Jackson Holliday 2023

[Alasdaire]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Understood and I hope he is anywhere close to as good as any of them. But I guess, I'm curious as to what has led him to outperform expectations by this wide margin? I mean if Bryce Harper had done what he is doing, people/experts would have said see "we told you that he was this good". But for a kid who was not a consensus/sure-fire #1 by any means to have this type of meteoric rise, it does cause me to really stand at attention and wondering is he this good? Just too advance for these lower levels? Or was something missed in the evaluation period leading up to the draft? Did he figuring it out all of a sudden which caused him to unlock his full potential? etc. I just have questions as to how he got here.

He was always on the radar because of who his dad is if nothing else. But his athleticism/size at 16 wasn't anything to write home about. There were even questions about his approach as late as the summer season going into his senior year.

His breakout came as a senior. Broke the national hits record in a year with 89/130. Previously held by JT Realmuto for quite awhile.

If he had been hitting like that as a junior/rising senior and then continued it into his senior year, he probably would have been talked about as a "generational." The reason why guys like Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are discussed that way is because they look like that when they're 15.

But for Holliday, it was a small sample size that occurred close to the time of the draft. Still enough for the O's to buy into the upward trajectory and take him 1:1, but I'm addressing your question as to why he wasn't talked about like "generational" prospects are.

This is why I'm asking if/when it's appropriate to assign him a 70 hit tool, which I think makes you "special" by itself. Guys like Adley weren't elite when they were teenagers but came to be looked at that way by the time they were in their early-20s. Jackson is young enough to still be viewed that way even if he wasn't as a sophomore in high school.

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Part of this is probably just a torrid series he had when he almost hit for the cycle in back to back games.  The sample size is plenty small enough that a historic couple of games like that will boost his already very impressive numbers into video game territory.

 

I think you can argue he has been on this tear going back to the beginning of his senior season. So well over a year now across many leagues. He has shown almost no weaknesses at the plate for a very long time now.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

I think you can argue he has been on this tear going back to the beginning of his senior season. So well over a year now across many leagues. He has shown almost no weaknesses at the plate for a very long time now.

I'm not saying he hasn't had a protracted period of excellence.

I'm saying that the ridiculous series he had recently (what was it 9 hits in a row, mostly for extra bases?)pushed his numbers to an even higher level.  You can be really good and still go on a burner and right after that burner probably isn't the best time to look at the overall stats and make any pronouncements.

I'm not down on him in any way but he isn't going to do this very often:

Quote

So far this week, 11 for 16, 3 doubles, 3 triples, 2 HRs, 13 RBI, 1 BB, 0 K's.

 

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

He was always on the radar because of who his dad is if nothing else. But his athleticism/size at 16 wasn't anything to write home about. There were even questions about his approach as late as the summer season going into his senior year.

His breakout came as a senior. Broke the national hits record in a year with 89/130. Previously held by JT Realmuto for quite awhile.

If he had been hitting like that as a junior/rising senior and then continued it into his senior year, he probably would have been talked about as a "generational." The reason why guys like Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are discussed that way is because they look like that when they're 15.

But for Holliday, it was a small sample size that occurred close to the time of the draft. Still enough for the O's to buy into the upward trajectory and take him 1:1, but I'm addressing your question as to why he wasn't talked about like "generational" prospects are.

This is why I'm asking if/when it's appropriate to assign him a 70 hit tool, which I think makes you "special" by itself. Guys like Adley weren't elite when they were teenagers but came to be looked at that way by the time they were in their early-20s. Jackson is young enough to still be viewed that way even if he wasn't as a sophomore in high school.

I think you can argue he has been on this tear going back to the beginning of his senior season. So well over a year now across many leagues. He has shown almost no weaknesses at the plate for a very long time now.

I appreciate this insight/information/perspective! It sounds like very reasonable logic to me. From what you are saying, it sounds like he was a late bloomer and something click in his senior season.

I'm even more excited about him now (if possible) given how you framed your last statement. It sounds like his "heater"/streak/slash crazy positive results have lasted far too long now to be considered as merely a "hot streak". 

I imagine that we are are excited to see he, Adley, and Gunnar hit in our lineup one day. I think when you add Kjerstad and Cowser (who are ALL very high pedigreed guys) we have a future lineup that will be the best in the sport (like the Braves are now, maybe a little better). If we can just find a way to some good pitching, I hate to sound cliche' here... But the sky would be the limit and all the dynasty talks/hopes/dreams may actually have some real legs!

[Alasdaire]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying he hasn't had a protracted period of excellence.

I'm saying that the ridiculous series he had recently (what was it 9 hits in a row, mostly for extra bases?)pushed his numbers to an even higher level.  You can be really good and still go on a burner and right after that burner probably isn't the best time to look at the overall stats and make any pronouncements.

I'm not down on him in any way but he isn't going to do this very often:

 

It certainly was his coming out party. The cycle would have taken it to another level and merited Jeff Passan tweets etc.

Another encouraging aspect about Holliday is it seems like he can handle the hype. I've watched a bunch of interviews of him, and he seems really well adjusted despite being who he is and his family being who they are.

[Alasdaire]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I appreciate this insight/information/perspective! It sounds like very reasonable logic to me. From what you are saying, it sounds like he was a late bloomer and something click in his senior season.

I remember reading or watching somewhere that things changed when Jackson began to get serious cage time with his dad. This is based on memory because I think I saw it on some random YouTube interview of Holliday's parents (don't judge me), but I believe there was a point in time when covid lockdowns coincided with Jackson committing to Oklahoma State and his dad deciding to be a coach there alongside the head coach, who is his brother and Jackson's uncle.

There were always stories of Jackson carrying around a toy bat in the St. Louis clubhouse as a toddler, and he obviously played baseball his whole life, but that might have been the turning point. Not that taking swings with your dad is per se going to make you generational, but it happened at a time when Jackson was probably beginning to get serious anyway.

Jackson's younger brother, Ethan, is already being talked about as the best baseball player in the world born in 2007. Part of that is because Ethan is bigger. But as long as I'm speculating wildly as to why Jackson might have had this talent all along but it didn't emerge until later, Jackson didn't have the benefit of watching an older brother do this the way Ethan will have an example to follow (and a comparison for scouts to make) because of Jackson.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

He still has to wreck AA and AAA pitching and probably he can't, but if he can all is left is for Mike Elias to take a long think.     And maybe beg John Angelos to sign a permission slip.

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I agree AA is the big show within the Minors.    He'll see hot big league stuff (and lots of mistakes) from the Cade Poviches and Chayce McDermotts of the world there.

AAA is just where Cole Irvin and Bruce Zimmermann hang out until somebody gets an owie.

If progressing from A+ to AA to AAA is Monty Hall's cash-in-hand option, behind the curtain is the Atlanta path of skipping AAA.  

[sportsfan8703]

26 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

If progressing from A+ to AA to AAA is Monty Hall's cash-in-hand option, behind the curtain is the Atlanta path of skipping AAA.  

I don't see a point to skip AAA.  That's where there's a bunch of former MLB'ers on each team.  It's a needed development step.  I could see him getting the call to Bowie next Monday.  Then playing in Bowie in June and July.  Then from there, re-evaluate.  He could play August in AAA and be in the MLB in September.  

[Bemorewins]

Unless he absolutely destroys AA and AAA (pretty much keeps doing what he has been doing), I don't see a need to hurry him up for this season.

[Mr-splash]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I'm telling you, you are agreeing and then asking the question again.

Part of this is probably just a torrid series he had when he almost hit for the cycle in back to back games.  The sample size is plenty small enough that a historic couple of games like that will boost his already very impressive numbers into video game territory.

I'll say it again and maybe this time it will stick.

 

This is a 1-1 HS pick hitting his top 10% projection.

 

I understand the point you're making and I don't think it is too difficult to grasp. Holliday's numbers at Aberdeen are IMO a product of two things. First, he's really good, better than even what was expected. And second, he's on a heater right now. His true talent level at 19 is not likely to be 1.200 OPS, but I think it's entirely reasonable to say that's he's got great talent.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying he hasn't had a protracted period of excellence.

I'm saying that the ridiculous series he had recently (what was it 9 hits in a row, mostly for extra bases?)pushed his numbers to an even higher level.  You can be really good and still go on a burner and right after that burner probably isn't the best time to look at the overall stats and make any pronouncements.

I'm not down on him in any way but he isn't going to do this very often:

 

Yes, notice he is doing it at Aberdeen, where O's prospect bats go to die.  You know, the general consensus is that prospects will start hitting better when they get out of Aberdeen.  What he's doing would be impressive for a top college hitter.  For a high school hitter, it's been amazing.  I can't remember a teenage O's prospect who hit like this.  My prospect following only goes back to the early 2000's.

[Can_of_corn]

 

[Alasdaire]

Breakdown of Jackson's swing in slow motion. Nifty because it's at Aberdeen and one is against a fastball and the other off-speed.

The swing has always been gorgeous in real time too.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Breakdown of Jackson's swing in slow motion. Nifty because it's at Aberdeen and one is against a fastball and the other off-speed.

The swing has always been gorgeous in real time too.

Really good stuff breaking down his swing mechanics. Thank you for posting this!

[sportsfan8703]

He will be in Bowie on the 30th when they begin their home stand and Aberdeen hits the road. Let the affiliates get as many Holliday home games as possible. 
 

Delmarva - Check

Aberdeen - Check

Bowie - 5/30

Futures Game - 7/8

Norfolk - 7/25

O’s - 9/1

MLB Playoffs - 10/3 - 11/4

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yes, notice he is doing it at Aberdeen, where O's prospect bats go to die.  You know, the general consensus is that prospects will start hitting better when they get out of Aberdeen.  What he's doing would be impressive for a top college hitter.  For a high school hitter, it's been amazing.  I can't remember a teenage O's prospect who hit like this.  My prospect following only goes back to the early 2000's.

His OPS is 400-500 points higher than his highly regarded college teammates, which is pretty crazy.  

I think @Can_of_cornhas a good point that judging a guy right after a mega-hot steak like last week may risk loss of objectivity.   Even so, he had a .940 OPS before last week.  It will be interesting to see how this week goes. 

By the way, the Ironbirds were 5-9 before Holliday arrived, 13-10 since.