Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Westburg/Ortiz could be an all star up the middle combination. Dylan Cease is not worth both Westburg and Ortiz. I would do one but not both

Everyone looks like an All Star in Norfolk. I think we have to start looking at those AAA numbers a little differently. All things considered Aberdeen is probably a more accurate predictor of future offensive success. 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, zweem said:

Guardian trade proposal per The Atlantic staff article today---

Prediction: Aaron Civale traded to Baltimore for prospects Connor Norby and Cade Povich.

Sounds good to me.

I don't want to overpay for Civale's mid 2s ERA. His xERA is a full run higher and he's been topping out at around 90 mph lately. If we're going to trade with Cleveland I'd much rather make a prospect for prospect swap and target G.Williams, L.Allen, or T.Bibee. Anyone of them could slot into our rotation and help us now and long term. 

[Greg Pappas]

9 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Civale is fine, but it’s a little odd that he’s so satisfactory to a board that has been ardently seeking an *ace*, not just another mid-rotation guy. 

On some level, I get it, because at least Civale is under team control for a couple more years — which makes him a more desirable target than a mid-rotation rental, for sure. I’d probably rather do that package for Civale than Jordan Montgomery, for example, for that reason. 

However, I have more than a little concern that we’d be buying at the very apex of value on a guy who’s put up 71 very successful innings this year — but is outpitching all his metrics by over a run and has never been anything more than JAG before this season. It’s a nice shiny ERA, but is there any reason to think it continues to be anything like that? Everything in his profile says you’re acquiring a guy who’s likely to be a high 3s to low 4s ERA pitcher moving forward. 

I agree... it's a no on Civale.

[HakunaSakata]

17 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Fangraphs chimes in with a Cease proposal:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-make-some-deals-2023-trade-deadline-edition/

The Baltimore Orioles acquire P Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox for INF Jordan Westburg, CF Jud Fabian, SS Joey Ortiz, and P Justin Armbruester

The Orioles have churned out an impressive assortment of hitting prospects the last few years, but the farm system hasn’t been able to come up with starting pitching anywhere near as well. Even assuming that Grayson Rodriguez works out, the Orioles likely need more rotation help and it’s probably going to have to come from outside the organization. That might mean trading away some of their young hitters and watching them succeed elsewhere. The team is contending, but I don’t think the front office is suddenly full of wild gamblers, so I doubt we’ll start seeing names like Coby Mayo or Heston Kjerstad move for short-term rentals.

Dylan Cease, however, is not a short-term rental; the Orioles would get to keep him until the end of the 2025 season. This may be blasphemy to some, but given their respective contract situations, I’d happily give up more for Cease than I would for Ohtani. Westburg’s stock has shot up this year, and with ZiPS seeing him as an above-average starter in the majors right now, the White Sox could reap the benefits of having him on the team very quickly. Since Cease represents significant value, the Pale Hose are going to need to offer more than just Westburg, so I included two interesting offensive prospects in Fabian and Ortiz who could help shore up the organization’s lackluster depth. I also included Armbruester, a little talked-about pitching prospect who probably has a good shot at fitting in the back of the rotation in the not-too-distant future.

The big question is just how available Cease actually is. The White Sox are a mess at the moment, but they’ve given every indication that they think they’ll be contenders in 2024. That might make it difficult to get them to part with Cease without a ridiculously lopsided offer. I don’t think the Orioles would go that far, but it’s certainly worth asking.

I love how this guy writes a full paragraph on a proposed trade and THEN questions how available Cease is. It has been widely reported that the White Sox aren't trading Cease. This is just click bait drivel. 

[sportsfan8703]

Aberdeen OPS

Gunnar - .775

Westburg - .858

Cowser - .795

Ortiz - .612, .810

Mayo - .821

Maybe not every player is the all star they appear to be in AAA Norfolk. 

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Westburg/Ortiz could be an all star up the middle combination. Dylan Cease is not worth both Westburg and Ortiz. I would do one but not both

I don’t disagree that I would not like to trade both players. But when would you project that Westburg/Ortiz will be “an all star up the middle combination”? 

Would it be next year when they would have to beat our the superstar duo of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien? Do you think that they have that type of superstar ceiling and can perform at that level right away?

I ask because (at the latest) by mid season next year Jackson Holliday (who by all accounts is a much better prospect than both players) will be ready for a promotion to the Majors. So what then becomes of him in your opinion?

[emmett16]

11 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Aberdeen OPS

Gunnar - .775

Westburg - .858

Cowser - .795

Ortiz - .612, .810

Mayo - .821

Maybe not every player is the all star they appear to be in AAA Norfolk. 

So by the predictive Aberdeen numbers you’d like to wager Westburg is going to outperform Gunnar moving forward? I’ll take that bet if it’s available. 

[interloper]

35 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Fangraphs chimes in with a Cease proposal:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-make-some-deals-2023-trade-deadline-edition/

The Baltimore Orioles acquire P Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox for INF Jordan Westburg, CF Jud Fabian, SS Joey Ortiz, and P Justin Armbruester

This is such a bad trade and I'm surprised Fangraphs would put together a proposal that lacks this much foresight. 

For one, this would cripple the middle infield depth of the organization. Holliday is pretty close, sure, but consider how it also would ensure that Frazier is playing every day at 2B, Mateo would have to remain on the roster, and you might be forced to play Urias at SS at times which is his worst IF position. It severely weakens the 26-man and SS depth for a guy who pitches every 5th day. 

They can have one of Westburg/Ortiz, but both is madness. Also, the White Sox would clearly want a true SP prospect or ML SP with control (like Kremer) in return and this proposal doesn't include one. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by interloper

[e16bball]

16 minutes ago, orioles119 said:

Swap Westburg for Max Wagner and its go time.

This is the change I would suggest also. We can do one of Ortiz/Westburg and also pluck off a few pretty solid B level prospects for you as well. But we’re not doing two top 50ish prospects PLUS more for a guy in the midst of a down season.

I would love to be the one to land Cease if they make him available — but I’m afraid, as the article suggests, that the ChiSox will only pull the trigger if they get a very lopsided offer.

[RZNJ]

31 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I don't want to overpay for Civale's mid 2s ERA. His xERA is a full run higher and he's been topping out at around 90 mph lately. If we're going to trade with Cleveland I'd much rather make a prospect for prospect swap and target G.Williams, L.Allen, or T.Bibee. Anyone of them could slot into our rotation and help us now and long term. 

While a guy like Gavin Williams is an attractive trade target it’s not the kind of pitcher you’d normally add in our situation.  Still hoping for ERod, but expecting a Lorentzen type.

[webbrick2010]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t disagree that I would not like to trade both players. But when would you project that Westburg/Ortiz will be “an all star up the middle combination”? 

Would it be next year when they would have to beat our the superstar duo of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien? Do you think that they have that type of superstar ceiling and can perform at that level right away?

I ask because (at the latest) by mid season next year Jackson Holliday (who by all accounts is a much better prospect than both players) will be ready for a promotion to the Majors. So what then becomes of him in your opinion?

Perhaps "all star" is a reach but I believe they could be above average combo for many years, and I am not all that enamored with giving up multiple players for a single pitcher, where pitchers have higher injury rates

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Perhaps "all star" is a reach but I believe they could be above average combo for many years, and I am not all that enamored with giving up multiple players for a single pitcher, where pitchers have higher injury rates

I agree in that I don't want to give up both players in a trade.

However, I have a really hard time seeing them as our up the middle/double play combo for many/multiple years. How would that be possible with the presence of Holliday and Henderson? I know that one poster (not you) suggested that the O's would move Holliday to CF. But that seems very implausible given that they drafted Bradfield Jr in the first round likely as the CF of the future (especially given his 80 speed and 80 defensive scouting grades).

[FlipTheBird]

56 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Aberdeen OPS

Gunnar - .775

Westburg - .858

Cowser - .795

Ortiz - .612, .810

Mayo - .821

Maybe not every player is the all star they appear to be in AAA Norfolk. 

While I don’t like overstating minor league numbers at any level, I do not see the logic in settling on valuing one over the other this way.

[sportsfan8703]

We’re the type of team that is really hurt by not having the August trade waiver deadline. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We’re the type of team that is really hurt by not having the August trade waiver deadline. 

No we aren't.

Any decision that could be made then can be made now.