AL team to watch: White Sox

[Es4M11]

Just now, Frobby said:

Fair enough, and Cease is not pitching that well at the moment.   Of course, he’s got a really bad defense behind him, too. 

 

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Yes I know. But the problem is (or maybe not problem more of a reality) the CHI Sox know this too. In your list of prospects I don't see 1 top 50 guy. I highly doubt that Cease can be had for no top 50 prospects. What makes you believe that the sport values Cease any less (or should I say) that much less than Soto?

Also, when you are this prospect rich, I have a hard time in terms of understanding things like "paying too much". No matter what we gave up non-Grayson Rodriguez or Adley (which I am very confident that they are non-starters) for every other prospect, we have something similar/redundant. Even with the top end guys like Gunnar or Holiday, we have the other one who is very similar (5-tool, left handing hitting SS with elite plate discipline). Honestly, we have so much org talent, there are not even 2 trades for any player in the sport (who is available) that would break us. 

I hope we can get him without having to give up Gunnar. But if that is the cost to add a #1, I think that you have to seriously consider it because we are not winning anything with this pitching staff as currently constructed. We have hopes in Grayson (and rightfully so because the talent is tremendous, a solid Wells, and what? Hopes, dreams, and Means.

I want no part of Bradish, Kremer, or Gibson starting a postseason game. And DL Hall is a pipe dream. He can't even figure out how to consistently have good starts in AAA and will be 25 this season. He way more project than prospect IMO.

Cease is a piece that we don't have now, but will need in order to win in the Fall. And you get him for 3 postseasons. It doesn't have to be Cease, it can be someone like Luzardo from MIA (if available). But we are going to need someone to slide in at the top of the rotation in order to give us a legit shot to compete for a World Series. And given the way the 3rd Wild Card has opened things there are not going to be too many top guys available. Cease will be one.

Gunnar or Holiday for Cease is a non-starter. I would not even entertain it. The Orioles have plenty to offer beyond those guys, and if the White Sox won't budge, then move on to other options. Dylan Cease is not a guy worth breaking the bank for. He does not have the track record to warrant such a high cost. For all we know 2022 was a career year and with the way 2023 is going I'm not sure how you can be sure exactly what Cease is going forward.

As far as not offering a top 50 prospect? Let's see where Ortiz is on the mid-season lists...
Regardless of that, offering 4 top 100 prospects + one other pitching prospects is a pretty rich offer. Potentially 3/4 of an entire new infield, plus a top 100 pitching prospect and one other SP is nothing to sneeze at. And if the White Sox don't like it, that's fine, move on.

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm pretty high on him. I like Kremer too, but he's always been a 2 steps forward 3 back kinda pitcher.

 

Fortunately they're winning games, but that's been exposing the same guys in the BP.

Do you think it is realistic to put our odds of post season success very high with Kremer or Bradish starting games in October?

If so, I would suggest a more careful consideration of our competitors. Look at who the Yanks, Jays, Rays, Guardians, Astros, etc will bring to the party.

[emmett16]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Yes I know. But the problem is (or maybe not problem more of a reality) the CHI Sox know this too. In your list of prospects I don't see 1 top 50 guy. I highly doubt that Cease can be had for no top 50 prospects. What makes you believe that the sport values Cease any less (or should I say) that much less than Soto?

Also, when you are this prospect rich, I have a hard time in terms of understanding things like "paying too much". No matter what we gave up non-Grayson Rodriguez or Adley (which I am very confident that they are non-starters) for every other prospect, we have something similar/redundant. Even with the top end guys like Gunnar or Holiday, we have the other one who is very similar (5-tool, left handing hitting SS with elite plate discipline). Honestly, we have so much org talent, there are not even 2 trades for any player in the sport (who is available) that would break us. 

I hope we can get him without having to give up Gunnar. But if that is the cost to add a #1, I think that you have to seriously consider it because we are not winning anything with this pitching staff as currently constructed. We have hopes in Grayson (and rightfully so because the talent is tremendous, a solid Wells, and what? Hopes, dreams, and Means.

I want no part of Bradish, Kremer, or Gibson starting a postseason game. And DL Hall is a pipe dream. He can't even figure out how to consistently have good starts in AAA and will be 25 this season. He way more project than prospect IMO.

Cease is a piece that we don't have now, but will need in order to win in the Fall. And you get him for 3 postseasons. It doesn't have to be Cease, it can be someone like Luzardo from MIA (if available). But we are going to need someone to slide in at the top of the rotation in order to give us a legit shot to compete for a World Series. And given the way the 3rd Wild Card has opened things there are not going to be too many top guys available. Cease will be one.

If we make it the playoffs I’d be fine rolling with  SP1 acquisition, GRod, & Means with Bradish & Wells in pen.  

Edited May 1, 2023 by emmett16

[SpOkane]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Then we’re probably not getting Cease.  

Last time the White Sox traded an ace (Chris Sale) they got the no. 2 and 32 prospects in MLB (Moancada and Kopech), plus two other prospects.

 

If I am reading it correctly, Sale had 5 consecutive Top 6 CY seasons and had 3 years left on a contract extension. Cease doesn't quite have that track record yet. He will only have 2.5 years remaining, but may be cheaper in $ over those years. Bos also was led by Dombrowski who traded prospects like crazy. Cease will still extract quite a prospect penny though. 

I could see something like Westburg, Hall, Stowers, Mayo. LADS could easily beat that though with 2-4 of the following: Cartaya, Miller, Busch, Stone, Pepiot, Pages, Rushing. I think LAD is keeping its powder dry for Ohtani if LAA falls out of it.

 

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Do you think it is realistic to put our odds of post season success very high with Kremer or Bradish starting games in October?

If so, I would suggest a more careful consideration of our competitors. Look at who the Yanks, Jays, Rays, Guardians, Astros, etc will bring to the party.

Perhaps you missed my post just prior to that response.

 

Most GM "s will not be making massive trades like this in May. Our best hope for now is having current in-house options get on track.

 

I expect Elias to be active at the deadline, but I doubt he built up the farm system with just having an eye on 2023.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Es4M11 said:

 

Gunnar or Holiday for Cease is a non-starter. I would not even entertain it. The Orioles have plenty to offer beyond those guys, and if the White Sox won't budge, then move on to other options. Dylan Cease is not a guy worth breaking the bank for. He does not have the track record to warrant such a high cost. For all we know 2022 was a career year and with the way 2023 is going I'm not sure how you can be sure exactly what Cease is going forward.

As far as not offering a top 50 prospect? Let's see where Ortiz is on the mid-season lists...
Regardless of that, offering 4 top 100 prospects + one other pitching prospects is a pretty rich offer. Potentially 3/4 of an entire new infield, plus a top 100 pitching prospect and one other SP is nothing to sneeze at. And if the White Sox don't like it, that's fine, move on.

Would you be willing to tell me what those 'other options' are? Who do you believe that we can acquire that is better than Cease? And do you think that they will be any cheaper?

I hear you on the steep price. But we are so prospect rich that if it costs us Gunnar, we can still win a World Series without him. Heck he is not really contributing now and we have one of the best records in baseball. 

But what we don't have is good starting pitching. This staff is not going to get it done in the Fall. It's just not good enough.

And as far as cost, why would the game value Cease a pitcher coming off a 2.20 ERA season with 3 post season runs left on his contract, any less than it did Soto? And if it is less, how much less do you realistically think that will be?

Again, I get that you don't love Cease. But we are going to need somebody just as good to win when the games matter most.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

Perhaps you missed my post just prior to that response.

 

Most GM "s will not be making massive trades like this in May. Our best hope for now is having current in-house options get on track.

 

I expect Elias to be active at the deadline, but I doubt he built up the farm system with just having an eye on 2023.

I don't expect any trade to be made at the earliest late June/early July. Can Bradish and Kremer be better? Yeah probably. But IMO they are not good enough to go toe to toe against the games best in October. They just don't have that kind of talent profile.

Cease doesn't just help in 2023, he helps in 2024 (when our team will be even better than it is now with Kjerstad and Holiday up and ready to help when we make it to the playoffs then) and 2025.

Lastly, we are so prospect rich that one (even two) trades cannot empty us out.

It's just a fact, that our org talent is imbalanced. At some point THIS SEASON we are going to have to take some bats in order to get a big time arm in order to win in October. We can beat ANYBODY THIS YEAR, if Grayson becomes who we hope and who his talent projects AND if we have another arm to anchor in Game #1.

[Es4M11]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Would you be willing to tell me what those 'other options' are? Who do you believe that we can acquire that is better than Cease? And do you think that they will be any cheaper?

I hear you on the steep price. But we are so prospect rich that if it costs us Gunnar, we can still win a World Series without him. Heck he is not really contributing now and we have one of the best records in baseball. 

But what we don't have is good starting pitching. This staff is not going to get it done in the Fall. It's just not good enough.

And as far as cost, why would the game value Cease a pitcher coming off a 2.20 ERA season with 3 post season runs left on his contract, any less than it did Soto? And if it is less, how much less do you realistically think that will be?

Again, I get that you don't love Cease. But we are going to need somebody just as good to win when the games matter most.

IMO you over-value Cease. I have given what I think would be an adequate offer for Cease, and if the White Sox aren't satisfied then so be it. Cease is not a player I would chase after and go deep into the well for.

I would be much more inclined to see if Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff becomes available at some point before the deadline. I would be much more inclined to buy a rental like E.Rodriguez. There will be others that become available. There is no need to empty our pockets for Cease.

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

If we make it the playoffs I’d be fine rolling with  SP1 acquisition, GRod, & Means with Bradish & Wells in pen.  

That's a lot of pressure to put on Grayson in his rookie year and a lot of innings to put on his arm if we make a deep run. Means is a lot of hope to put on a pitcher coming off such a serious arm injury. 

And Wells is better than Bradish, so I don't see the logic there. I struggle with understanding the logic of what you have seen at the Major League level from Bradish to have reasonable expectations that he will be successful against the best teams in October.

You really envision a reality where Kyle Bradish wins us a game in the World Series? I just can't see that. 

[btdart20]

Cease would be a great get.  But I really don't think Elias will trade 5 or 6 (with one being a top 3-5 guy) for Cease.  Sure, it would buy 3 years of control for a plus arm.  But it would also temper the perennial contender goal and I believe that's the overriding agenda.  I'm not sure what (if anything) he'll do anything for a TOR SP quite honestly no matter how much we insist that it's a need.

I also believe Elias won't have Grayson, Gunnar, and Jackson on the table for any trade.  I'm less certain, but I also think he has priced Ortiz, Cowser, and maybe Kjerstad off the table too.  

Eduardo feels like a better fit from a target perspective.  A little older, warts on the profile, currently throwing well...  $15.4m for the next few years is a needle to thread too.

[Es4M11]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Cease would be a great get.  But I really don't think Elias will trade 5 or 6 (with one being a top 3-5 guy) for Cease.  Sure, it would buy 3 years of control for a plus arm.  But it would also temper the perennial contender goal and I believe that's the overriding agenda.  I'm not sure what (if anything) he'll do anything for a TOR SP quite honestly no matter how much we insist that it's a need.

I also believe Elias won't have Grayson, Gunnar, and Jackson on the table for any trade.  I'm less certain, but I also think he has priced Ortiz, Cowser, and maybe Kjerstad off the table too.  

Eduardo feels like a better fit from a target perspective.  A little older, warts on the profile, currently throwing well...  $15.4m for the next few years is a needle to thread too.

E.Rodriguez has an opt-out I thought? Most likely is a rental.

[jdwilde1]

3 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

E.Rodriguez has an opt-out I thought? Most likely is a rental.

Yes, he has an opt-out that he will almost certainly exercise unless he gets injured.  If he doesn’t exercise, he has three years remaining at approximately $16M per year.  

[Es4M11]

1 minute ago, jdwilde1 said:

Yes, he has an opt-out that he will almost certainly exercise unless he gets injured.  If he doesn’t exercise, he has three years remaining at approximately $16M per year.  

The rental aspect of it makes it more appealing to me, honestly. Shouldn't cost too much, and keeps our flexibility open. Jon and Mike should love it.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

IMO you over-value Cease. I have given what I think would be an adequate offer for Cease, and if the White Sox aren't satisfied then so be it. Cease is not a player I would chase after and go deep into the well for.

I would be much more inclined to see if Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff becomes available at some point before the deadline. I would be much more inclined to buy a rental like E.Rodriguez. There will be others that become available. There is no need to empty our pockets for Cease.

Understood. We disagree on the talent and type of pitcher that Cease is. 

As far as the MIL guys, they would be very good to get, but the Brewers will most likely be in it this year and not interested in selling.

E. Rodriguez IMO is not as good as Cease and has an opt out. So he is a true half year rental. 
 

If we are looking at things from a “more than this year perspective” (which we should IMO) how does he make much sense? We are going to have the same problem again next year. We don’t have the top end pitching talent in the org beyond Grayson.

[Moose Milligan]

I hate the make believe trade talk unless there's actually rumors of us engaged with a team to possibly make a trade.  Then it becomes a lot more interesting.

I'll only say this:  If we were trade prospects for a guy like Cease or Burnes or whomever in an effort to get us a great #2 (Cease) or a #1 (Burnes), I'd like to see JA open the wallet to keep them.  I'm really not interested in giving up prospect capital for a one or two year rental and then we gotta go out and try to find a replacement of the guy we just sent prospects for.  I'd love to get a guy like Burnes, that would immediately make us a legit team amongst the Rays, Jays and Yankees but only if we could extend him.