Adley Rutschman 2023

[dystopia]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s what I don’t get Tony. He already has a rep for having a good eye. He’s a “good guy” in that he doesn’t argue, he doesn’t complain, etc…why would he be the guy that “gets picked on”?

Just seems very odd to me.

 

He’s not a Yankee or a Red Sock. That’s why. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, dystopia said:

He’s not a Yankee or a Red Sock. That’s why. 

Because Judge didn't have to deal with the same issue in the past?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because Judge didn't have to deal with the same issue in the past?

You gave him a downvote for that?  Wtf?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You gave him a downvote for that?  Wtf?

Sure did.

I hate that Oh the Yankees and Red Sox get different rules bullspit.  It's whiny and not true.

https://www.audacy.com/wfan/sports/yankees/yankees-aaron-judge-strikes-calls-out-of-zone-umpire-low

Quote

It was the 53^rd called strike on Judge that was actually outside of the zone, good for the most in baseball this season, and his 433 outside of the zone since his historic rookie season in 2017 are also the most in the majors over that span, according to the YES Network.

So yea, you whine about the Red Sox and Yankees while posting something that if factually false I'm going to downvote you.

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure did.

I hate that Oh the Yankees and Red Sox get different rules bullspit.  It's whiny and not true.

https://www.audacy.com/wfan/sports/yankees/yankees-aaron-judge-strikes-calls-out-of-zone-umpire-low

So yea, you whine about the Red Sox and Yankees while posting something that if factually false I'm going to downvote you.

 

It's hilarious that you take the downvoting that seriously.  

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not fine with the big power drop especially since the OBP is essentially the same.

 I do think his approach at the plate is too much “just try to get on base” since he is hitting at the top of the lineup and I do wonder if he would look to drive the ball more if they would hit him a little further down in the lineup.

But based on what he has done and taking maybes out of the equation, I’m not happy about much of what we have seen from him this, at least relative to my preseason expectations.

 

I think you're completely off base with his power, and in general I think you've misdiagnosed why his WAR has not lived up to expectations.

 

Statcast suggests he's getting a little unlucky on batted balls.  xWOBA is .020 higher than his actual, while last year it was .012 lower.  So that's a .032 swing.  A decent chunk of this is because Statcast thinks he hit 1 more HR last year than was expected, while this year he's short 1 HR.  If he had 2 flyouts turn into HRs he'd be at .802 OPS right now, and roughly 0.4 extra WAR.  In terms of batting runs created, he is currently 4.5 runs off last year in 87 more PAs.  If you tagged on the runs missing from his 2-HR delta in expected HRs vs actual, he'd be only 0.5 runs off that pace. 

 

The biggest reason his WAR is down is because of his defense.  He's down 7 runs according to Statcast catcher defense, and he's down almost 9 runs according to whatever Fangraphs uses (some combination of statcast defense plus whatever other magic they bake in, I believe related to pitch framing.)  I strongly dislike the fact that Fangraphs uses catcher framing in their WAR calculations because umpires are evaluated on their performance as well, and the whole catcher-vs-umpire minigame is just not something I think should be captured in player value, especially considering that as time passes either umpires will make incremental improvements to reduce the framing advantage, or MLB will move to robo-umps for balls/strikes.

 

Another reason he is down is because of baserunning, which I think everyone agrees is completely not repeatable for a catcher.  He's short of his 2022 pace by 7.5 runs according to Fangraphs, and 4 runs according to BB-Ref.

 

Another minor source of runs missing is that Hyde has DHed him more, giving him less positional value.  But this is only about a 2 run difference.

 

I think the conclusion I'd draw from this is that he had 2 sources of runs created that are either unsustainable for him (baserunning) or stupid in general (framing) and your expectations should probably have been in line with that, e.g. not a 7.5 win pace.  If you were expecting ~5 wins for the full year, that would have been reasonable, and he's going to fall short of that unless he goes on an absolute tear the rest of the way.  If you were expecting 7 wins for the full year, then thats kind of wacky.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Hallas

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

It's hilarious that you take the downvoting that seriously.  

Didn't you mean to quote Sportsguy?  He's the one that mentioned downvoting twice today.

I just responded to a poor post and tried to go on with my day.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure did.

I hate that Oh the Yankees and Red Sox get different rules bullspit.  It's whiny and not true.

https://www.audacy.com/wfan/sports/yankees/yankees-aaron-judge-strikes-calls-out-of-zone-umpire-low

So yea, you whine about the Red Sox and Yankees while posting something that if factually false I'm going to downvote you.

 

What a child.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

What a child.

You are the same guy that was whining about being downvoted earlier today right?

 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't you mean to quote Sportsguy?  He's the one that mentioned downvoting twice today.

I just responded to a poor post and tried to go on with my day.

No, although I looooooove it when SG thinks something I say is dumb and then he hits me with the little laughing rep thing.  That's like a badge of honor to me. 

Obsessing over downvoting or upvoting is weird, period.  I bet you both were delights growing up.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

I think you're completely off base with his power, and in general I think you've misdiagnosed why his WAR has not lived up to expectations.

 

Statcast suggests he's getting a little unlucky on batted balls.  xWOBA is .020 higher than his actual, while last year it was .012 lower.  So that's a .032 swing.  A decent chunk of this is because Statcast thinks he hit 1 more HR last year than was expected, while this year he's short 1 HR.  If he had 2 flyouts turn into HRs he'd be at .802 OPS right now, and roughly 0.4 extra WAR.  In terms of batting runs created, he is currently 4.5 runs off last year in 87 more PAs.  If you tagged on the runs missing from his 2-HR delta in expected HRs vs actual, he'd be only 0.5 runs off that pace. 

 

The biggest reason his WAR is down is because of his defense.  He's down 7 runs according to Statcast catcher defense, and he's down almost 9 runs according to whatever Fangraphs uses (some combination of statcast defense plus whatever other magic they bake in, I believe related to pitch framing.)  I strongly dislike the fact that Fangraphs uses catcher framing in their WAR calculations because umpires are evaluated on their performance as well, and the whole catcher-vs-umpire minigame is just not something I think should be captured in player value, especially considering that as time passes either umpires will make incremental improvements to reduce the framing advantage, or MLB will move to robo-umps for balls/strikes.

 

Another reason he is down is because of baserunning, which I think everyone agrees is completely not repeatable for a catcher.  He's short of his 2022 pace by 7.5 runs according to Fangraphs, and 4 runs according to BB-Ref.

 

Another minor source of runs missing is that Hyde has DHed him more, giving him less positional value.  But this is only about a 2 run difference.

 

I think the conclusion I'd draw from this is that he had 2 sources of runs created that are either unsustainable for him (baserunning) or stupid in general (framing) and your expectations should probably have been in line with that, e.g. not a 7.5 win pace.  If you were expecting ~5 wins for the full year, that would have been reasonable, and he's going to fall short of that unless he goes on an absolute tear the rest of the way.  If you were expecting 7 wins for the full year, then thats kind of wacky.

Can you show me where I ever diagnosed why his WAR is down?

You have this tendency to try and find all these reasons why something isn’t working or something isn’t there and you do it in a way as if people don’t realize it.

His Iso is almost down by 50 points and his slugging is down by almost 20. His doubles have fallen way off.

The power is, unquestionably, down this year and I’m disappointed by that. I didn’t expect him to be a worse player in 2023.

I do agree that most of the drop is from defense..then again I have never said differently,

[dystopia]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure did.

I hate that Oh the Yankees and Red Sox get different rules bullspit.  It's whiny and not true.

https://www.audacy.com/wfan/sports/yankees/yankees-aaron-judge-strikes-calls-out-of-zone-umpire-low

So yea, you whine about the Red Sox and Yankees while posting something that if factually false I'm going to downvote you.

 

Downvotes from you are a badge of honor.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are the same guy that was whining about being downvoted earlier today right?

 

No, I don’t care about the downvote. But when people who don’t post and put their thoughts out there for discussion, criticism, etc.. just go around and downvote people over and over again, that person deserves to be called out just for a being a douche nozzle.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No, I don’t care about the downvote. But when people who don’t post and put their thoughts out there for discussion, criticism, etc.. just go around and downvote people over and over again, that person deserves to be called out just for a being a douche nozzle.

You don't care but you felt a need to mention it.

Got it.

You probably also don't care about me downvoting what I thought was a poor, factually inaccurate, post yet you felt a need to mention it.

Got it.

You obviously don't care a whole lot.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't care but you felt a need to mention it.

Got it.

You probably also don't care about me downvoting what I thought was a poor, factually inaccurate, post yet you felt a need to mention it.

Got it.

You obviously don't care a whole lot.

 

Yea, I feel it should be pointed out that you are being a dbag, not that it is some big personality change for you.