Cole Irvin 2023

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Shane Bieber age 27

Cal Quantrill age 28

Carlos Rodon age 30

Nestor Cortez age 28

Shane McClanahan age 25

Alek Manoah age 25

Framber Valdez age 29

Christian Javier age 26

Luis Castillo age 30

Logan Gilbert age 25

These are the guys that our competitors have that we will have to face (and I didn’t include the Gerri Coles or Kevin Gausmans of the world because of their age being into their 30’s).

But for all of these do they seem like the age profile of the player type you mentioned that’s going to fall of the cliff at age 32? 

How many of those guys will be better than Grayson Rodriguez in two years?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Pickles said:

You said even if Grayson turns out as we hope (which I imagine is an Ace) and Hall turns out as we expect (which I don't know exactly what "we" expect, but I imagine that would be a successful starting pitcher) it's not "enough" to do more than "sniff the last wildcard spot."

Yes, that's laughably pessimistic, if we accept the original premise of their success.  

I think most of us expect Hall to be a reliever at this point.

 

By us I mean the OH community as a whole.  Feel free to start a poll about the topic if you think I'm off base.

[Bemorewins]

Ok. For those mentioning DL Hall as someone to reasonably count to become a top starting pitcher this year or next, let me ask - What have you seen over the last year to give you any confidence that this will be the case?

He has not succeeded at AAA at all! And now we are going to make rational/realistic plans that he will dominate Major League hitters in high leverage situations???

I applause those who hold such suppositions for your blind faith and hope. But I want to ask if our competitors had such a prospect would you plan on him having a similar outcome? Or is it just because he’s one of ours? 
 

This is where my HOPE comes in. I truly hope that Elias and Sig and not making plans for our success in this manner!

[eddie83]

Multiple things can be true at the same time.  I don’t know how anyone can say the talent isn’t better than last year and the future doesn’t look promising. 
 

That said the rotation was a concern all off-season and now 2 weeks into the season has struggled. To me this past off-season was the perfect time to spend money on a higher ceiling arm. They didn’t do that, why? it’s speculation. Was Elias not enamored enough to spend on who was available? Was ownership being cheap? Does Elias know moving forward he has a limited budget and can’t afford misses? A combo of that and more? I don’t know. 
 

I get the desire and urgency from fans to improve the rotation. You don’t want to waste time. That said you also don’t want to force feed something either. There is a balance there. The last thing Elias should do is force a trade to make things better on paper in the short term which can hurt the longer goal of consistent winning. I fully expect like Pickels a trade is going to happen at some point. It doesn’t have to be today or yesterday for that matter.  
 

This was the perfect off-season with where the club is competitively and payroll to sign an arm and take on the known risk of a starting pitcher. Instead they traded for Irvin. That move itself I was fine with. To me the rotation looks like a bunch of 4/5 starter types with some upside outside of Grayson. The issue is sometimes those 4/5 type starters pitch like AAAA guys. So far, they have.
 

It’s very early in the season. They need to take advantage of their first half schedule. Means can really help. A trade around the deadline can help.  Question is whether the SP will hold up enough for it to matter. 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think most of us expect Hall to be a reliever at this point.

 

By us I mean the OH community as a whole.  Feel free to start a poll about the topic if you think I'm off base.

Ok, so Grayson becomes an Ace, and Hall becomes an all-star reliever and you still think the upside of the franchise is "sniffing the last willdcard?"

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

How many of those guys will be better than Grayson Rodriguez in two years?

I have no idea! But is that the goal to wait 2 more years to seriously contend? At that point how many years will be left for Adley?

My contention is that with him here and our ownership hesitant about stepping up to sign him long term, the clock has begun to tick. We can’t afford to wait around and waste time for another 2 years.

[LTO's]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The good news is I’m not doing that.

You asked who was added to this team and mentioned only Adam Frazier. 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think most of us expect Hall to be a reliever at this point.

 

By us I mean the OH community as a whole.  Feel free to start a poll about the topic if you think I'm off base.

I would agree with this.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Ok, so Grayson becomes an Ace, and Hall becomes an all-star reliever and you still think the upside of the franchise is "sniffing the last willdcard?"

Funny I say reliever and you read All-star reliever.

And yep.  Assuming normal rates of injury.

I think that's a team that will need to scramble to make the playoffs.

It certainly won't be a force that you just write into the playoffs at the start of the season.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

How many of those guys will be better than Grayson Rodriguez in two years?

Who knows?   Grayson could be one of the top pitchers in the league then, or he could be the early version of Kevin Gausman.  

Gausman is a really good object lesson, actually.   He had some mediocre years for us, and some pretty good ones.  He was struggling a bit when we traded him, and that continued afterwards.  Then he figured some things out and now he’s one of the best pitchers in the league.   It didn’t happen overnight.   There were lots of ups and downs.  

Now, I happen to think Grayson has more weapons at his disposal than Gausman ever did.   Does that mean he’ll be more successful?  Not necessarily.  Does it mean success will come faster than it did for Gausman?   Again, not necessarily.  I hope Grayson is able to maximize his talent and rise towards the top quickly.  But there’s no guarantee that either of those things happen.  We’ll see.   

 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I have no idea! But is that the goal to wait 2 more years to seriously contend? At that point how many years will be left for Adley?

My contention is that with him here and our ownership hesitant about stepping up to sign him long term, the clock has begun to tick. We can’t afford to wait around and waste time for another 2 years.

That's the point.  You don't know.  Neither does Elias.  Hence the conservative, cautious, and risk-averse approach.

Any team that makes the playoffs is "seriously contending."  This team has a legitimate chance of making the playoffs.

They're "contending" now.  This is what it looks like.

They're not curbstomping their competition.  That's very rare.

[Pickles]

Just now, Frobby said:

Who knows?   Grayson could be one of the top pitchers in the league then, or he could be the early version of Kevin Gausman.  

Gausman is a really good object lesson, actually.   He had some mediocre years for us, and some pretty good ones.  He was struggling a bit when we traded him, and that continued afterwards.  Then he figured some things out and now he’s one of the best pitchers in the league.   It didn’t happen overnight.   There were lots of ups and downs.  

Now, I happen to think Grayson has more weapons at his disposal than Gausman ever did.   Does that mean he’ll be more successful?  Not necessarily.  Does it mean success will come faster than it did for Gausman?   Again, not necessarily.  I hope Grayson is able to maximize his talent and rise towards the top quickly.  But there’s no guarantee that either of those things happen.  We’ll see.   

 

Yeah, and that's my point.

Nobody does know.  That's why they're risk-averse.  That's why they're cautious.

Because it makes sense to be.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Funny I say reliever and you read All-star reliever.

And yep.  Assuming normal rates of injury.

I think that's a team that will need to scramble to make the playoffs.

It certainly won't be a force that you just write into the playoffs at the start of the season.

So the OH consensus is that Hall is expected to be an averagish relief pitcher?

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, LTO's said:

You asked who was added to this team and mentioned only Adam Frazier. 

I was talking outside the org when I mentioned those guys.

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That's the point.  You don't know.  Neither does Elias.  Hence the conservative, cautious, and risk-averse approach.

Any team that makes the playoffs is "seriously contending."  This team has a legitimate chance of making the playoffs.

They're "contending" now.  This is what it looks like.

They're not curbstomping their competition.  That's very rare.

Our definitions for contention are VERY different. And that’s ok.

Even if we somehow sneak into the playoffs with this rotation, we will be serious underdogs going into ANY series against our competitors.

Now onto the approach, Elias cannot have any certain on whatever moves he makes. But I will say this - the more talent that you have, the more certainty that you will have for success. (I know not exactly some original, brilliant idea.)

Saying that, if you acquire starting pitchers with better stuff who have had some serious success; it increases the chances of it working out and you winning. I.e. back in the day when the Red Sox acquired Pedro or when the DBacks acquired Johnson and Schilling. 
 

Now I’m not saying those hall of fame greats are any of these guys. (Alcantara I don’t know? Maybe?) 

But when you settle based on fear for risk adverse moves that don’t cost you anything, you wind up with a guy like Irvin. 
 

The Irvin’s of the world do nothing to raise of profile/odds/ceiling for winning a pennant. He’s simply not that good. However, if we want to win, we are going to need more than hope that Grayson (and dare I say Hall) become those guys. We will need more even if one does. Because our competitors have at least 2 in most instances.