DL Hall 2023

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Deloading is a thing.  Hitters use heavy bats (overloading) and light bats (deloading/underloading) to increase bat speed.  Pitchers do the same thing with weighted balls to increase arm speed.  From what I've read (which is probably nothing in the grand scheme of things), maintaining the increased speed is easy.  But rebuilding it a second/third time takes longer.  I don't think they correctly anticipated the recovery effort/time it would take plus thought some could be regained during the season.  

I do give them praise for realizing whatever the original game plan was wasn't working and that they needed to change directions.

Personally, I had written off 2023 for Hall.  And was leaning toward writing off Hall completely.  Seeing him touching 97-98 MPH is something to be excited about given his recent struggles and prior year promise.  

Sure, they adjusted well.  But to me the miscalculation at the onset counteracts any credit for the adjustment.  It ideally should have been handled better from the start.

[Tony-OH]

I went and watched this outing and overall it was a pretty good outing for him. 

He was a pretty solid 95-96 most of the outing with a 92 in there when he was throwing a 3-0 get me over pitch along with a couple of 97 and and 98s mixed in there in that first inning of work.

He was clearly working on throwing the change, but he mixed in his slider effectively at times later in the outing. With a 57% in zone, 60% whiff on 5 swings, and only 40% zcontact (zcontact rate is very important because it tells you if batters can hit the stuff over the plate) on the change, it shows it was a pretty good pitch for him but he got no chase. 

In fact, he got no chase on any of offspeed pitches which tells me the batters are still sitting dead red on him and not respecting his offspeed. Yesterday he was able to get the changeup over more which was good, but the he wasn't able to locate his slider very good and the while he did get 2 of 3 over, one was at the very top of the zone and the other was middle-middle which got hard contact (107 MPH).

I tried to figure out why batters don't chase his breaking pitches and one thing I did notice on his release that both of his breaking balls have a slightly higher pitch release point. Now, that's not all that uncommon, but I do wonder if batters are picking that up and able to recognize the spin faster do to it "popping up" out of the hand a bit.

Just something to keep an eye on.

 

[btdart20]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, they adjusted well.  But to me the miscalculation at the onset counteracts any credit for the adjustment.  It ideally should have been handled better from the start.

Agree that it's non-ideal.  I have a ton of regrets in life personally, but live and learn.  The key is "Have they learned?"  The reality is that doctors/physical therapists/trainers get stuff wrong all the time.  So do GMs and other decision makers.  

Honestly, with that type of velo loss, I thought we would be looking at some type of surgery but were just trying something to avoid it (and maybe that's still the case but it's working out so far).

At least it's not #LOLMets bad!    (Not that I want their staff as my bar for medical help!)

[Jim'sKid26]

@Tony-OH thanks for the inside scoop. I have two questions:

1) I have noticed that his SL and his CH are essentially the same speed. Right at 87 mph. I know they are very different pitch shapes for him but do you think that has any thing to do with hitters being able to recognize them easier than expected? 

2) He's a lefty so everyone wants him to have the prototypic SL ala Randy Johnson. However, his curveball was a rather devastating pitch early in his career. Why doesn't he throw it more? Is it pitch shape? Seems like a pitch that might give him three pitches of different velocities if he stuck with FB-CH-Curve. What am I missing?

[btdart20]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I went and watched this outing and overall it was a pretty good outing for him. 

He was a pretty solid 95-96 most of the outing with a 92 in there when he was throwing a 3-0 get me over pitch along with a couple of 97 and and 98s mixed in there in that first inning of work.

He was clearly working on throwing the change, but he mixed in his slider effectively at times later in the outing. With a 57% in zone, 60% whiff on 5 swings, and only 40% zcontact (zcontact rate is very important because it tells you if batters can hit the stuff over the plate) on the change, it shows it was a pretty good pitch for him but he got no chase. 

In fact, he got no chase on any of offspeed pitches which tells me the batters are still sitting dead red on him and not respecting his offspeed. Yesterday he was able to get the changeup over more which was good, but the he wasn't able to locate his slider very good and the while he did get 2 of 3 over, one was at the very top of the zone and the other was middle-middle which got hard contact (107 MPH).

I tried to figure out why batters don't chase his breaking pitches and one thing I did notice on his release that both of his breaking balls have a slightly higher pitch release point. Now, that's not all that uncommon, but I do wonder if batters are picking that up and able to recognize the spin faster do to it "popping up" out of the hand a bit.

Just something to keep an eye on.

 

Thanks for digging in.  When you noted the lack of chase my mind went to tipping.  So, I'm glad you looked into the release point too.  Having him contribute out of the pen/opener/piggyback would be a huge boost to the work load of the key staff members.

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@Tony-OH thanks for the inside scoop. I have two questions:

1) I have noticed that his SL and his CH are essentially the same speed. Right at 87 mph. I know they are very different pitch shapes for him but do you think that has any thing to do with hitters being able to recognize them easier than expected? 

2) He's a lefty so everyone wants him to have the prototypic SL ala Randy Johnson. However, his curveball was a rather devastating pitch early in his career. Why doesn't he throw it more? Is it pitch shape? Seems like a pitch that might give him three pitches of different velocities if he stuck with FB-CH-Curve. What am I missing?

Many SL and CH are about the same speed (Sweepers excluded).  It's more about the direction of the spin (pronation/supination of the release).  

SL are traditionally a weapon against same handed hitters (so when Hall is facing a LHH).  Having a SL in the bag of tricks helps him attack LHH.  (Which is why it's important for RHP to have because the bulk of hitters are RH.)

CH are traditionally used against opposite handed hitters (so when Hall's facing a RHH).  If he's going to primarily face RHH, then FB-CH-CB will be his primary pitches.

CB (at least 12-6) is as much about speed and vertical plane messing with the eye.  

[Just Regular]

The similar daily workloads for Wells and Hall yesterday is something I noticed.

We'll get to see how this regime bares its teeth for championship competition - I think right sizing pitchers to maximize dominance is the art they are trying to make into a science.

Even Grayson, Bradish and Flaherty, who seem to me a tier above Gibson and Kremer for having the stuff to scale to October, I wouldn't be shocked with automatic Third Time through the Order hooks in close scenarios.

If we don't get the division from Tampa and have to survive the 3 days thing, I think Hall and Wells if sharp have a good chance to leap into the top 7-8 pitchers and that's all you need unless things go super good or super bad.

[Jim'sKid26]

23 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Many SL and CH are about the same speed (Sweepers excluded).  It's more about the direction of the spin (pronation/supination of the release).  

SL are traditionally a weapon against same handed hitters (so when Hall is facing a LHH).  Having a SL in the bag of tricks helps him attack LHH.  (Which is why it's important for RHP to have because the bulk of hitters are RH.)

CH are traditionally used against opposite handed hitters (so when Hall's facing a RHH).  If he's going to primarily face RHH, then FB-CH-CB will be his primary pitches.

CB (at least 12-6) is as much about speed and vertical plane messing with the eye.  

My point is that, as Tony-OH said, his release point is different SL/CU from FB. The point of a SL is that "it is a FB until it's not." If it's not a FB from the point at which it is released, then it's gonna get clobbered. Which for DL, apparently it does when it's in the strike zone. Also, if his CH is telegraphed it's not a "put away" pitch either. 

So why not go with a pitch, or this case a pitch combo, that has different velocities and less of a reliance release point? The hand action on a curveball is rather obvious to most hitters. The deception is in the break and the depth of the break. It also will be 15-17 mph slower than the FB and 10 mph slower than CH. 

I think the release point issue can be fixed. Just not in mid season. I was looking for a simple fix that lets him get back to Baltimore and be effective. He won't be effective with one MLB pitch. Might want to ditch the SL, or at least throw it less often. I could be barking up the wrong tree. 

As an aside, I think your explanation of handedness for the SL was addressed in my initial post with my reference to Randy Johnson. I, however, don't agree with the CB being a pitch that's primarily effective to opposite sided hitters. Especially the 12-6 variety that is not reliant on lateral movement. Also, LH pitchers throw "back foot" SL to RH hitters all the time. And executed correctly can be very effective. Just my opinion.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Jim'sKid26
Additional thought

[George Zuverink]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Developed a highly regarded prospected that they inherited into an asset on the ML roster by now?

Managed his recovery from injury better?

It kinda seems like they were throwing stuff on the wall to see what stuck.  Why didn't they have him lift more earlier in the season instead of sending him out there with reduced velocity?

Do better. Very prescriptive.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, George Zuverink said:

Do better. Very prescriptive.

Is it worse then they finally got it right, they are so smart?

[George Zuverink]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is it worse then they finally got it right, they are so smart?

Yup

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Developed a highly regarded prospected that they inherited into an asset on the ML roster by now?

Managed his recovery from injury better?

It kinda seems like they were throwing stuff on the wall to see what stuck.  Why didn't they have him lift more earlier in the season instead of sending him out there with reduced velocity?

He had back issues.  Apparently hurt himself in gym before/during ST.  He started his Jan/Feb work in ~April.  

Edited August 6, 2023 by emmett16

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

He had back issues.  Apparently hurt himself in gym before/during ST.  He started his Jan/Feb woke in ~April.  

And?

I'm just saying they shouldn't get a ton of credit for eventually putting him on the program that helped him recover his velocity.

It's good that they eventually figured it out but he shouldn't have been pitching in the majors earlier this season.

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And?

I'm just saying they shouldn't get a ton of credit for eventually putting him on the program that helped him recover his velocity.

It's good that they eventually figured it out but he shouldn't have been pitching in the majors earlier this season.

Note to self.  Never give the Orioles credit for anything.   Draft?   No.   Only because of the pool money and great draft position.   Picking up cheap options through waivers?   No. lots of luck and great waiver spot.   Player development?   Nope.  Lots of players from previous regime.  Can’t seem to turn Hall and GRod, gifts from previous regime into aces.   
 

Success stories?  Means?  No.  Learned change and increased velo his own.  Cedric?  Nope.  Did it on his own.   
 

That’s a wrap.  Probably the luckiest most overrated organization out there.  I wish there was something they could hang there hat on!

Edited August 6, 2023 by RZNJ

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

My point is that, as Tony-OH said, his release point is different SL/CU from FB. The point of a SL is that "it is a FB until it's not." If it's not a FB from the point at which it is released, then it's gonna get clobbered. Which for DL, apparently it does when it's in the strike zone. Also, if his CH is telegraphed it's not a "put away" pitch either. 

So why not go with a pitch, or this case a pitch combo, that has different velocities and less of a reliance release point? The hand action on a curveball is rather obvious to most hitters. The deception is in the break and the depth of the break. It also will be 15-17 mph slower than the FB and 10 mph slower than CH. 

I think the release point issue can be fixed. Just not in mid season. I was looking for a simple fix that lets him get back to Baltimore and be effective. He won't be effective with one MLB pitch. Might want to ditch the SL, or at least throw it less often. I could be barking up the wrong tree. 

As an aside, I think your explanation of handedness for the SL was addressed in my initial post with my reference to Randy Johnson. I, however, don't agree with the CB being a pitch that's primarily effective to opposite sided hitters. Especially the 12-6 variety that is not reliant on lateral movement. Also, LH pitchers throw "back foot" SL to RH hitters all the time. And executed correctly can be very effective. Just my opinion.

That's fine.  I wasn't disagreeing.  I'm all for searching for solutions that work.  I was just pointing out normal pitch mixes as on Savant against various handed hitters.  There are exceptions for sure.  And there's a good case to be made for throwing your best pitch instead of forcing an average pitch because of trends/etc.

I didn't say the CB (curveball) was against opposite handed hitters.  I said CH (changeups) "traditionally" (i.e. commonly) were.  Verlander threw 51 of his 63 changeups were to LHB in 2022.  Bradish has thrown his CH 125 times to LHB vs. 16 to RHB.  Spencer Strider is an interesting case study as well.  He's really a 2-pitch pitcher (but throws a CH to LHB).