Jackson Holliday 2023

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK, I can see that you are oddly refusing to bend on this so I'm out.

Was there an argument? Or was I just being curious and asking questions regarding his early career/minor league success? 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Was there an argument? Or was I just being curious and asking questions regarding his early career/minor league success? 

And I'm telling you, you are agreeing and then asking the question again.

Part of this is probably just a torrid series he had when he almost hit for the cycle in back to back games.  The sample size is plenty small enough that a historic couple of games like that will boost his already very impressive numbers into video game territory.

I'll say it again and maybe this time it will stick.

 

This is a 1-1 HS pick hitting his top 10% projection.

 

[Aglets]

Oh and by the way.

Druw Jones has a .483 OPS so far in A ball in the D'backs organization.  Age 19.

Not saying anything. 

Just saying.

[RZNJ]

The difference in pitching between HS and even the FCL is like night and day.  Magnify that as you go up each level.  So, it’s great that Holliday set the hits record in Oklahoma but you never know 100% how he’s going to react to more advance pitching, breaking stuff, etc.    I think that’s why Elias said he’s exceeding expectations.  You could hope but never expect what he’s doing.  Termarr Johnson was called a generational hitting talent and he’s struggling.  Druw Jones was struggling and everyone had him as the best overall player.  Jacob Berry was rated one of the best college bats and has been awful.   There’s HS pitching. There’s college pitching, even SEC pitching but none of that compares to the pros.

The next time someone tells you college is equivalent to high A or even low A just chuckle and move on.   And HS is another world entirely.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Oh and by the way.

Druw Jones has a .483 OPS so far in A ball in the D'backs organization.  Age 19.

Not saying anything. 

Just saying.

And Termarr Johnson has struck out 30 times in 80 PA and he was considered the best HS bat in the draft.  It ain’t easy.

[btdart20]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

This is a 1-1 HS pick hitting his top 10% projection.

Yep and

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The difference in pitching between HS and even the FCL is like night and day.  Magnify that as you go up each level...  There’s HS pitching. There’s college pitching, even SEC pitching but none of that compares to the pros.

The next time someone tells you college is equivalent to high A or even low A just chuckle and move on.   And HS is another world entirely.

Yep.  Even for the top HS teams that face other top HS teams in warm weather states.

[Just Regular]

The high school 1-1 that is starting to settle for me some as a comp where some of the other smaller attributes match is Chipper Jones.    The basic attribute is Club 1 deciding despite less data, this 18 is better than all the 21's.

He isn't Griffey or A-Rod with the insane physical talent, but he does give me the sense he could play 20 years and never have an OPS+ below triple digits.

Looking at Chipper's minors, ATL kept him down for three 600 PA seasons, but he only ran .900 OPS's generally.

Certainly some of today's most privileged 19 year olds have had lifelong access to training tools far beyond what anyone born in the 1970's did.    

 

[Just Regular]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The difference in pitching between HS and even the FCL is like night and day.  Magnify that as you go up each level.  So, it’s great that Holliday set the hits record in Oklahoma but you never know 100% how he’s going to react to more advance pitching, breaking stuff, etc.    I think that’s why Elias said he’s exceeding expectations.  You could hope but never expect what he’s doing.  Termarr Johnson was called a generational hitting talent and he’s struggling.  Druw Jones was struggling and everyone had him as the best overall player.  Jacob Berry was rated one of the best college bats and has been awful.   There’s HS pitching. There’s college pitching, even SEC pitching but none of that compares to the pros.

The next time someone tells you college is equivalent to high A or even low A just chuckle and move on.   And HS is another world entirely.

I like this take, but I also like Bill Parcells Planet Theory.     What if he's just Soto or Harper?

Hollliday is 19 years, 169 days old today.    19.179, 19.195, 19.207, 19.264 are the Soto/Harper debuts, and two other Oklahomans from the reserve clause days who were very good very fast, whose age Holliday will attain before the end of this season.

He still has to wreck AA and AAA pitching and probably he can't, but if he can all is left is for Mike Elias to take a long think.     And maybe beg John Angelos to sign a permission slip.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I like this take, but I also like Bill Parcells Planet Theory.     What if he's just Soto or Harper?

Hollliday is 19 years, 169 days old today.    19.179, 19.195, 19.207, 19.264 are the Soto/Harper debuts, and two other Oklahomans from the reserve clause days who were very good very fast, whose age Holliday will attain before the end of this season.

He still has to wreck AA and AAA pitching and probably he can't, but if he can all is left is for Mike Elias to take a long think.     And maybe beg John Angelos to sign a permission slip.

The only thing I’ll say is that Holliday doesn’t apear to be, physically, anywhere close to where Soto and Harper were.   He does continue to amaze though.   I’m curious to see where this goes.   I can’t wait to see what he does at Bowie.

[Bemorewins]

52 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I'm telling you, you are agreeing and then asking the question again.

Part of this is probably just a torrid series he had when he almost hit for the cycle in back to back games.  The sample size is plenty small enough that a historic couple of games like that will boost his already very impressive numbers into video game territory.

I'll say it again and maybe this time it will stick.

 

This is a 1-1 HS pick hitting his top 10% projection.

 

The way that I read your tone is kind of dictatorial and argumentative, almost like my questions/curiosity agitated you... I hope I'm wrong in this inference.  

If I offended you by asking questions and simply being curious about Holliday's "meteoric rise/historic success", I'm sorry that you found offense/agitation/aggravation/annoyance/whatever in my post(s).

I'm going to ask questions in the future that may be of a similar nature as I'm just a curious person in general.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Mr-splash said:

I agree with every word here. I think the Orioles will definitely try and avoid calling him up this year and I suspect he wont be up until summer next at the earliest. Even if he could be a positive WAR player. There is like you said, control concerns. We know that a hitters most productive seasons tend to be ages 24-32. Especially age 26-30. Half of all hitters have their most productive season between 26 and 30. If you call him up at 20 the clock starts and it's likely another team captures his prime. We dont want a situation like A-Rod or Miguel Cabrera where you call them up early and another team gets their most productive seasons. So even if Holliday is ready there are control concerns to think about. 

Watching how the Orioles are handling there non impact prospects (everyone but Rutschman and Henderson) it appears the Orioles are very much aware of trying to keep their prospects under control during this core time. 

While we understand why Duquette brought up Manny at 19-years old in 2012, let's say they didn't bring him up until he was 21 years old for the 2014 season or even late in 2013 after he would not have lost a season of controllability. 

The Orioles would have controlled him through his 26 year old season instead of his 25th year season. Now, would Manny had been better developed with a full season of AA and AAA? Maybe, who knows? 

With Holliday, you have to look at controllability unless the Orioles try to sign him long term. 

The Orioles have three franchise level players in the organization with Rutschman (control through 29-years old in 2027), Henderson (control through 27-years old in 2028) and then Holliday. This why I don't see him losing his first year of eligibility to at least 2025. That would give them control of him until age until 27 in 2030) 

Holliday could very well be that guy you lock up after his first season to a 10-year contract though.  It's not his thread, but I'd be willing to sign Rutschman through his 32 year season right now. Henderson is still going to be very good, but his inability to hit lefties a bit limits his overall effectiveness unless he can improve on that. 

[Bemorewins]

39 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The difference in pitching between HS and even the FCL is like night and day.  Magnify that as you go up each level.  So, it’s great that Holliday set the hits record in Oklahoma but you never know 100% how he’s going to react to more advance pitching, breaking stuff, etc.    I think that’s why Elias said he’s exceeding expectations.  You could hope but never expect what he’s doing.  Termarr Johnson was called a generational hitting talent and he’s struggling.  Druw Jones was struggling and everyone had him as the best overall player.  Jacob Berry was rated one of the best college bats and has been awful.   There’s HS pitching. There’s college pitching, even SEC pitching but none of that compares to the pros.

The next time someone tells you college is equivalent to high A or even low A just chuckle and move on.   And HS is another world entirely.

My implications from what you are saying, is that despite all of the advance data/technology/analytics, there is a large part of the draft and projecting prospects that is unknowable. And thus success with selections, has a large variable that involves lucking/guessing right... All of this, I agree with.

I don't think we should get used to Elias and Sig being this right every time/draft/year going forward.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The only thing I’ll say is that Holliday doesn’t apear to be, physically, anywhere close to where Soto and Harper were.   He does continue to amaze though.   I’m curious to see where this goes.   I can’t wait to see what he does at Bowie.

I agree AA is the big show within the Minors.    He'll see hot big league stuff (and lots of mistakes) from the Cade Poviches and Chayce McDermotts of the world there.

AAA is just where Cole Irvin and Bruce Zimmermann hang out until somebody gets an owie.

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

My implications from what you are saying, is that despite all of the advance data/technology/analytics, there is a large part of the draft and projecting prospects that is unknowable. And thus success with selections, has a large variable that involves lucking/guessing right... All of this, I agree with.

I don't think we should get used to Elias and Sig being this right every time/draft/year going forward.

There is some luck involved.  Even someone like Elias will tell you that.   I’m getting used to them being good and lucky.   
 

2019 -  Rutschman.  No brainer?   Some preferred Witt Jr. and we heard from those people when Witt was tearing up AA and AAA.  Henderson and Ortiz.

2020 - Kjerstad - most “experts” had him around #10 and we took him at #2.   No one believed the Orioles liked him at #2 straight up but if you did a re-draft I don’t think anyone would have a problem with it.   Also Westburg and Mayo.

2021   -   This one was the most controversial.  We passed on Lawlar and took Cowser at #5.   How could you pass on a franchise SS to take a corner OF?   No way the Orioles like Cowser better than Lawlar straight up, right?   Lawlar set the minors on fire last year only confirming the doubts over that pick.  People kept referring to Lawlars stats all year long. Kind of odd you don’t hear people quoting Lawlars stats right now, isn’t it. That’s because he’s in a slump in AA that might embarrass Jorge Mateo while Cowser is on the IL in AAA with a 1.000+ OPS.

So, once again, in this years draft I’ll read the “experts” form my opinion, watch Elias surprise me and have no problem with it whatsoever.

[Mr-splash]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Watching how the Orioles are handling there non impact prospects (everyone but Rutschman and Henderson) it appears the Orioles are very much aware of trying to keep their prospects under control during this core time. 

While we understand why Duquette brought up Manny at 19-years old in 2012, let's say they didn't bring him up until he was 21 years old for the 2014 season or even late in 2013 after he would not have lost a season of controllability. 

The Orioles would have controlled him through his 26 year old season instead of his 25th year season. Now, would Manny had been better developed with a full season of AA and AAA? Maybe, who knows? 

With Holliday, you have to look at controllability unless the Orioles try to sign him long term. 

The Orioles have three franchise level players in the organization with Rutschman (control through 29-years old in 2027), Henderson (control through 27-years old in 2028) and then Holliday. This why I don't see him losing his first year of eligibility to at least 2025. That would give them control of him until age until 27 in 2030) 

Holliday could very well be that guy you lock up after his first season to a 10-year contract though.  It's not his thread, but I'd be willing to sign Rutschman through his 32 year season right now. Henderson is still going to be very good, but his inability to hit lefties a bit limits his overall effectiveness unless he can improve on that. 

Agreed. It's not players in their early 30s that fans/teams should be worried about. It's guys 33 and over that you have to be really careful with. Yea, Goldschmidt did win the MVP last year at 35, but that isn't the norm. Fact is, over half of MLB hitters have their most productive seasons between 26-30. And for every Goldschmidt there is an Evan Longoria who had a very early prime. It's something that must be considered. So I think you are correct. The Orioles seem to be very aware of their limited spending capabilities and are seeking to control their prospects years of core production. That must be a factor (along with lack of availability on the 26 man roster) for the slow walking of our non-impact prospects.