I can't see messing with the pitching

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Let’s do it this way. Who’s a more talented pitcher? Kyle Bradish, John Means, Dean Kremer, Kyle Gibson? 

Who’s ever ability you believe in the most should be the one in the rotation. I’ve seen Means be an all-star (pre-injury) and I’ve seen him throw a no-no (pre-injury). If he’s that guy, I have confidence in that ability down the stretch. If not, he shouldn’t be one of the starters that we take into October.

I MOST CERTAINLY DO NOT have any reasonable confidence in Kremer or Bradish’s ability/talents to perform at a high level in the postseason. That sounds like a very risky proposition. 

Again, that’s why I hope that they make a trade (or even 2) to upgrade.

Overall talent is not the question and if it had been phrased that way my answer would be very different. The question OP asked is who do you move when Means comes back. We have no idea how he will perform coming back from TJ and there is a major risk he will underperform whomever we move to make room. 

I completely agree we do not have a trustworthy playoff rotation. However, I strongly disagree that Means coming off TJ will definitely be better. 

[wildcard]

I think the O's have depth.   And their record shows they can win with this pitching staff. How do you argue with 33-17?

Odds are that Gibson, Kremer and Bradish will pitch 30 starts.    Wells somewhere in the mid 20s and  with GRod it really depends on how far Elias/Hyde/Holt want to push him.  Means is coming back and will probably be a playoff pitcher.    That is 6.   

Irvin has 2 years of major league experience as a starter.  Now that he understands that if he does not pitch effectively he will be in the minors,  he may have the motivation to up his game.   I said he was the the O's 7th best starter and I still believe that.

Voth was a starter last year and he can start again if needed.   He had a 3.04 ERA as a starter last season.

Hall may help before its all over this year in the pen or as a starter.

The O's have so many relievers they can't get them all on the 26 man roster.   We are still waiting to see what they do with Tate.    Akin just had a baby which may have distracted him some but he is pitching well again at AAA.   He had a 3.20 ERA in the O's pen last year.   

Darwinzon Hernandez has major league experience,  a 1.88 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP at AAA.   In 2021 he had a 3.38 ERA for the Red Sox and you know how the O's develop staff improves pitchers.  There are a bunch of guys on the AAA staff that have a chance to help the O's before the season is over if they are needed.

I think the O's may cut Wells innings during the regular season so he can start in the playoffs along with Means, Gibson, Kremer and Bradish.  Kremer had a 3.23 ERA last season and I have a lot more faith in him than many.

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by wildcard

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Overall talent is not the question and if it had been phrased that way my answer would be very different. The question OP asked is who do you move when Means comes back. We have no idea how he will perform coming back from TJ and there is a major risk he will underperform whomever we move to make room. 

I completely agree we do not have a trustworthy playoff rotation. However, I strongly disagree that Means coming off TJ will definitely be better. 

We don't even know that Means will be back this season.  Setbacks happen.

He's advancing and that's great but you can't expect anything out of him.

[Es4M11]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure they can, they choose not to.

 

I tend to agree with you. Are you familiar with the escrow requirements for MLB contracts - how much of the salary are teams required to put into escrow when a player signs?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

These numbers can fluctuate a lot. Gibson has gone down from 4.6 to 3.8 in just two starts, so at this point in the season I do think 4.3 or 4.5 is close enough to 3.8 that you don't automatically boot a guy just to see where Means is at with his recovery. 

Bradish is currently 4.34. Combined with 3.2 he sustained over the second half '22, that is pretty solid Mean-like production. Yes, his career number is way worse but a lot of that was his 7+ first half last year.

I am inclined to agree on Kremer, but keep in mind he put up 3.21 last year which is better than Means' best year. A couple of solid starts and all of a sudden he looks like a keeper too, and as OP notes he is trending in the right direction.

 

These guys are developing and we really don’t know if they’ll be better than Old Means or Whoever New Means Is when Means is ready to pitch.  One thing I do know is that a lot of these guys, if healthy, will be pitching more innings than they ever have before, and the chances we are going to need another starter to pitch some games in August and September are pretty close to 100%.  And that’s even if everyone has stayed healthy, which would be extremely fortunate.  

[Sanfran327]

I recall back in 2014 when everyone thought we had a rotation full of 2s. Here was our top 6 from that year when we won 96 games:

Tillman (3.34; 207 IP)
Chen (3.54; 185)
Norris (3.65; 165)
Gonzalez (3.23; 159)
Jimenez (4.81; 125)
Gausman (3.57; 113)

Really, we had one #2, two #3s, one #4, and 2 #5s. That rotation had nothing to do with our fate that year. We were heavy favorites after sweeping Detroit's feared rotation of Cy Young winners and after KC knocked off the 1 seed Angels. We ran into a buzz saw and, frankly, I don't think I've ever seen someone play better than Lorenzo Cain did in that ALCS. Whether he was statistically the best player or not, he took so many hits away from us in those 4 games that I still curse his name. Anyway... getting off track...

To compare that rotation to this one, I offer this opinion: the 2023 rotation will finish as a better group than the 2014 rotation. That 2014 group was not scary at all, but pitched well to contact and let a very good defense do its thing behind them. I think each pitcher in this 2023 group has more upside than his 2014 counterpart and with better stuff. Perhaps this still isn't the postseason recipe everyone wants, but it should at least get us there. And who knows if one or more of Bradish/Wells/Rodriguez develops into that game 1/4/7 stud that nobody wants to face. 

If the opportunity is there to get a TOR starter without giving up too much, I trust Elias to make that happen, and I'll be excited if that day comes. But ultimately, I feel very good about our current rotation and the notion that it will continue to get better. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Es4M11 said:

I tend to agree with you. Are you familiar with the escrow requirements for MLB contracts - how much of the salary are teams required to put into escrow when a player signs?

Nope.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sanfran327 said:

I recall back in 2014 when everyone thought we had a rotation full of 2s. Here was our top 6 from that year when we won 96 games:

Tillman (3.34; 207 IP)
Chen (3.54; 185)
Norris (3.65; 165)
Gonzalez (3.23; 159)
Jimenez (4.81; 125)
Gausman (3.57; 113)

Really, we had one #2, two #3s, one #4, and 2 #5s.

 

I remember the thinking more along the lines that they had a rotation full of #3's but I'm more interested in who you think were the two #5 starters based off of what they did that season.  They had 5 guys with an ERA between 3.23 and 3.65.  League average ERA was 3.74 that season.

[luismatos4prez]

Don't get fooled by a strong run, this is a below average ML rotation. Means coming back will help, but acquiring another starter will be necessary to be a WS contender. 

[Moose Milligan]

I've got a feeling that Means will be ready to go by the time G-Rod hits his innings limit.

I'm not worried about messing with the pitching.  They've been good lately, but for some of these guys (Kremer, Bradish, specifically) it's hard to tell if they're getting it together after a slow start and this is who they are or if they're on some type of a heater.

When I see a statement of "I can't see messing with the pitching" I think of, like, Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz.  Yeah, I couldn't see messing with a trio like that.

With our guys that are largely unproven and still trying to find their way, I don't see how that sentiment applies.  Say Kremer has a terrible month of June, just abysmal.  Is anyone saying they can't see messing with the pitching then?  

[Sanfran327]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I remember the thinking more along the lines that they had a rotation full of #3's but I'm more interested in who you think were the two #5 starters based off of what they did that season.  They had 5 guys with an ERA between 3.23 and 3.65.  League average ERA was 3.74 that season.

I was never dazzled by Norris. He didn't allow a bunch of runs to score, but he didn't go deep into games, either. So if calling him a 5 is harsh, that's fine. Call him a 4. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I was never dazzled by Norris. He didn't allow a bunch of runs to score, but he didn't go deep into games, either. So if calling him a 5 is harsh, that's fine. Call him a 4. 

I really didn't like Norris, didn't like the trade from the start.

But if we are looking just at the one season, yea he wasn't a 5.  165 IP with an ERA below league average is at the least a very strong 4.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Mr-splash said:

Gibson is the perfect #4 starter. Unlike the Yankees we cannot afford an ace in Free Agency like Cole. We have to develop our own top guy or trade for one.

I agree that the team building strategy is different. But regardless of how you go about it, you need to be able to matchup it the postseason.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I recall back in 2014 when everyone thought we had a rotation full of 2s. Here was our top 6 from that year when we won 96 games:

Tillman (3.34; 207 IP)
Chen (3.54; 185)
Norris (3.65; 165)
Gonzalez (3.23; 159)
Jimenez (4.81; 125)
Gausman (3.57; 113)

Really, we had one #2, two #3s, one #4, and 2 #5s.

Honestly, I don’t remember anyone saying we had a rotation full of 2’s.   If anything, people around here underrated that rotation, which had the 5th best ERA in the AL.  Folks were shocked when we beat Scherzer/Verlander/Sanchez in the Detroit series.  

[Bemorewins]

51 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I recall back in 2014 when everyone thought we had a rotation full of 2s. Here was our top 6 from that year when we won 96 games:

Tillman (3.34; 207 IP)
Chen (3.54; 185)
Norris (3.65; 165)
Gonzalez (3.23; 159)
Jimenez (4.81; 125)
Gausman (3.57; 113)

Really, we had one #2, two #3s, one #4, and 2 #5s. That rotation had nothing to do with our fate that year. We were heavy favorites after sweeping Detroit's feared rotation of Cy Young winners and after KC knocked off the 1 seed Angels. We ran into a buzz saw and, frankly, I don't think I've ever seen someone play better than Lorenzo Cain did in that ALCS. Whether he was statistically the best player or not, he took so many hits away from us in those 4 games that I still curse his name. Anyway... getting off track...

To compare that rotation to this one, I offer this opinion: the 2023 rotation will finish as a better group than the 2014 rotation. That 2014 group was not scary at all, but pitched well to contact and let a very good defense do its thing behind them. I think each pitcher in this 2023 group has more upside than his 2014 counterpart and with better stuff. Perhaps this still isn't the postseason recipe everyone wants, but it should at least get us there. And who knows if one or more of Bradish/Wells/Rodriguez develops into that game 1/4/7 stud that nobody wants to face. 

If the opportunity is there to get a TOR starter without giving up too much, I trust Elias to make that happen, and I'll be excited if that day comes. But ultimately, I feel very good about our current rotation and the notion that it will continue to get better. 

Why is 2014 the standard? I don’t want us to stall out this year and get swept in the ALCS.

If you take a look outside of the O’s orb, you will see that most of our AL competitors THIS YEAR have starting staffs way better than ours. Now if you feel comfortable gambling that our guys can “get hot” and magically outpitch their guys for 3 rounds, that’s fine. I do not.