A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him

[sportsfan8703]

Why Cease?  Couldn’t we just trade Holliday for Ohtani?  Who else can offer that?  Holliday might be the #1 prospect in Baseball when they Re rank. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

Henderson/Holliday/Grod are in Group A

Cowser/Westburg/Ortiz/Mayo/Kjerstad/Hall/Basallo/Norby, ???? Group B

 

Teams are going to ask about Group A. When the Orioles say no then the question is how much from Group B?

If this other team is looking to trade their ace pitcher, they don't have to take inferior offers.  If you don't think Cease is an ace, let's substitute Alcantara.  Is Miami really trading Alcantara w/o getting one of Henderson, Holliday and GRod?  If the O's say no, Miami will just field other offers. 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why Cease?  Couldn’t we just trade Holliday for Ohtani?  Who else can offer that?  Holliday might be the #1 prospect in Baseball when they Re rank. 

2 months of any player including Ohtani is not enough for Holliday.  I would love to have Ohtani on this team, but no way are the O's/Angelos signing Ohtani to the biggest free agent deal ever.  They can't even sign Adley to an extension.

[clapdiddy]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Please no... we don't need to sign up for 3 years of mediocrity.

I am VERY CONFIDENT that the CHI SOX wouldn't ask for anything close to the package of players suggested that including 3 top 100 guys (including a fourth who was #1 and another one who will probably be #1 or #2 by seasons end). I mean what other org could even pay that kind of price and who would for Cease? 

But if Cease is too costly, then you pivot to another top tier guy. IMO Giolito does nothing to anchor the top of our rotation which is what we need now and will need in the future in order to enter the conversation of serious World Series contenders. 

I'll take "mediocrity" over what is in the Orioles rotation right now.    What prospect(s) is/are ready to step in right now and help this team out?  I am not saying that Giolito is a savior by any stretch of the imagination.   He should give you innings and an ERA around 4.00.   I'm only talking about extending him if he comes here and pitches well for this season.   

[interloper]

59 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

2 months of any player including Ohtani is not enough for Holliday.  I would love to have Ohtani on this team, but no way are the O's/Angelos signing Ohtani to the biggest free agent deal ever.  They can't even sign Adley to an extension.

Yeah the Ohtani talk is so silly for so many reasons.

1. The Angels probably just won't trade him. They have the best player in baseball and almost certainly will just keep him through the end of the year regardless of what their team is doing. Sometimes, on rare occasion, you just let a guy walk without getting anything for him. Ohtani is that kind of player. The Angels may just want to let their fans enjoy the guy while he's here with Trout.

2. The Orioles aren't going to trade someone like Holliday, a potential All-Star SS for many years to come, for 2 months of Ohtani. 

3. The Orioles aren't going to pony up the astronomical ($400-500 million +) deal it would take to lock up Ohtani. Yes, he's going to earn basically half a billion dollars in free agency. Our owner is John Angelos. Please.

4. Of all the places Ohtani would sign, Baltimore, Maryland on the East Coast of the US in the toughest division in baseball is not one of them. 

Edited May 5, 2023 by interloper

[Orioles0615]

2 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

Oh I agree 100%.  If they didn’t want to allocate the funds for a true #1 like Verlander, I don’t see them emptying the farm for one either.  

No of course not. They want to go after the Irvins of the world and ride the coattails and pray for breakout seasons with Kremer, Bradish types. And then not actually call up prospects and let them sit in AAA. I feel like they have no real plan for starting pitching . 

[Just Regular]

The Luhnow teams have acquired the Verlander, Cole, Greinke guy thrice and never once included the big blue chip.

I have a feeling Kyle Bradish could be a Joe Musgrove character in some circumstances.

[EddeeEddee]

2 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Initial demand? Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, and Cowser. 

And that's when the real negotiations start. 

We had a debate about what it would take to get Cease in one of the other threads.  As a comparison, when the O's traded Bedard he was only 2 years away from FA, and the O's got 5 players for him, including Adam Jones who had already had a decent taste of the majors.  And Bedard, as good as he was, came with durability issues.  

But as Cease is not pitching that well right now it could also mean the Orioles may not want to risk trading for him and target someone else, or that the WS hold him back as they may not sell low on him.  Of course the WS could claim Gunnar isn't really hitting yet either.

If I'm wrong and Elias can get Cease for as little Gunnar and Stowers (like someone else suggested), I think it's really hard not to make that trade even if Cease isn't pitching that well yet.  Best case scenario for the O's in my opinion is, if Cease is still underperforming, that they get to keep Gunnar and Holliday and have to trade 5 players (like the O's got when they traded Bedard) -- just for fun maybe something like DL Hall, Westburg, Norby, Seth Johnson and Samuel Basallo.  I think the WS will want some pitching in the return, not just hitters.  I'm no expert here of course but love to follow trades and find the negotiation part of it fascinating.

[EddeeEddee]

3 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

Oh I agree 100%.  If they didn’t want to allocate the funds for a true #1 like Verlander, I don’t see them emptying the farm for one either.  

They know they have to trade some guys soon or they'll have a log jam.  If they don't trade what it takes to get a true #1 this season it may be because they don't believe Cease or anyone else available is one.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, EddeeEddee said:

They know they have to trade some guys soon or they'll have a log jam.  If they don't trade what it takes to get a true #1 this season it may be because they don't believe Cease or anyone else available is one.  

The metrics don't support it is a great excuse for inactivity. 

[Spy Fox]

6 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

We had a debate about what it would take to get Cease in one of the other threads.  As a comparison, when the O's traded Bedard he was only 2 years away from FA, and the O's got 5 players for him, including Adam Jones who had already had a decent taste of the majors.  And Bedard, as good as he was, came with durability issues.  

But as Cease is not pitching that well right now it could also mean the Orioles may not want to risk trading for him and target someone else, or that the WS hold him back as they may not sell low on him.  Of course the WS could claim Gunnar isn't really hitting yet either.

If I'm wrong and Elias can get Cease for as little Gunnar and Stowers (like someone else suggested), I think it's really hard not to make that trade even if Cease isn't pitching that well yet.  Best case scenario for the O's in my opinion is, if Cease is still underperforming, that they get to keep Gunnar and Holliday and have to trade 5 players (like the O's got when they traded Bedard) -- just for fun maybe something like DL Hall, Westburg, Norby, Seth Johnson and Samuel Basallo.  I think the WS will want some pitching in the return, not just hitters.  I'm no expert here of course but love to follow trades and find the negotiation part of it fascinating.

Looking at their track records, Bedard is a decent comp for Cease as a late 20s pitcher coming coming off a couple ok years, then a good year, then an excellent year in succession. 

Did Bedard have that much injury baggage before the trade? I don't really remember, but he had 26-24-33-28 games started in his four seasons in Baltimore which seems pretty good at least by today's standards. 

I definitely believe that an ace can be acquired without giving up Henderson or Holliday. That five player package you cited is getting more like it but I still wonder if it takes that much. Our perception of the Bedard package is inflated by hindsight-- Jones and Tillman both turned into All Stars and very important players on playoff teams, but that wasn't destined at the time. Even though I think it was considered a strong trade for the Orioles at the time it happened. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

I'll take "mediocrity" over what is in the Orioles rotation right now.    What prospect(s) is/are ready to step in right now and help this team out?  I am not saying that Giolito is a savior by any stretch of the imagination.   He should give you innings and an ERA around 4.00.   I'm only talking about extending him if he comes here and pitches well for this season.   

It all depends on the bar of expectations that meets your satisfaction. I myself would like to the Orioles win at least ONE World Series in my lifetime, since I was 3 when they last won a title and have no memories of that. I would like to see the Orioles become relevant in the community as they put multiple seasons of deep runs in October together. I would like to not see the last 5 years of miserable baseball go to waste while we accumulated a mass trove of assets/prospects in our arsenal.

Maybe that is too much to ask?

But that is what all of my hopes as a fan are based on. I know that we have a terrible impediment in the form of a wretched owner in the way. But my hope is that not even he can/will mess this up.

I do not want to see us settle for acquiring 'decent' players that will in all likelihood not move the needle for us when it comes to the Fall. But I would like to see us take resources from the deepest prospect supply in the game of baseball and use so to acquire the difference making starter that we need. There is literally no baseball reason that we would not.

I understand that some are irrational about their assessments of the trade value of Dylan Cease. But even if he costs too much, then I believe it would be best for Elias to pivot to the next difference making starter. I do not believe for a second that such a player will not be out there and available. And we certainly have again more than any other club the means to acquire said player. 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why Cease?  Couldn’t we just trade Holliday for Ohtani?  Who else can offer that?  Holliday might be the #1 prospect in Baseball when they Re rank. 

I agree that no one can beat that offer, but I believe it will still need to be Holliday plus. I however, do not want to give up Holliday. Ohtani is on an even shorter contract than Cease. In that trade scenario, Ohtani is not even an O when we have our optimized roster because he will be as good as gone once the Mets/Dodgers scoop him up in FA.

I am an advocate for a big deadline trade to fix our top of the rotation issue, but not a short term move like Ohtani. Maybe if it was about 2 years from now. But now is not the time for that kind of thing IMO.

[Brooks The Great]

Totally disagree with the whole premise of the original post.

Suggesting that Henderson should be traded for an ace mostly because the OP thinks Gunnar won't be a great fielding third baseman (which I also disagree with) is absolutely preposterous. You only see these kinds of posts when a talented young player is in a slump. 

Gunnar is the kind of player that teams build a franchise around. Adley and Gunnar should be (and hopefully will be) the main building blocks of a perennial playoff contender over the next 5-10 years.

[EddeeEddee]

41 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The Luhnow teams have acquired the Verlander, Cole, Greinke guy thrice and never once included the big blue chip.

I have a feeling Kyle Bradish could be a Joe Musgrove character in some circumstances.

Verlander and Greinke were already older and making a lot of money. 

Cole is an interesting comparison.  Looking at his stats his numbers weren't that great the season before he was traded(he had an ERA over 4), and he was 2 years away from free agency.  Good comparison for a potential Cease trade except that Cease has 2+ years before FA where Cole was traded in the offseason, giving him 2 years to FA. 

In retrospect the Cole trade looks almost like a steal for the Astros.  Can't remember if it looked lopsided at the time or if it was considered an OK trade.