Memorial Day and the trade deadline

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I see the opposite.  An expiring contract lowers both the acquisition cost and the team's long term financial commitment.

Right.  It might be preferable to give up less prospect capital and have no financial commitment beyond this year.  The downside is you gave up something that gives you no value beyond 2023.  BUT, it buys more time for Bradish and/or GRod to emerge AND the Orioles can afford to do it from a prospect point.   Might even be able to do the same sort of thing in 2024.  It might not be a plan for long term success but it seems like it might make sense for the short term without sacrificing long term.

[sportsfan8703]

My buying list would be:

Ed Rod

Chapman

RH RF vet bat 

All rentals. We don’t have to sell the farm. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Guys who were on top 100 lists going into the season 

So the top ~8 or so prospects are off the table?  What about fast risers like Basallo or Willems?

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  It might be preferable to give up less prospect capital and have no financial commitment beyond this year.  The downside is you gave up something that gives you no value beyond 2023.  BUT, it buys more time for Bradish and/or GRod to emerge AND the Orioles can afford to do it from a prospect point.   Might even be able to do the same sort of thing in 2024.  It might not be a plan for long term success but it seems like it might make sense for the short term without sacrificing long term.

And be something palatable to ownership.

[psagawa]

Nola, Flaherty, Stroman, Giolito are all end of year free agents on teams that might be out of it come late July. Would Ortiz, Povich, and a couple lower level lottery tickets be anough for a few months of Aaron Nola at the head of the rotation? 

[Orioles0615]

1 hour ago, jamorrow91 said:

It seems that the vibes are about as good as they could be right now with the winning and a great mix of players and personalities. Some young, some middle-aged, a few vets. I don't think they necessarily should make the move right at this time.

I'm wondering, and this might not play much of a role but, is there anyone that doesn't quite fit the group? It seems like all of them get along very well and they mesh together. Does anyone see their role at risk and scoff at the idea of going from an everyday role to part-time? Or part-time to a more sporadic role?

It seems to me that Mountcastle is the one guy with a differing type of mindset than others with his approach at the plate. That type of diversity isn't the worst thing but that low of an OBP really sticks out when it's coming from a first baseman . Urias and Mateo look increasingly like their roles are in jeopardy. 

But how does the clubhouse react to a move involving one of these guys?

Winning brings clubhouse culture not the other way around. Hell the guys who thought of the homer hose aren't even on the active roster right now

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, oriole said:

I don’t think Elias trades anyone of substance for a rental. That includes the crowded middle infield. Also, if recent history is any indication…he will probably trade one of the established players to clear room for cheaper players. I could see Santander, Mateo, or Frazier being traded rather than Westburg, Ortiz, or Norby. Unless of course he has a blockbuster move that includes a player with some control but he hasn’t ever done anything like that so it’s hard to envision it happening til it does

I don't think the situations of the last five years are apples to apples comps for this season when we have a legit opportunity to go far (given we significantly add to our starting pitching). 

The Santander may have a little trade value to a good team that is trying to win where they see him adding to the middle of their order. But what will that team be likely to give us a single A prospect? A Dominican lottery ticket? We don't need more prospects. Frazier has even less trade value because he is a FA after the season and has recently produced some not so good seasons. Again, maybe a team will be willing to take him on but all we will get is salary relief. We have the 29th ranked payroll (not even 60 million) I don't think salary relief does anything for us. He is more valuable to us than another team because he is one of our few veterans and you need those kind of guys in October. There is no prospect that we can slot in to give us the production of Santander or Frazier right now. Acclimation takes a while (look to Gunnar, Grayson, and Adley for clear examples). Mateo has literally no trade value or it is so low that it is not worth considering.

Westburg, Ortiz, and even Norby have much more trade value especially to a team who is willing to offload players (a rebuilding team).

If we don't trade young assets/prospects, how else do you think that we will be able to upgrade our starting pitching? Do you think Elias is willing to role into the post season with this kind of suspect starting staff? What odds do you give us to get through 3 rounds of the AL post season with the starting pitching as currently constructed? Do you think Elias doesn't believe in this team? Do you think that he just isn't that interested in winning? Something else?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

 Something else?

Yep.

[foxfield]

Memorial Day is normally the time to take stock and begin the planning for the trade deadline.  The Orioles are certainly in the hunt and are having a very nice first half.  Part of what is so encouraging is the fact that they clearly have room for improvement and yet they are pretty well situated everywhere.

Obviously, to make a deep run they could use a TOR some bullpen help and perhaps a MOO bat.  Elias may think he has all of those potential pieces already and it is clear they might.  Of course from where we sit, we want to see this opportunity maximized.

We really do not know what ME will do, but there are two things that I think could push this to the very end of the trading deadline.

1). We have the second best record in baseball and yet we are 3 games out of first place in the AL East and 6.5 games out of last place in the division.  As of today the Orioles would take the first Wild Card and have a 4 game lead on that spot.

This means that in spite of how well the Orioles are playing, they are in a tight spot that could change with just one terrible week.  The AL East is also full of teams that are likely to be buyers going forward.

While this situation could make teams in the AL East want to move quickly...another factor is...

2). The other divisions are full of teams that haven't played well but are still in the thick of things.  Obviously Oakland isn't a factor, but not sure they have anything that anyone will want.  It might take another month to gain any seperation with the other leagues and determine who the sellers are going to be.

These two points in my mind mean that to move early the cost will be high...an area that ME hasn't seemed to want to play in.

In the meantime, I see the Orioles playing lots of folks to continue to work in the young guys and try to find hot hands to carry them toward the trading deadline.  

It's a nice spot to be in for sure...but I see lot's of handwringing here before we get clarity.

One point on trading folks from the existing lineup.  Typically it is hard to do or I guess risky for teams to do when they are playing well.  But these guys have also played with the guys coming up so moving a Santander or Urias or even Mountcastle would not surprise me if Elias got what he thought was a good return.  I do not see a bunch of those moves being made but am going to try to be open to whatever happens. And I don't think moving anyone on an expiring contract would be a big deal.

A win tonight over the MFY would be great!

Edited May 25, 2023 by foxfield

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:

Something else that complicates this is that its not clear how many sellers there will be.  Some of these other divisions (looking at you, NL and AL Central) are so bad, that even a team with a start as bad as the White Sox can talk themselves into still being 'in it'.  Will be interesting to see how that impacts this as well.  The good news is that, in the AL at least, almost no one will have delusions of the wild card, given the ALE dominance and a couple good teams in the West.  It will be division or bust for most.

That is true about the Central. But those teams will have to ask themselves given the record disparities, what are the chances of us even wining a series let alone 2,3,4 against our competition? Is just getting to the postseason that valuable, when you can trade players who won't be on the team next year anyway to help future teams close the talent gap?

[RVAOsFan]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So the top ~8 or so prospects are off the table?  What about fast risers like Basallo or Willems?

 

I don't know I thought about adding them as a caveat to my top 100 guys but we already have AR so trading one of them would probably be fine.  They are both intriguing though.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I would make a play for Eduardo Rodriguez and then have Wells out of the bullpen in the 2nd half.

Rodriguez is the one pitcher who looks like he could match up with any team’s ace.   
 

I would consider Hall or Westburg in a deal.

Wells is currently our best starter (not saying much). I don't understand the rational of taking away anything from what is already a weakness.

Westburg+ could probably land us ERod given his opt-out contract status. Not a bad idea, but I want somebody who can help us next year or we will be right back in the same boat. IMO - it's better to fix the problem than to put a band aid over it.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I don't know I thought about adding them as a caveat to my top 100 guys but we already have AR so trading one of them would probably be fine.  They are both intriguing though.

It just sounds to me as if you are basically not willing to give anything up that might potentially have value.  I don't see the O's getting much back if they don't.

[RVAOsFan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

It just sounds to me as if you are basically not willing to give anything up that might potentially have value.  I don't see the O's getting much back if they don't.

Exactly, like i said, I don't want to trade a top prospect for a rental.  I don't think this is the year to push all of our chips in.  Next year maybe I will feel different.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The roster crunch isn’t as much as the 40 man but more of a positional roster crunch.

I'm not sure of that either.

1) I think in the next few months with will see a competition of Mateo and Ortiz at SS if Mateo continue to struggle offensively and Ortiz prove worth of starting offensively and defensively.

2) Frazier is a FA after the season and probably gone then if not at the deadline.   That opens a competition be Urias and Westburg at 2B.

3) Santander probably traded over the winter.   Opens a corner OF spot for Cowser next season.

4) Mountcastle and Kjerstad competing at 1B/DH.

5) Holliday has both AA and AAA to master before they consider him for the majors.   That may happen some time next year but probably not before that.

6) Norby has 3 option years and does not even need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft his off season.

7) Stowers has options and is at AAA in case of injuries.

8.  Mayo is only at AA,  Still has to master AAA yet.  And does not have to added to the 40 man yet.

C (2)- Adley, McCann

IF/DH (7) - Mountcastle,  Urias, Ortiz, Gunnar, Westburg, Mateo, Kjerstad

OF(4) - Hays, Mullins, Cowser, McKenna  (also Kjerstad)

Optionable at AAA - Stowers,  Vavra  -  There will be injuries.

Players with options - Ortiz, Gunnar, Westburg, Kerjstad, Cowser, McKenna, Stowers, Vavra.

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by wildcard