TT: Hyde's bullpen management is going to sink this team unless he changes

[Aristotelian]

57 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I've agreed with you that I think Hyde manages for matchups once the starter is removed, but I've also explained why that's not a great strategy while up 3 or more runs.

...

Besides, this is a discussion board. We discuss EVERYTHING!  

Absolutely, arguing the merits of the strategy is completely fair. That is very different than the post I responded to, which was trying to psychoanalyze Hyde and some of his players. That gets us into subjective territory rather than evidence based discussion.

So far the matchup strategy seems to be working but there may come a point in time it doesn't. I appreciate you called our some concerning trends that we can then track as the season progresses. Based on the track record so far, I am giving Hyde and staff a long leash to see how it plays out. Last year, Baker, Perez, and Bautista were all very strong down the stretch.

That being said, using Cano up five was a weird decision.  I can only think that Hyde wanted Cano to get work with an off day coming up. I am quite certain though that it wasn't in reaction to Baumann giving up the walk, as Cano would have been warming up well before that point. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Based on the track record so far, I am giving Hyde and staff a long leash to see how it plays out. Last year, Baker, Perez, and Bautista were all very strong down the stretch.

True, but all of them are on point to pitch more this year games and innings wise  (Well I'd have to check on innings for Perez).

Five pitchers pitching in 70 or more games is unheard of as far as I can tell. Maybe the Orioles are trying something that's never been done before? 

While I'm ok with giving them the benefit of the doubt, and I hope it works out for them for sure, I will remain concerned over the usage and point out times where they didn't need to use a guy. 

I get out that guys like Cano need work because sinkerballers tend to get too strong when healthy and you want that late sink. Saying that, there are four other guys getting used pretty darn often as well. 

I just don't think it's sustainable over the year, but I guess we're going to see.

[sportsfan8703]

DL Hall

If our relievers are this valuable and so important for our formula of winning, then Hall just needs to be converted to a reliever. The pen needs one more high end arm to take the load off of Cano and Bautista. That role is more important than giving Hall two more months to try and become a SP. Make the switch now and let Hall take his lumps as a reliever and grow. Hall had all offseason, ST, and had had the the first 2+ months of this season, to become a SP. He can always revisit being a SP next offseason and ST. The time has come for him to take his lumps and learn to get MLB hitters out. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Let's take Cano for example.

The most innings Cano has ever thrown as a pro (Not counting his Cuban time) was 69.2 IP in 42 games in 2021 between AA and AAA. He is currently on pace for 69 games and 85.1 IP at the major league level, and 77 games and 93 IP if you count his minor league usage.

Its actually a little worse than that.  Cano has thrown 31 innings in the 46 games he's been with the major league team.   At that pace, he'll throw about 100 major league innings, plus the 3 innings he threw in Norfolk this year, for a total of 103.

It's interesting to compare this to Akin last year.   He threw 53.1 innings in the first 85 games last year, on pace for 101 innings at a 2.36 ERA.   But he faltered in the second half, arguably from being overused in the first half, and finished at 81.2 innings.   Hyde had to back way off him and he wasn't nearly as effective after the all star break (4.76 ERA).   So, I am worried that Cano may have a similar experience, though he is being used in a different way than Akin was viz. IP per appearance. 

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

For now! 

Again, our concerns are that the overuse will affect the team later in the season. 

Let's take Cano for example.

The most innings Cano has ever thrown as a pro (Not counting his Cuban time) was 69.2 IP in 42 games in 2021 between AA and AAA. He is currently on pace for 69 games and 85.1 IP at the major league level, and 77 games and 93 IP if you count his minor league usage.

Last year, Tate (67 games and 73.2 IP), Baker (66 games and 69.2 IP), Bautista (65g and 65.2 IP) and Perez (66 and 57.2 IP) were all used in similar amounts of games, but none were within 15 innings of Cano's projected innings.

Other members of the bullpen projections:

Baumann   71 games and 86 innings
Bautista     74 games and 77 innings
Baker         77 games and 71 innings
Coulombe 71 games and 58.2 innings

So that's five relievers with projected games at 70 or more. I tried to do a little research and was not able to come up with any team that had five relievers with 70 or more games in a season. Now maybe someone will find a team and that's fine, but I still think this is going to catch up with the team in the second half if Hyde/Orioles don't find a way to start using bulk relievers to take the workload down off these five guys.

 

I think this is only a problem if you view the number if games played on a macro level to to be a problem.  In theory you could pitch someone like 105 games a year and have them never be throwing back to back.  I think most managers, Hyde included, are fairly judicious about rarely sending his players out back to back nights - Cano has had 1 or more day of rest 76٪ of the time. Are the total number of appearances more important than the usage patterns?  Also do relievers need occasional multi-day rest stints to combat fatigue over the course of the season?

Edited June 5, 2023 by Hallas

[Billy F-Face3]

12 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

DL Hall

If our relievers are this valuable and so important for our formula of winning, then Hall just needs to be converted to a reliever. The pen needs one more high end arm to take the load off of Cano and Bautista. That role is more important than giving Hall two more months to try and become a SP. Make the switch now and let Hall take his lumps as a reliever and grow. Hall had all offseason, ST, and had had the the first 2+ months of this season, to become a SP. He can always revisit being a SP next offseason and ST. The time has come for him to take his lumps and learn to get MLB hitters out. 

I've been a huge advocate for DL Hall as a starter. But I have to admit, when I was looking through his statistics last night, I couldn't shake the feeling he might be better as a closer or maybe a setup man. He's a "Stuff" guy. 

[Ohfan67]

14 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

For now! 

Again, our concerns are that the overuse will affect the team later in the season. 

Let's take Cano for example.

The most innings Cano has ever thrown as a pro (Not counting his Cuban time) was 69.2 IP in 42 games in 2021 between AA and AAA. He is currently on pace for 69 games and 85.1 IP at the major league level, and 77 games and 93 IP if you count his minor league usage.

Last year, Tate (67 games and 73.2 IP), Baker (66 games and 69.2 IP), Bautista (65g and 65.2 IP) and Perez (66 and 57.2 IP) were all used in similar amounts of games, but none were within 15 innings of Cano's projected innings.

Other members of the bullpen projections:

Baumann   71 games and 86 innings
Bautista     74 games and 77 innings
Baker         77 games and 71 innings
Coulombe 71 games and 58.2 innings

So that's five relievers with projected games at 70 or more. I tried to do a little research and was not able to come up with any team that had five relievers with 70 or more games in a season. Now maybe someone will find a team and that's fine, but I still think this is going to catch up with the team in the second half if Hyde/Orioles don't find a way to start using bulk relievers to take the workload down off these five guys.

 

A GM/organization has to take risks when you’re 29th in payroll, have a shockingly competitive team, and you want to take 2023 as far as you can. I think they are willing to push these “free” relief pitchers very far. It’s a double edged sword for sure. Don’t push them and then the orioles are probably not in the hunt. Push them too hard and then the orioles may fall out of the hunt. I think they will push these guys hard and hope for help for the second half from Hall, Grayson, and the trade deadline. I don’t think they have much choice if they want to stay near the top. 

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

A GM/organization has to take risks when you’re 29th in payroll, have a shockingly competitive team, and you want to take 2023 as far as you can. I think they are willing to push these “free” relief pitchers very far. It’s a double edged sword for sure. Don’t push them and then the orioles are probably not in the hunt. Push them too hard and then the orioles may fall out of the hunt. I think they will push these guys hard and hope for help for the second half from Hall, Grayson, and the trade deadline. I don’t think they have much choice if they want to stay near the top. 

Perhaps that is part of the thinking, but again, unless there is an abundance of replacements, if they get hurt or wear down, it won't be a great strategy.

Either way, there is a simple solution. In game where the team is up or down four or more runs, use bulk relievers to cover down on most of the innings.

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

Its actually a little worse than that.  Cano has thrown 31 innings in the 46 games he's been with the major league team.   At that pace, he'll throw about 100 major league innings, plus the 3 innings he threw in Norfolk this year, for a total of 103.

It's interesting to compare this to Akin last year.   He threw 53.1 innings in the first 85 games last year, on pace for 101 innings at a 2.36 ERA.   But he faltered in the second half, arguably from being overused in the first half, and finished at 81.2 innings.   Hyde had to back way off him and he wasn't nearly as effective after the all star break (4.76 ERA).   So, I am worried that Cano may have a similar experience, though he is being used in a different way than Akin was viz. IP per appearance. 

Good points about Cano's projected usage. I just used the easy way and added his usage in from AAA like it was his usage by the Orioles through the first two weeks vs taking his Orioles usage and extrapolating it out over just the amount of games Cano has been with the Orioles this year. Yours is probably a more accurate assessment.

Maybe someone can find a team where five relievers pitched in 70 or more games for a team, but it seems like the Orioles are on some kind of record usage. Whether that's by design (Some new technique fed by data), their abundance of close games, or Hyde's choice, or some variations of the three, it'd definitely seems like something new.

[Camden_yardbird]

I have to think that some of the potential over usage of bullpen pitchers is because Elias told him something to the effect of "We probably won't trade for an elite starting pitcher but I can and will restock the bullpen."

I could see the team operating with that strategy. 

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I have to think that some of the potential over usage of bullpen pitchers is because Elias told him something to the effect of "We probably won't trade for an elite starting pitcher but I can and will restock the bullpen."

I could see the team operating with that strategy. 

I seriously doubt that we can easily find replacements "to restock" for another Bautista or Cano level reliever. These guys have been performing at Allstar levels (some of the best in the game). The chances that you can find that level of performance is not very high. Adn then the chances of another team being willing to give that away is even lower. Cincy has one, but he has 4 years of control left so the asking price will be high. And if you are going to have to pay anyway, why not pay for a starter?

IMO one very good starter who can provide consistent length will help the BP tremendously. Right now we only have one of those guys, that is not enough to make it through a season. When we get to the part of the season that matters the most our BP guys will be fried just like last year. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

 

IMO one very good starter who can provide consistent length will help the BP tremendously. Right now we only have one of those guys, that is not enough to make it through a season. When we get to the part of the season that matters the most our BP guys will be fried just like last year. 

We get it.  You think we need a new starter.  I don't think anyone disagrees with that.

I've been on this board for a long time, I've done my fair share of thread hijacking and changing the subject over the years.  But man, you're beating the "we need a very good starter" dead horse into a bloody, unrecognizable pulp.

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We get it.  You think we need a new starter.  I don't think anyone disagrees with that.

I've been on this board for a long time, I've done my fair share of thread hijacking and changing the subject over the years.  But man, you're beating the "we need a very good starter" dead horse into a bloody, unrecognizable pulp.

HAHA ... Ok. I'll give it a rest... Maybe...lol

[Aristotelian]

Agreed, overuse of the A-Team is the biggest concern. Don't forget, Cano had three appearances in AAA before being called up in April! I was really surprised to see Cano in the last game. It does seem now that they are trying to win games there is a lot more pressure on the top guys. 

One thing about Cano, he has been very efficient when he pitches. I don't know if there is a metric for pitches per out but I would guess he would be elite. He is not afraid of contact and never walks anyone. 30 IP for him may not have the same wear and tear as 30 IP for say Felix or Baumann. 

You would think with five guys getting their innings run up that would be enough to spread the work around. They are never going three in a row and for the most part are being kept to 1 inning (exception of Cano, although I think they are starting to back off). Appears to be situation driven.

Some random points of reference:

Mariano Rivera 1996: 107 IP, used as quasi bulk/backend reliever. As closer: 80.2, 78.2, 78.1, >70 six more times.

Dellin Betances career high IP: 90 and 84 his first two years. Reduced usage and effectiveness over remainder of his career. 

2014 Royals: Holland 62, Davis 72, Herrera 70. 

Tippy Martinez: 103.1 ('83), 89.2 ('84), 80.2 ('80), 78 ('79).

 

 

[mddisney]

On 6/5/2023 at 8:42 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

DL Hall

If our relievers are this valuable and so important for our formula of winning, then Hall just needs to be converted to a reliever. The pen needs one more high end arm to take the load off of Cano and Bautista. That role is more important than giving Hall two more months to try and become a SP. Make the switch now and let Hall take his lumps as a reliever and grow. Hall had all offseason, ST, and had had the the first 2+ months of this season, to become a SP. He can always revisit being a SP next offseason and ST. The time has come for him to take his lumps and learn to get MLB hitters out. 

Yes and that should have happened a few months ago.  He should be in the bullpen now.  if he is lights out, he can go back to starter like we have seen with Wells.  He could stabilize us and we need that now.