FB rate is all over the place.  Which (again) is normal for small sample sizes against different levels of competition.  Is he a 15% FB guy?  Or a 25% FB guy?  If he's a 20% FB type of hitter, then that's 13 FBs.  If half of that is an out, then that's one extra out.

He's got a 0% IFF rate.  In-field flies are almost always an out.  That's not sustainable but not shocking in small sample sizes.  I think a 4-5% IFF% (IFF/FB) would a solid target.  That's Yelich, Soto, Diaz type players currently.  If 100% of these are outs, that's 2-3 more outs.

He's got a 33.8% LD%.  About 22 times he's hit a line drive.  Only 4 qualifying hitters currently have a higher LD% than that (De La Cruz, Vazquez, Merrifield, and Freeman).  Some other notables:  Bichette is 32.4%, Vlad is 27.6%, Trout is 27.2%, Nimmo is 26.3%, Yandy Diaz is 21.4%, Ohtani is 18.8%.  Jackson's LD% rates over the other MiLB levels range from 9.4% to 33.8%.  I suspect he'll be a higher than average LD%, so let's go with 28%.  So instead of 22 line drives, we're looking at 18.  

His GB rate is about 50%.  It's fairly steady across his MiLB career.  It's a little higher than MLB average.  I'll leave that as is considering his swing path and approach at the plate.

I think I've put him in an "ideal-ish" type of expected regression from a BABIP perspective with a low FB%, low IFF%, high LD%, and above average GB%.  And even if we had EV, LA, HH% data, it's really as much art as science.

That's about 6 more outs.  And puts his BABIP around .380.  Which drops his AVG from .405 to .333.  The .380 BABIP is still a little high, but who knows...  Still a Rock Star!

 

Solid post. I'm not saying hes not hitting well, but hes absolutely been lucky and is due to experience regression statistically. 

[Hank Scorpio]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

NO ONE is arguing that he is simply on a heater.

Some of us think he's super good and on a heater.

Zero folks here are denying that he has the look of a very special player.

I'm here.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

A HR, BB or K is a true outcome. 

Yep, and a HR that is a HR in either 1 or 3 ballparks out of 30 is a product of luck. 

[sevastras]

He is 4 for 8 with 4 walks and 2 SO in three games this week. There are 4 more games this week before a long off period. 

[Hank Scorpio]

2 hours ago, Mr-splash said:

No hes not. He should have better contact quality than Frazier. But that's not the point. I had raised the point substantiated with statistics that there may be some good luck involved here in those 24 games. 

What are we arguing about here? Who cares if he's better than Frazier right now? 

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

A HR, BB or K is a true outcome. 

It’s an actual outcome but luck is involved in all of it.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s an actual outcome but luck is involved in all of it.

If you end up getting walked on a pitch that should have been called strike 3 luck was involved in that "true" outcome.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

If you end up getting walked on a pitch that should have been called strike 3 luck was involved in that "true" outcome.

Exactly..just as a K can be lucky for a pitcher or you hit a ball that only goes out of 3 parks but you happen to be in one of the parks where it leaves. 
 

Why people treat luck as if it’s some dirty word is beyond me.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Exactly..just as a K can be lucky for a pitcher or you hit a ball that only goes out of 3 parks but you happen to be in one of the parks where it leaves. 
 

Why people treat luck as if it’s some dirty word is beyond me.

Come on now.

As if either one of us can't recognize someone being argumentation just for the sake of being argumentative.

[Mr-splash]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Come on now.

As if either one of us can't recognize someone being argumentation just for the sake of being argumentative.

I stopped responding because I didnt want to debate the topic anymore. I said what I said. His BABIP seems a little inflated. Take it for what you want. Its up to you. What you do with that information is up to you.