Jackson Holliday 2023

[Mr-splash]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Of course he needs to go to AA next, and I've said in previous threads that I don't see him in the big leagues this year due to several reasons, including 4 legitimate options ahead of him to play SS.

He's doing things statistically, including controlling the strike zone that we have not seen in such a young player. Now Gunnar lost his true 19-year old season because of COVID, but at 20-years old (really 6 months older than Holliday), Henderson slashed .231/.343/.432/.775 striking out two times to every walk.

At 19-years old, Adley Rutschman slashed .234/.322/.306/.629 with a 27 to 39 BB-K ratio.

Between Delmarva and Aberdeen, Holliday is slashing .394/.513/.701/1.214 with an astounding 31 to 27 BB to K ratio. On top of it, he's committed just two errors in 27 starts at SS and has made several outstanding plays that shows his defensive abilities. 

So while we are used to players going one level at a time and moving more slowly, Holiday appears to be one of those very special players. As a 1-1 pick, but not a consensus 1-1 pick by any stretch of the imagination, it's expected that he would do well, but he's doing historically well right now.

They may have to move him to AA soon because pitchers in the Sally League are already pitching around him at times. 

So if there were no controllability issues, do I think Holliday could play in the major leagues right now? I do. Do I think he would struggle a bit up there because of the jump in competition, sure, most 19-year olds throughout history did. 

If Holliday can go up to AA and do well this year, I think he truly puts himself on the radar next year. Is there a chance at sometime in the second half of next year the Orioles field a defense of Henderson, Ortiz and Holliday (Ortiz is a slightly ahead of Holliday for me defensive at SS, but I need to see more of Holliday before saying that fully)? I think that's a very real possibility. 

Now, could they keep him in the minors all next year as well in order to keep him off the 40-man and not have to pay him so close to Adley and Henderson and even Ortiz? Sure. The financial situation can never be discounted. 

Right now, Holliday is a better player all around overall prospect than Henderson ever was in the minor leagues and Henderson was the #1 prospect in baseball coming into this season. I don't talk in hyperboles and if anything, I'm harder on Orioles prospects than many others that evaluate them. 

Holliday is looking more and more special every day. He's about as "can't miss" as it gets for a 19-year old in High-A ball.

 

I agree with every word here. I think the Orioles will definitely try and avoid calling him up this year and I suspect he wont be up until summer next at the earliest. Even if he could be a positive WAR player. There is like you said, control concerns. We know that a hitters most productive seasons tend to be ages 24-32. Especially age 26-30. Half of all hitters have their most productive season between 26 and 30. If you call him up at 20 the clock starts and it's likely another team captures his prime. We dont want a situation like A-Rod or Miguel Cabrera where you call them up early and another team gets their most productive seasons. So even if Holliday is ready there are control concerns to think about. 

[Can_of_corn]

53 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If what Tony says is true, and I have ever reason to believe in his evaluation/opinion of O's prospects since he sees and studies them more than most; I am wondering how Holliday's explosive/unexpected growth changes the O's plans going forward?

Would they try to keep him down longer, bring him up sooner, or work to extend him very early?

If he was of the wunderkind guys who can handle the bigs at 19/20ish; he's a guy who has superstar/multi-all star/even better potential. If he is this good, how was that missed during the draft evaluation process? Or maybe another way to ask this, is what was missed about him then that is true now (which was only a year ago)?

What was missed?  He couldn't go any higher.

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What was missed?  He couldn't go any higher.

I don’t recall (and I could be wrong) him being described or labeled as this sort of “can’t miss” type of prospects. When I hear Tony use words like “historic” it makes me really pay attention closely. I don’t recall anybody talking about Holliday in this manner pre-draft. From what he is doing now, it seems to have exceeding any expectation. And I’m wondering what has changed from then until now?

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

I agree with every word here. I think the Orioles will definitely try and avoid calling him up this year and I suspect he wont be up until summer next at the earliest. Even if he could be a positive WAR player. There is like you said, control concerns. We know that a hitters most productive seasons tend to be ages 24-32. Especially age 26-30. Half of all hitters have their most productive season between 26 and 30. If you call him up at 20 the clock starts and it's likely another team captures his prime. We dont want a situation like A-Rod or Miguel Cabrera where you call them up early and another team gets their most productive seasons. So even if Holliday is ready there are control concerns to think about. 

You are not going to be able to keep him down anywhere close to his age 24 season. I believe on this trajectory that he is on, the latest that he can stay down is middle of next season when he is what 20? 

If the O’s are that concerned about his ‘prime years’ then they might want to find out what Boras will accept for an extension and then be prepared to pay it. I will agree with you in this regard, if he is anything anywhere near as special as he appears to be, we don’t want his prime years to be spent elsewhere. For the special/elite young guys who project as superstars, those are the guys that you lock up and pay. The Mariners learned that lesson with ARod, look at how they did JRod.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

There’s a possibility he gets the Gunnar treatment and is up on the last day to be eligible for the postseason roster this year all while maintaining his rookie eligibility for next year. 
 

Enjoy the ride. He’s got 25-30 games in September to play SS/2B before the playoffs. 
 

Why not?

I find myself going back and forth on this and think I've landed on:

If this happens, it would be a countercultural Storming Heaven-like single-dose trip that shakes the foundations of the SigBot 

I suspect Elias won't hand the keys to the Benz to a 19 y/o rookie in a playoff season with other (presumably lower ceiling options) ahead of him, but tectonic shifts in cultural norms have happened in the past with the perfect storm.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t recall (and I could be wrong) him being described or labeled as this sort of “can’t miss” type of prospects. When I hear Tony use words like “historic” it makes me really pay attention closely. I don’t recall anybody talking about Holliday in this manner pre-draft. From what he is doing now, it seems to have exceeding any expectation. And I’m wondering what has changed from then until now?

First off we don't know how highly the O's front office actually thought of him.  Maybe this is in line with their projections.

Secondly, he was a HS 1-1.  This should be the top 10% projection for him.  If you took a poll last year I think all the experts would concede that a 2024 ML debut was a possibility for Holliday.  It isn't that rare.

[Aglets]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t recall (and I could be wrong) him being described or labeled as this sort of “can’t miss” type of prospects. When I hear Tony use words like “historic” it makes me really pay attention closely. I don’t recall anybody talking about Holliday in this manner pre-draft. From what he is doing now, it seems to have exceeding any expectation. And I’m wondering what has changed from then until now?

He has a 1.214 combined OPS between low and high A at the age of 19.  That is what is new.

No rational person (imo) is ever going to EXPECT a prospect to perform at that level as a teenager.  It's all theory crafting until you see players play.  Even if expectations are high.  He is outperforming guys like A-Rod, Griffey, and Trout with the bat at these levels.  Granted a lot of them played there at age 18.

[geschinger]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What was missed?  He couldn't go any higher.

It could be considered a miss from the pundits that he wasn't considered one of the elite 1/1 picks.  During the we need content phase of the offseason there would be articles on topics like Best Draft Prospects of the Past Decade - one I recall had Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson.  Not only did Holiday not make it, he wasn't even mentioned - other SS prospects that did were Witt, Swanson and Correa. 

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

First off we don't know how highly the O's front office actually thought of him.  Maybe this is in line with their projections.

Secondly, he was a HS 1-1.  This should be the top 10% projection for him.  If you took a poll last year I think all the experts would concede that a 2024 ML debut was a possibility for Holliday.  It isn't that rare.

Are you saying what he has done up until this point in the minors (given it's only been less than 60 games) "isn't that rare" for a kid coming out of high school? Or something else? I'm hearing Soto like comps now for him (in terms of being a very advanced hitter for his age) which I don't remember hearing before.

As to your point about the O's front office and their view/expectation of him, listening to Elias' comments just a few days ago about him, that's not the understanding that I walked away with. It seemed that he was saying (and I admit that I could be wrong) that Holliday has exceeded their expectations of him.

[OriolesMagic83]

It seems like Holliday is in the mix as one of the best historic prospects.  He seems to deserve a 70 or even higher prospect grade.  Wasn't Wander an 80 prospect?  What did Wander do other than be hyped that made him a better prospect?

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

If he was of the wunderkind guys who can handle the bigs at 19/20ish; he's a guy who has superstar/multi-all star/even better potential. If he is this good, how was that missed during the draft evaluation process? Or maybe another way to ask this, is what was missed about him then that is true now (which was only a year ago)?

I think I posted this earlier, but he added muscle between his Jr. and Sr. year.  As such, he only he only had 1 HS season as a stud.  

But you're asking legit questions that I would think would be discussed and tested to see if the answers can be incorporated into the SigBot for future evaluations.  But people are complex.  And unique talents maybe more so than us relatively normal people.  The fear/risk is over-emphasizing a potential false flag that don't line up with historic trends, stats, character traits, etc...

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, Aglets said:

He has a 1.214 combined OPS between low and high A at the age of 19.  That is what is new.

No rational person (imo) is ever going to EXPECT a prospect to perform at that level as a teenager.  It's all theory crafting until you see players play.  Even if expectations are high.  He is outperforming guys like A-Rod, Griffey, and Trout with the bat at these levels.  Granted a lot of them played there at age 18.

Understood and I hope he is anywhere close to as good as any of them. But I guess, I'm curious as to what has led him to outperform expectations by this wide margin? I mean if Bryce Harper had done what he is doing, people/experts would have said see "we told you that he was this good". But for a kid who was not a consensus/sure-fire #1 by any means to have this type of meteoric rise, it does cause me to really stand at attention and wondering is he this good? Just too advance for these lower levels? Or was something missed in the evaluation period leading up to the draft? Did he figuring it out all of a sudden which caused him to unlock his full potential? etc. I just have questions as to how he got here.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Are you saying what he has done up until this point in the minors (given it's only been less than 60 games) "isn't that rare" for a kid coming out of high school? Or something else? I'm hearing Soto like comps now for him (in terms of being a very advanced hitter for his age) which I don't remember hearing before.

As to your point about the O's front office and their view/expectation of him, listening to Elias' comments just a few days ago about him, that's not the understanding that I walked away with. It seemed that he was saying (and I admit that I could be wrong) that Holliday has exceeded their expectations of him.

Yes for a 1-1 it isn't that rare.  Obviously for someone that wasn't picked 1-1 it is very rare.

Arod, Griffey, Upton, Harper (he was as much HS as college).  Even Correra was in the majors at 20 (he was 17 when drafted),

Yes it's a select group but you don't see a ton of HS bats for 1-1.

You see it with lower picks as well.  Trout of course.  Heyward was in the majors for the whole season at 20.

Sure it's rare even for a 1-1 but these are normally the highest ceiling prospects.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes for a 1-1 it isn't that rare.  Obviously for someone that wasn't picked 1-1 it is very rare.

Arod, Griffey, Upton, Harper (he was as much HS as college).  Even Correra was in the majors at 20 (he was 17 when drafted),

Yes it's a select group but you don't see a ton of HS bats for 1-1.

You see it with lower picks as well.  Trout of course.  Heyward was in the majors for the whole season at 20.

Sure it's rare even for a 1-1 but these are normally the highest ceiling prospects.

I get that for guys who are 1:1 or VERY HIGHLY touted, they can arrive at the bigs "early". But he seems to be outperforming even the very best of the best in terms of his early minor league career. Again, when I hear Tony use words like "historic" to describe him, that's not something that I take lightly.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

I get that for guys who are 1:1 or VERY HIGHLY touted, they can arrive at the bigs "early". But he seems to be outperforming even the very best of the best in terms of his early minor league career. Again, when I hear Tony use words like "historic" to describe him, that's not something that I take lightly.

OK, I can see that you are oddly refusing to bend on this so I'm out.