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Jackson Holliday 2023

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 hour ago, Hallas said:

 

The other thing is that there wasn't the level of hype around this pick as there was with other fast movers.  The fast movers out of the draft that come to mind are Griffey, ARod, Machado, and Harper.  But all these guys had a ton of hype around them.  The Machado/Harper draft was seen as one of the best at the top end in years.  And Griffey and ARod were all hyped up as future HOFers before they even stepped on a major league diamond.  People were debating whether we even made the right pick with Holliday.  (spoiler alert: we did)

I wouldn’t mention Manny in the same breath as the other three, in terms of pre-draft hype.  Harper was a very clear no. 1 over Manny.   

Before Holliday, there have been 22 position players drafted 1:1 out of high school.  (For this purpose, I’m counting Bryce Harper, who was HS age but went to Juco early to enhance his draft status.). The only ones to make it to the majors in two years or less were (in reverse chronological order):

Bryce Harper (2 years)

Justin Upton (2)

Alex Rodriguez (1, for a cup of coffee, and again in August of year 2)

Ken Griffey, Jr. (2)

Mike Ivie (1, for a cup of coffee, wasn’t up again until 4 years after he was drafted)

Jeff Burroughs (1, for a cup of coffee, called up for good in July of year 2).

Tim Foli (2)

Harper (139 games), Upton (43), Rodriguez (48). Griffey (127) and Burroughs (59) got a lot of playing time in the second year after they were drafted.  

Of the other 15 players drafted 1:1 out of high school, 8 made it to the majors in 3 years, 3 made it in 4 years, and 4 took longer than 4 years.   

 

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glenn__davis
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"Challenge accepted." -Mike Elias

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Of course he needs to go to AA next, and I've said in previous threads that I don't see him in the big leagues this year due to several reasons, including 4 legitimate options ahead of him to play SS.

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Alasdaire Major Leaguer Rising Star

Alasdaire

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Does Holliday get the 70 hit tool at some point?

Holliday was considered a 60 before the draft. As a point of reference, the only 70 hit tools players I'm aware of are: Sal Frelick when he came out of Boston College in 2021, Temarr Johnson out of high school in 2022, and Dylan Crews in this year's draft out of LSU. Frelick hit ~.360 at BC the year he came out and has hit ~.325 in all levels through AAA.

Holliday set the all-time, national hits record as a senior in high school while batting ~.700. Then he hit ~.300 across two levels in 2022 and ~.400 across two levels so far this season; ~.360 overall. High BB% and low K%. Seems to pass the eye test too in terms of his swing.

Not sure what else you would be looking for as far as the hit tool goes.

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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14 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

Does Holliday get the 70 hit tool at some point?

Holliday was considered a 60 before the draft. As a point of reference, the only 70 hit tools players I'm aware of are: Sal Frelick when he came out of Boston College in 2021, Temarr Johnson out of high school in 2022, and Dylan Crews in this year's draft out of LSU. Frelick hit ~.360 at BC the year he came out and has hit ~.325 in all levels through AAA.

Holliday set the all-time, national hits record as a senior in high school while batting ~.700. Then he hit ~.300 across two levels in 2022 and ~.400 across two levels so far this season; ~.360 overall. High BB% and low K%. Seems to pass the eye test too in terms of his swing.

Not sure what else you would be looking for as far as the hit tool goes.

When prospect sites do their complete revamp post draft… I think we’ll see Holliday #1 overall a lot, and we’ll see some higher tool values. 
 

It’s crazy to think that there was a debate with Drew Jones. It’s also crazy to think that we’ll have three straight seasons of having three different #1 prospects in all of baseball. 

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Alasdaire Major Leaguer Rising Star

Alasdaire

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6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s crazy to think that there was a debate with Drew Jones. It’s also crazy to think that we’ll have three straight seasons of having three different #1 prospects in all of baseball. 

The craziest part of that is Druw Jones was said to have a better hit tool than Holliday! In retrospect, the national hits record that Holliday set as a senior should have tipped off scouts that his bat is special. It's difficult to take high school stat lines too seriously, but 90 hits in 130 at bats is undeniable.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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2 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

The craziest part of that is Druw Jones was said to have a better hit tool than Holliday! In retrospect, the national hits record that Holliday set as a senior should have tipped off scouts that his bat is special. It's difficult to take high school stat lines too seriously, but 90 hits in 130 at bats is undeniable.

I don’t think that is accurate.  The biggest question about Druw Jones was his hit tool but by last spring most “experts” were buying in.  Keith Law said, paraphrasing, Druw Jones is the clear #1 UNLESS “we are all wrong about his hit tool”.

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Alasdaire Major Leaguer Rising Star

Alasdaire

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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think that is accurate.  The biggest question about Druw Jones was his hit tool but by last spring most “experts” were buying in.  Keith Law said, paraphrasing, Druw Jones is the clear #1 UNLESS “we are all wrong about his hit tool”.

What's not accurate? I'm saying that most evaluators thought Druw Jones had a better hit tool than Holliday. Jones' production was still very good in high school, and the athleticism/baseball IQ were projected well as a hitter.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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7 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

What's not accurate? I'm saying that most evaluators thought Druw Jones had a better hit tool than Holliday. Jones' production was still very good in high school, and the athleticism/baseball IQ were projected well as a hitter.

Baseball America did rate the best 5 hit tools and Termarr was #1, Jones #2 and Holliday #4, but I believe both had a rating of 60 on the hit tool.

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Alasdaire Major Leaguer Rising Star

Alasdaire

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Baseball America did rate the best 5 hit tools and Termarr was #1, Jones #2 and Holliday #4, but I believe both had a rating of 60 on the hit tool.

Sure, I suppose you could say that Druw Jones was considered to have as good of a hit tool as Holliday even if not necessarily better.

Jones is just the prototypical five-tool player that scouts dream about. Wonder whether the O's saw through that and questioned Jones' ability to get on or if they just thought very highly of Holliday.

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Gurgi Hangout Grand Counsel

Gurgi

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Obviously Jackson looks like the best choice for Elias right now.  Makes Elias and his team look extremely savy.  I think if the kid can hit AA pitching this summer and fall you have to actually kind of wonder if he might make his pro debut in 24.  Really its all up to him.  If he hits like this there is no stopping him. 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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1 minute ago, Gurgi said:

Obviously Jackson looks like the best choice for Elias right now.  Makes Elias and his team look extremely savy.  I think if the kid can hit AA pitching this summer and fall you have to actually kind of wonder if he might make his pro debut in 24.  Really its all up to him.  If he hits like this there is no stopping him. 

It's literally not all up to him and there is something that can stop him.

I'm not saying he won't, the window is clearly open at this point.

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