Specific Trade Ideas

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Snell certainly has his flaws (so many walks), but this comment is absolutely ridiculous. Rodriguez is barely averaging a K per inning and has only pitched 88+ innings. 

The Giolito / Lopez trade just established the cost for Snell / Hader. If the Orioles want both of them the package is probably going to need to be headlined by one of their very top guys. 
 

how are you defining “very top guys”?

[MurphDogg]

I think the Padres are going to do what the Angels should have done and wait until their final 4 games before the deadline are played before they make their decision. I definitely expect them to sell, but if they sweep the Rangers this weekend and pick up 2-3 games over the next 4, that could change things.

Edited July 27, 2023 by MurphDogg

[HakunaSakata]

Just now, MarCakes21 said:

I still think that Mountcastle and Povich might be enough.  Might need to throw in one more, and I realize that Mountcastle can carry this team, but he also gives them a refresh at 1B when we know they aren't in a rebuild.

Might also need to throw in another lower level piece, but for two rentals, it seems like a comaprable package to what the ChiSox gave up.

Why would a team that's not going for it want Mountcastle? I also don't think he has much trade value. Povich could probably be a part of the trade, but certainly not the headliner. Also, the Padres aren't going to get a comparable package they're going to get a MUCH BETTER package. Snell/Hader >>>>> Giolito/Lopez. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

how are you defining “very top guys”?

I think the deal would have to include a Westburg / Cowser type. Probably not Holiday and G-Rod. 

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

I think the deal would have to include a Westburg / Cowser type. Probably not Holiday and G-Rod. 

Nah, I would be shocked if any pending free-agent other than Ohtani required anyone above the Ortiz/Norby tier.

A Westburg/Cowser type would require a player with at least one more year of control.

[Sydnor]

Bowden, who I don’t think knows anything and generally dislike, proposed Westburg to the Marlins for Edward Cabrera, and I actually think it make sense. Cabrera definitely has some untapped potential, with good fastball velocity, an above average changeup, a lot of red on his savant page, and a lot of years of control. I doubt it will ever happen though.

https://theathletic.com/4725542/2023/07/27/mlb-trade-deadline-scenarios/?source=user_shared_article

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edward-cabrera-665795

 

[Bemorewins]

39 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Bowden, who I don’t think knows anything and generally dislike, proposed Westburg to the Marlins for Edward Cabrera, and I actually think it make sense. Cabrera definitely has some untapped potential, with good fastball velocity, an above average changeup, a lot of red on his savant page, and a lot of years of control. I doubt it will ever happen though.

https://theathletic.com/4725542/2023/07/27/mlb-trade-deadline-scenarios/?source=user_shared_article

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edward-cabrera-665795

 

The WHIP and walks are on the higher side (especially don’t like the walks). And of course the ERA this year is not good. 

In this division I see another back of the rotation, 5 inning guy. 

If we have to give up a prospect as good as Westburg, I would like to get a player who is going to be more of a net positive to help us this year.

[Greg Pappas]

Perhaps Hader for Povich and Fabian?

Edited July 27, 2023 by Greg Pappas

[MurphDogg]

47 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Bowden, who I don’t think knows anything and generally dislike, proposed Westburg to the Marlins for Edward Cabrera, and I actually think it make sense. Cabrera definitely has some untapped potential, with good fastball velocity, an above average changeup, a lot of red on his savant page, and a lot of years of control. I doubt it will ever happen though.

https://theathletic.com/4725542/2023/07/27/mlb-trade-deadline-scenarios/?source=user_shared_article

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edward-cabrera-665795

 

Would be an interesting trade and I am not totally against it, but if they are going to only trade for one starter (and I don't think they should trade for more than one starter) at the deadline, I would rather get a veteran with stretch run / postseason experience who is about to be a free agent. 

That trade might make sense in the offseason though.

[Sydnor]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The WHIP and walks are on the higher side (especially don’t like the walks). And of course the ERA this year is not good. 

In this division I see another back of the rotation, 5 inning guy. 

If we have to give up a prospect as good as Westburg, I would like to get a player who is going to be more of a net positive to help us this year.

The walks are definitely an issue, but you have to look past that the surface numbers. His expected ERA is a 3.94, and his xFIP is 4.18. The expected batting averages on his pitches are .196 on the changeup, .204 on the 4 seam, .236 on the curve, .208 on the slider, and .316 on the sinker. Everything is above average except the walk rate, which is poor, and the barrel rate, which is below average. 

I understand you’d like more help this year, but I don’t see Elias giving up a lot for a rental. Cabrera wouldn’t be FA eligible until 2029, and he would have the potential to help down the stretch and would probably be the second most talented pitcher in the MLB rotation next year (the team would have to help hIm get to that talent by improving his control and command). I also know you like rankings, so before Cabrera graduated, he was ranked 44 in the top 100 by Kiley McDaniel and 33 in the top 100 by Keith Law.

I don’t think it will happen, but I do think it would be a creative trade that could benefit the organization this year, with the potential for Cabrera to become a mid to top of the rotation starter in the future.

[Sydnor]

12 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Would be an interesting trade and I am not totally against it, but if they are going to only trade for one starter (and I don't think they should trade for more than one starter) at the deadline, I would rather get a veteran with stretch run / postseason experience who is about to be a free agent. 

That trade might make sense in the offseason though.

What if you use Cabrera as a spot starter and bullpen arm this year (where *hopefully* the walks aren’t as much of an issue), and have him in the rotation next year? Then you could go get another more established starter, and *hopefully* have a long term solution in the rotation.

[interloper]

Credit to Bowden, that's actually a pretty fun trade scenario. And fits the Elias style. 

[Tryptamine]

35 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Perhaps Hader for Povich and Fabian?

Comparatively, remember that last year for David Robertson the Cubs got Ben Brown who is a back end of the top 100 prospect. I'd be surprised if Povich was the leading piece for Hader. 

[Greg Pappas]

11 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

The walks are definitely an issue, but you have to look past that the surface numbers. His expected ERA is a 3.94, and his xFIP is 4.18. The expected batting averages on his pitches are .196 on the changeup, .204 on the 4 seam, .236 on the curve, .208 on the slider, and .316 on the sinker. Everything is above average except the walk rate, which is poor, and the barrel rate, which is below average. 

I understand you’d like more help this year, but I don’t see Elias giving up a lot for a rental. Cabrera wouldn’t be FA eligible until 2029, and he would have the potential to help down the stretch and would probably be the second most talented pitcher in the MLB rotation next year (the team would have to help hIm get to that talent by improving his control and command). I also know you like rankings, so before Cabrera graduated, he was ranked 44 in the top 100 by Kiley McDaniel and 33 in the top 100 by Keith Law.

I don’t think it will happen, but I do think it would be a creative trade that could benefit the organization this year, with the potential for Cabrera to become a mid to top of the rotation starter in the future.

It is an interesting trade.  Trading essentially young talent for young talent, who are similarly rated and it fills needs for both teams.  Naturally we would be disappointed to lose the versatile Westburg, but this sort of move isn't that crazy..

[e16bball]

I too am interested in Snell and/or Hader, but I don’t know that we match up very well with the Padres. 

They rather famously have a pretty expensive left side of the infield, locked in long-term, and Ha-Seong Kim has been tremendous at 2B. And at present they have Soto and Tatis playing corner OF spots, although I suppose they could start preparing for life after Soto.

In terms of bats, you’d assume they’ll be looking for maybe CF types and heavy hitters for 1B/DH spots. That’s not the strength of our upper minors, because I can’t imagine we’d move Kjerstad or Mayo for rentals. Obviously they’d also want pitching, but we don’t have a ton there either. 

@Greg Pappas mentioned Povich and Fabian, and I think they’d be two names right in the thick of this negotiation. I’m not sure that’s enough to get across the finish line, though, and I’m not really sure what else we’d add that they’d be enticed by.